641 research outputs found
Impact of Investor's Varying Risk Aversion on the Dynamics of Asset Price Fluctuations
While the investors' responses to price changes and their price forecasts are
well accepted major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in
financial markets, our study shows that investors' heterogeneous and dynamic
risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in the dynamics
of asset price fluctuations. We propose and study a model of an artificial
stock market consisting of heterogeneous agents with DRA, and we find that DRA
is the main driving force for excess price fluctuations and the associated
volatility clustering. We employ a popular power utility function,
with agent specific and
time-dependent risk aversion index, , and we derive an approximate
formula for the demand function and aggregate price setting equation. The
dynamics of each agent's risk aversion index, (i=1,2,...,N), is
modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance . We show
numerically that our model reproduces most of the ``stylized'' facts observed
in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is a key mechanism for
the emergence of these stylized facts.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure
Ultrasonic Characterization of Porosity in Composites
The determination of levels of porosity is important in the engineering uses of graphite fiber/polymer matrix composites, since the interlaminar shear strength can be greatly reduced by excessive porosity [1]. Research in making nondestructive evaluations using ultrasonics as the probing energy has taken many directions. Hsu [2] has successfully modeled the frequency dependent attenuation to predict porosity levels in composites. Kline [3] has extended the work of Hashsin and Rosen [4] to determine the porosity and fiber volume fraction of composites by solving for the elastic coefficients of the composite structure. The propagation of leaky Lamb waves [5] has also been used to model porosity levels
Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage
Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its
generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a
certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have
recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that
the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time
estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market
inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building
on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread
processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First,
we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick
adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an
on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being
computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building
aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a
monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides
informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental
results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are
discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two
exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte
Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models
Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The external coincidence hypothesis postulates that a light-responsive regulator is modulated by a circadian rhythm. Sufficient data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in animals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their lightsensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. We use 40 timeseries of molecular data to model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, the models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modelling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement
Binocular summation and other forms of non-dominant eye contribution in individuals with strabismic amblyopia during habitual viewing
YesAdults with amblyopia ('lazy eye'), long-standing strabismus (ocular misalignment) or both typically do not experience visual symptoms because the signal from weaker eye is given less weight than the signal from its fellow. Here we examine the contribution of the weaker eye of individuals with strabismus and amblyopia with both eyes open and with the deviating eye in its anomalous motor position. The task consisted of a blue-on-yellow detection task along a horizontal line across the central 50 degrees of the visual field. We compare the results obtained in ten individuals with strabismic amblyopia with ten visual normals. At each field location in each participant, we examined how the sensitivity exhibited under binocular conditions compared with sensitivity from four predictions, (i) a model of binocular summation, (ii) the average of the monocular sensitivities, (iii) dominant-eye sensitivity or (iv) non-dominant-eye sensitivity. The proportion of field locations for which the binocular summation model provided the best description of binocular sensitivity was similar in normals (50.6%) and amblyopes (48.2%). Average monocular sensitivity matched binocular sensitivity in 14.1% of amblyopes' field locations compared to 8.8% of normals'. Dominant-eye sensitivity explained sensitivity at 27.1% of field locations in amblyopes but 21.2% in normals. Non-dominant-eye sensitivity explained sensitivity at 10.6% of field locations in amblyopes but 19.4% in normals. Binocular summation provided the best description of the sensitivity profile in 6/10 amblyopes compared to 7/10 of normals. In three amblyopes, dominant-eye sensitivity most closely reflected binocular sensitivity (compared to two normals) and in the remaining amblyope, binocular sensitivity approximated to an average of the monocular sensitivities. Our results suggest a strong positive contribution in habitual viewing from the non-dominant eye in strabismic amblyopes. This is consistent with evidence from other sources that binocular mechanisms are frequently intact in strabismic and amblyopic individuals
Interactions Between Policy Effects, Population Characteristics and the Tax-Benefit System: An Illustration Using Child Poverty and Child Related Policies in Romania and the Czech Republic
We investigate the impact of the Romanian and Czech family policy systems on the poverty risk of families with children. We focus on separating out the effects of policy design itself and size of benefits from the interaction between policies and population characteristics. We find that interactions between population characteristics, the wider tax benefit system and child related policies are pervasive and large. Both population characteristics and the wider tax-benefit environment can dramatically alter the antipoverty effect of a given set of policies
Biochemical Effects of Carbohydrate Supplementation in a Simulated Competition of Short Terrestrial Duathlon
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the biochemical effects of carbohydrate supplementation in a simulated competition of short terrestrial duathlon. Ten duathletes participated in a simulated competition of short terrestrial duathlon 30 minutes after the ingestion of a 6% (30 g/500 ml) maltodextrin solution (MALT) or a placebo (PLA). This solution was also ingested every 15 minutes during the competition (12 g/200 ml); and immediately after the competition (18 g/300 ml). Samples of blood were collected at 3 time points: 1) at rest 1 hour before the beginning of the competition; 2) during the competition (approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes after the 1st collection); 3) immediately after the competition. Blood was analyzed for blood glucose, lactate, insulin and cortisol. Significant differences were observed in relation to blood glucose levels between MALT and PLA in the post-competition phase. There was also a significant difference in the lactate levels observed between MALT and PLA during the competition phase. Similarly, a significant difference in the cortisol concentrations during and after the competition phases (MALT and PLA) were observed. We conclude that maltodextrin supplementation appears to be beneficial during short terrestrial duathlon competition as evidenced by biochemical markers
The Vulnverability Cube: A Multi-Dimensional Framework for Assessing Relative Vulnerability
The diversity and abundance of information available for vulnerability assessments can present a challenge to decision-makers. Here we propose a framework to aggregate and present socioeconomic and environmental data in a visual vulnerability assessment that will help prioritize management options for communities vulnerable to environmental change. Socioeconomic and environmental data are aggregated into distinct categorical indices across three dimensions and arranged in a cube, so that individual communities can be plotted in a three-dimensional space to assess the type and relative magnitude of the communities’ vulnerabilities based on their position in the cube. We present an example assessment using a subset of the USEPA National Estuary Program (NEP) estuaries: coastal communities vulnerable to the effects of environmental change on ecosystem health and water quality. Using three categorical indices created from a pool of publicly available data (socioeconomic index, land use index, estuary condition index), the estuaries were ranked based on their normalized averaged scores and then plotted along the three axes to form a vulnerability cube. The position of each community within the three-dimensional space communicates both the types of vulnerability endemic to each estuary and allows for the clustering of estuaries with like-vulnerabilities to be classified into typologies. The typologies highlight specific vulnerability descriptions that may be helpful in creating specific management strategies. The data used to create the categorical indices are flexible depending on the goals of the decision makers, as different data should be chosen based on availability or importance to the system. Therefore, the analysis can be tailored to specific types of communities, allowing a data rich process to inform decision-making
Failure of Working Memory Training to Enhance Cognition or Intelligence
Fluid intelligence is important for successful functioning in the modern world, but much evidence suggests that fluid intelligence is largely immutable after childhood. Recently, however, researchers have reported gains in fluid intelligence after multiple sessions of adaptive working memory training in adults. The current study attempted to replicate and expand those results by administering a broad assessment of cognitive abilities and personality traits to young adults who underwent 20 sessions of an adaptive dual n-back working memory training program and comparing their post-training performance on those tests to a matched set of young adults who underwent 20 sessions of an adaptive attentional tracking program. Pre- and post-training measurements of fluid intelligence, standardized intelligence tests, speed of processing, reading skills, and other tests of working memory were assessed. Both training groups exhibited substantial and specific improvements on the trained tasks that persisted for at least 6 months post-training, but no transfer of improvement was observed to any of the non-trained measurements when compared to a third untrained group serving as a passive control. These findings fail to support the idea that adaptive working memory training in healthy young adults enhances working memory capacity in non-trained tasks, fluid intelligence, or other measures of cognitive abilities.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Blueprint for Neuroscience Research (T90DA022759/R90DA023427)United States. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (government contract no. NBCHC070105)United States. Dept. of Defense (National Defense Science and Engineering Fellowship)Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Sheldon Razin (1959) Fellowship
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