Kıyılarda iklim değişikliğine karşı kumlanma modeli destekli kırılganlık analiz projesi-KIDEKA

TÜBİTAK MAG15.03.201

Karadeniz ve Akdeniz tsunamileri için model geliştirme ve risk analizi projesi

TÜBİTAK ÇAYDAG15.07.201

The first clinical case due to AP92 like strain of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever virus and a field survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a fatal infection, but no clinical case due to AP92 strain was reported. We described the first clinical case due to AP92 like CCHFV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case infected by a AP92 like CCHFV was detected in Balkanian part of Turkey. Diagnosis was confirmed by RT-PCR and sequencing. A human serologic and tick survey studies were performed in the region, where the case detected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty eight individuals out of 741 were found to be anti CCHFV IgM positive. The attack rate for overall CCHFV was calculated as 5.2%. In univariate analyses, CCHFV IgM positivity was found to be associated with the age (p < 0.001), male gender (p = 0.001), agricultural activity (p = 0.036), and history of tick bite (p = 0.014). In multivariate analysis, older age (OR: 1.03, CI:1.01–1.05, p < 0.001), male gender were found to be the risk factors (OR: 2.5, CI:1.15–5.63, p = 0.020) for CCHFV infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first human case with AP92 like CCHFV infection. Furthermore, this is the first report of AP92 like strain in Turkey. In the region, elderly males carry the highest risk for CCHFV infection.</p

A sensitivity study for the second order reliability-based design model of rubble mound breakwaters

The reliability-based risk assessment and structural design model (REBAD) (Balas, 1998) introduced in this paper, is a worthwhile tool in the preliminary design of maritime structures which are portrayed by vast failure consequences and significant resource expenditures. REBAD model in which the Second-Order Reliability Method (SORM) is utilized together with a cost-optimization algorithm, is implemented to Mersin yacht harbor which is constructed near the city of Mersin located on the Turkish coast of Mediterranean Sea. SORM is established on a more correct approximation of the failure surface than the first-order method. The failure mode probability is predicted by approximating the failure surface by a quadratic surface with the identical curvature at the design point. First, REBAD is implemented to the main breakwater by utilising the Hudson failure function to determine the size of armor units, then failure mode response functions were obtained for the fixed exceedance probability of several damage levels. Combining with the hydraulic model study carried out by Ergin and Ozhan (1994) and REBAD outcome, the trunk section of main breakwater and design functions were determined. The second order reliability-based sensitivity study was also carried out to systematically compare limit state equations of Hudson and Van der Meer

Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M-w = 7.4) and Duzce (M-w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenkoy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami

Application of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Model to Selected Coastal Areas of Turkey

Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. As a scientific approach to coastal vulnerability assessment a coastal vulnerability matrix and a corresponding coastal vulnerability index of a region to sea level rise are developed. In the development of the matrix and the index, indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are used. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is used to determine the vulnerability of three different coastal areas or Turkey; Goksu Delta (Specially Protected Area), Gocek (Specially Protected Area) and Amasra to present the sensitivity of the model to regional properties

Improving Coastal Vulnerability Assessments to Sea-Level Rise: A New Indicator-Based Methodology for Decision Makers

Integration of impacts of sea-level rise to coastal zone management practices are performed through coastal vulnerability assessments. Out of the types of vulnerability assessments, a proposed model demonstrated that relative vulnerability of different coastal environments to sealevel rise may be quantified using basic information that includes coastal geomorphology, rate of sea-level rise, and past shoreline evolution for the National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise for U.S. Coasts. The proposed methodology focuses on identifying those regions where the various effects of sea-level rise may be the greatest. However, the vulnerability cannot be directly equated with particular physical effects. Thus, using this concept as a starting point, a coastal vulnerability matrix and a coastal vulnerability index that use indicators of impacts of sea-level rise are developed. The developed model compares and ranks different regions according to their vulnerabilities while prioritizing particular impacts of sea-level rise of the region. In addition, the developed model determines most vulnerable parameters for adaptation measures within the integrated coastal zone management concept. Using available regional data, each parameter is assigned a vulnerability rank of very low to very high (1-5) within the developed coastal vulnerability matrix to calculate impact sub-indices and the overall vulnerability index. The developed methodology and Thieler and Hammar-Klose the proposed methodology were applied to the Goksu Delta, Turkey. It is seen that the Goksu Delta shows moderate to high vulnerability to sea levelsea-level rise. The outputs of the two models indicate that although both models assign similar levels of vulnerability for the overall region, which is in agreement with common the literature, the results differ significantly when in various parts of the region is concerned. Overall, the proposed Thieler and Hammar-Klose method assigns higher vulnerability ranges than does the developed coastal vulnerability index sea-level rise (CVI-SLR) model. A histogram of physical parameters and human influence parameters enables enable decision makers to determine the controllable values using the developed model