Unfamiliar Territory: Emerging Themes for Ecological Drought Research and Management

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today\u27s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21st century. We used a modified horizon-scanning approach that brought together scientists, managers, and decision-makers to identify the emerging issues around the ecological impacts from drought that represent key challenges to effective response. We found three broad themes within ecological drought that need attention, including novel drought conditions, transformational drought impacts, and anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and integrated review provides a roadmap to inspire the needed research and management innovations to reduce the risk of 21st century droughts

Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods

Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges