Model-Twin Randomization (MoTR): A Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Within-Individual Average Treatment Effect Using Wearable Sensors

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables; appendix include

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica

Imaging a Quasar Accretion Disk with Microlensing

We show how analysis of a quasar high-magnification microlensing event may be used to construct a map of the frequency-dependent surface brightness of the quasar accretion disk. The same procedure also allows determination of the disk inclination angle, the black hole mass (modulo the caustic velocity), and possibly the black hole spin. This method depends on the validity of one assumption: that the optical and ultraviolet continuum of the quasar is produced on the surface of an azimuthally symmetric, flat equatorial disk, whose gas follows prograde circular orbits in a Kerr spacetime (and plunges inside the marginally stable orbit). Given this assumption, we advocate using a variant of first-order linear regularization to invert multi-frequency microlensing lightcurves to obtain the disk surface brightness as a function of radius and frequency. The other parameters can be found by minimizing chi-square in a fashion consistent with the regularized solution for the surface brightness. We present simulations for a disk model appropriate to the Einstein Cross quasar, an object uniquely well-suited to this approach. These simulations confirm that the surface brightness can be reconstructed quite well near its peak, and that there are no systematic errors in determining the other model parameters. We also discuss the observational requirements for successful implementation of this technique.Comment: accepted to ApJ for publicatio

Extensions of tempered representations

Let $\pi, \pi'$ be irreducible tempered representations of an affine Hecke algebra H with positive parameters. We compute the higher extension groups $Ext_H^n (\pi,\pi')$ explicitly in terms of the representations of analytic R-groups corresponding to $\pi$ and $\pi'$. The result has immediate applications to the computation of the Euler-Poincar\'e pairing $EP(\pi,\pi')$, the alternating sum of the dimensions of the Ext-groups. The resulting formula for $EP(\pi,\pi')$ is equal to Arthur's formula for the elliptic pairing of tempered characters in the setting of reductive p-adic groups. Our proof applies equally well to affine Hecke algebras and to reductive groups over non-archimedean local fields of arbitrary characteristic. This sheds new light on the formula of Arthur and gives a new proof of Kazhdan's orthogonality conjecture for the Euler-Poincar\'e pairing of admissible characters.Comment: This paper grew out of "A formula of Arthur and affine Hecke algebras" (arXiv:1011.0679). In the second version some minor points were improve