Detecting Methane Ebullition In Winter From Alaskan Lakes Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote Sensing

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2012Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas with a high radiative forcing attribute, yet large uncertainties remain in constraining atmospheric CH4 sources and sinks. While freshwater lakes are known atmospheric CH4 sources, flux through ebullition (bubbling) is difficult to quantify in situ due to uneven spatial distribution and temporally irregular gas eruptions. This heterogeneous distribution of CH4 ebullition also creates error when scaling up field measurements for flux estimations. This thesis reviews estimates of CH4 contribution to the atmosphere by freshwater lakes presented in current literature and identifies knowledge gaps and the logistical difficulties in sampling CH 4 flux via ebullition (bubbling). My research investigates various imaging parameters of space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to constrain current CH4 emissions from northern lakes. In a GIS spatial analysis of lakes on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska, comparing field data of ebullition to SAR, I found that SAR L-band backscatter from lake ice was high from lakes with CH4 bubbles trapped by lake ice and low from lakes with low ebullition activity. The 'roughness' component of a Pauli polarimetric decomposition of quad-pol SAR showed a significant correlation with the percentage of lake ice area containing CH4 bubbles and with CH4 ebullition flux. This indicates that the mechanism of SAR scattering from ebullition bubbles trapped by lake ice is single bounce. I conclude that SAR remote sensing could improve our ability to quantify lake ebullition at larger spatial scales than field measurements alone, could offer between-lake comparison of CH 4 ebullition activity, and is a potential tool for developing regional estimations of lake-source CH4

Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw

Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH4 ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH4 ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release 14C-depleted CH4 from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH4 hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older 14C ages of CH4 released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes (14CCH4 20 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger 14CCH4 in new lakes (14CCH4 8526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger 14C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH4-hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms

Using space borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to detect superseeps in Alaskan lakes

Ebullition (bubbling) is often the dominant form of methane (CH4) emission from Arctic lakes. Understanding the dynamics of CH4 ebullition in these lakes is important to the global atmospheric CH4 budget and climate models. Lake CH4 ebullition bubbles generally originate from either ecologic or geologic sources. Ecologic CH4 is produced through anaerobic microbial decomposition of organic matter within lake sediments and the talik - a thawed zone beneath lakes in permafrost regions. Emissions from these seeps can be quantified and scaled based on existing field-based and remote-sensing methods. The other type of ebullition has not been well quantified, yet emits gas at a much higher rate than ecologic seeps. Geologic CH4 seeps originate from microbial, thermogenic, or a combination of both processes altering buried organics in ancient sedimentary basins. Bubbling rates of geologic seeps are strong enough to maintain holes in thick (>1 m) lake ice – creating winter traveling hazards in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. While ecologic CH4 seeps produced in surficial sediments have modern to Holocene radiocarbon (14C) ages and those produced deeper in the talik have Pleistocene to early Holocene 14C ages, geologic CH4 seeps are often 14C-depleted due to the large contribution of carbon from fossil sources. Quantification and upscaling of geologic CH4 seepage is challenging because CH4 accumulations are distributed beneath complex, site-specific geologic and cryospheric settings. Previously, geologic seeps were studied through aerial surveys and ground truthing of open holes in winter lake ice along a north-south Alaskan transect. However, this is not efficient for quantifying these “superseeps” on a larger scale. Therefore, a remote sensing approach is needed. This work aims to detect superseeps using space borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Engram et al. (2013) showed that L-band SAR backscatter correlates with roughness caused by stratigraphically-layered ecologic CH4 bubbles trapped during freeze-up – the greater the ebullition, the stronger the backscatter. Using this correlation, we developed a new method that identifies superseeps as perennial backscatter anomalies in lake ice on a landscape scale. Results from three regions in Alaska will be presented and compared to other methods of studying superseeps

Geospatial Analysis of Alaskan Lakes Indicates Wetland Fraction and Surface Water Area Are Useful Predictors of Methane Ebullition

Arctic-boreal lakes emit methane (CH4), a powerful greenhouse gas. Recent studies suggest ebullition might be a dominant methane emission pathway in lakes but its drivers are poorly understood. Various predictors of lake methane ebullition have been proposed but are challenging to evaluate owing to different geographical characteristics, field locations, and sample densities. Here we compare large geospatial data sets of lake area, lake perimeter, permafrost, land cover, temperature, soil organic carbon content, depth, and greenness with remotely sensed methane ebullition estimates for 5,143 Alaskan lakes. We find that lake wetland fraction (LWF), a measure of lake wetland and littoral zone area, is a leading predictor of methane ebullition (adj. R2 = 0.211), followed by lake surface area (adj. R2 = 0.201). LWF is inversely correlated with lake area, thus higher wetland fraction in smaller lakes might explain a commonly cited inverse relationship between lake area and methane ebullition. Lake perimeter (adj. R2 = 0.176) and temperature (adj. R2 = 0.157) are moderate predictors of lake ebullition, and soil organic carbon content, permafrost, lake depth, and greenness are weak predictors. The low adjusted R2 values are typical and informative for methane attribution studies. Our leading model, which uses lake area, temperature, and LWF (adj. R2 = 0.325, n = 5,130) performs slightly better than leading multivariate models from similar studies. Our results suggest landscape-scale geospatial analyses can complement smaller field studies, for attributing Arctic-boreal lake methane emissions to readily available environmental variables.</p

Quantifying methane ebullition from northern lakes with space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR)

Lakes in the northern permafrost region are a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, yet large uncertainties exist in quantifying lake-source CH4. In thermokarst (thaw) lakes, the dominant pathway of CH4, ebullition (bubbling), is sporadic and spatially irregular. These lakes are also generally remote and difficult to access, resulting in challenging and costly field measurements. Scaling up field measurements from a few study lakes to regional and pan-Arctic scales relies on the assumption that the sampled lakes are a fair representation of all lakes across a landscape, which is not always the case. We present an innovative new method of quantifying lake-source CH4 using space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), an instrument which can image at night, through clouds and dry snow, valuable attributes for Arctic remote sensing. Our recent work using satellite-based SAR data showed a significant correlation between polarimetric L-band SAR backscatter from lake ice and field-measured ebullition bubbles: L-band SAR backscatter intensity increases with the amount of ebullition bubbles trapped by early winter lake ice. We developed a regionally robust empirical model based on this correlation to quantify ebullition across surfaces of over 5,000 individual Alaskan lakes in satellite SAR scenes. We produced SAR-based ebullition fluxes from each lake across the landscape and created CH4 maps for five sub-regions in Alaska. Our SAR-based lake-source CH4 fluxes compare favorably with airborne CH4 measurements on the Barrow Peninsula and Atqasuk regions, and with scaled-up field measurements. We examine how our SAR remote sensing application can 1) improve selection of study lakes for field work, 2) provide regional estimates of CH4 ebullition from lakes in remote areas where field work is limited, 3) improve lake-size vs. flux relationships for upscaling field measurements and 4) shed light on the discrepancy of top-down vs. bottom-up CH4 flux estimates in the Arctic. This new approach to estimate lake-source CH4 from ebullition offers a unique opportunity to improve knowledge about CH4 fluxes for seasonally ice-covered lakes globally

Characterizing Methane Emission Response to the Past 60 Years of Permafrost Thaw in Thermokarst Lakes

In this NASA ABoVE-funded project, we combine geospatial data products derived from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing (RS) data with targeted field observations and modeling in order to quantify ecosystem responses to Arctic and boreal environmental change. Specifically, we quantify methane (CH4) ebullition (bubbling) emissions associated with 60 years of permafrost thaw in thousands of Alaskan and NW Canadian lakes by direct observation with RS systems. To achieve our goals, we have developed statistically-significant models that are using SAR, optical and infrared RS data in order to detect and quantify CH4 ebullition emissions at intra-, whole- and regional-lake scales. We also established a relationship between observed CH4 ebullition and average annual soil organic carbon (SOC) inputs to a handful of Alaskan lakes via thermokarst-margin expansion during recent decades using field data, radiocarbon dating and modeling. Our paper we will provide an overview of the goals, datasets, and methods used for the various components of this project. We will present on (1) the collection of new and synthesis of existing field data on CH4 ebullition, thaw-bulbs and SOC; (2) the analysis of existing data from aerial surveys, SAR and optical RS of CH4 in lake ice; (3) the orthorectification of historic aerial photos for comparison to high-resolution satellite imagery to produce fine-scale regional maps of lake area change, (4) the modelling of permafrost SOC quantities eroded into lakes; (5) the radiocarbon dating of CH4 and SOC, (6) GIS modeling to produce multi-temporal regional maps of historic lake area change, associated CH4 emissions, and permafrost SOC stocks; and (7) outreach to stakeholders at Alaska village and rural community field sites. To demonstrate the scientific relevance of our work we will also showcase a set of research results that we have been able to achieve so far. These will include (1) first regional-scale RS-based estimates of lake-borne CH4 ebullition emissions; (2) regional scale estimates of lake area change from an analysis of 50 years of remote sensing data; and (3) regression models linking lake area change to CH4 emissions

Long-term change and geospatial patterns of river ice cover and navigability in Southcentral Alaska detected with remote sensing

ABSTRACTPeople who travel on ice-covered rivers to access traditional lands and resources can be profoundly impacted by effects of climate change on river ice seasonality. We used remote sensing, bolstered by citizen science, to assess trends and geospatial patterns of the ice cover in the Copper River Basin of Southcentral Alaska. Our analysis of Landsat imagery from water years (WYs) 1973 to 2021 suggests a severely diminishing season of river ice travel (delayed or incomplete freezeup, early breakup) due to increasing air temperatures. The weekly probability of an adequate ice cover for river crossings declined by an average of 53 percentage points. Ice extent was closely related to accumulated freezing degree days (AFDD). AFDDOct-Apr decreased by 15% since WY 1943, a significant warming trend. We mapped the spatiotemporal variation of ice and open water extent with multispectral and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery (Sentinel-2, Sentinel-1). We identified reaches with more reliable opportunities for winter access and others susceptible to extensive open water, differences related to flow energy and channel form. The results of this study can support local decision making and adaptation in response to rapidly changing river ice conditions, and our approach can be applied elsewhere to document change and improve travel safety

Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Strong winter warming has dominated recent patterns of climate change along the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska. The full impact of arctic winters may be best manifest by freshwater ice growth and the extent to which abundant shallow ACP lakes freeze solid with bedfast ice by the end of winter. For example, winter conditions of 2016-17 produced record low extents of bedfast ice across the ACP. In addition to high air temperatures, the causes varied from deep snow accumulation on the Barrow Peninsula to high late season rainfall and lake levels farther east on the ACP. In contrast, the previous winter of 2015-16 was also warm, but low snowpack and high winds caused relatively thick lake ice to develop and corresponding high extents of bedfast ice on the ACP. This recent comparison of extreme variation in lake ice responses between two adjacent regions and years in the context of long-term climate and ice records highlights the complexity associated with weather conditions and climate change in the Arctic. Recent observations of maximum ice thickness (MIT) compared to simulated MIT from Weather Research and Forcing (Polar-WRF) model output show greater departure toward thinner ice than predicted by models, underscoring this uncertainty and the need for sustained observations. Lake ice thickness and the extent of bedfast ice not only indicate the impact of arctic winters, but also directly affect sublake permafrost, winter water supply for industry, and overwinter habitat availability. Therefore, tracking freshwater ice responses provides a comprehensive picture of winter, as well as summer, weather conditions and climate change with implications to broader landscape, ecosystem, and resource responses in the Arctic

Ice roads through lake-rich Arctic watersheds: Integrating climate uncertainty and freshwater habitat responses into adaptive management

Vast mosaics of lakes, wetlands, and rivers on the Arctic Coastal Plain give the impression of water surplus. Yet long winters lock freshwater resources in ice, limiting freshwater habitats and water supply for human uses. Increasingly the petroleum industry relies on lakes to build temporary ice roads for winter oil exploration. Permitting water withdrawal for ice roads in Arctic Alaska is dependent on lake depth, ice thickness, and the fish species present. Recent winter warming suggests that more winter water will be available for ice- road construction, yet high interannual variability in ice thickness and summer precipitation complicates habitat impact assessments. To address these concerns, multidisciplinary researchers are working to understand how Arctic freshwater habitats are responding to changes in both climate and water use in northern Alaska. The dynamics of habitat availability and connectivity are being linked to how food webs support fish and waterbirds across diverse freshwater habitats. Moving toward watershed-scale habitat classification coupled with scenario analysis of climate extremes and water withdrawal is increasingly relevant to future resource management decisions in this region. Such progressive refinement in understanding responses to change provides an example of adaptive management focused on ensuring responsible resource development in the Arctic