Salt Marsh Response to Inlet Switch-Induced Increases in Tidal Inundation

There is widespread concern that rapidly rising sea levels may drown salt marshes by exceeding the rate at which these important ecosystems can build elevation. A significant fraction of marshes reside within backbarrier estuaries, yet little attention has been paid to how changes in inlet geometry influences estuarine tides and marshes. In 1898, a coastal storm eroded a new inlet through the barrier beach that fronts the North-South Rivers Estuary in Massachusetts, USA. The new inlet shortened the North River by 5.6 km and lengthened the South River channel by the same amount. Modern measurements of tidal attenuation suggest that channel shortening abruptly increased mean high tide along the North River by at least 30 cm. Foraminifera communities within North River marsh sediments indicated an environmental change from infrequent to frequent inundation at the time of the 1898 switch in inlet location, which supports this hypothesis. Increased mineral sediment deposition after the inlet switch played a dominant role in allowing marshes along the North River channel to adjust to greater inundation. Following the inlet switch, sediment accreted in North River marshes at 2–5 times the rate of sea level rise (SLR). The North River channel widened by an average of 18% relative to pre-1898 conditions to accommodate the increased tidal prism. The role of mineral sediment accretion in making this marsh resilient to an abrupt increase in inundation depth highlights the importance of maintaining adequate sediment supplies in coastal regions as SLR accelerates

Taraxerol abundance as a proxy for in situ Mangrove sediment

Mangrove sediments are valuable archives of relative sea-level change if they can be distinguished in the stratigraphic record from other organic-rich depositional environments (e.g., freshwater swamps). Proxies for establishing environment of deposition can be poorly preserved (e.g., foraminifera) in mangrove sediment. Consequently, differentiating mangrove and freshwater sediment in the stratigraphic record is often subjective. We explore if biomarkers can objectively identify mangrove sediment with emphasis on their utility for reconstructing relative sea level. Our approach is specific to identifying in situ sediment, which has received less attention than identifying allochthonous mangrove organic matter. To characterize mangrove and non-mangrove (freshwater) environments, we measured n-alkane, sterol, and triterpenoid abundances in surface sediments at three sites in the Federated States of Micronesia. Elevated taraxerol abundance is diagnostic of sediment accumulating in mangroves and taraxerol is particularly abundant beneath monospecific stands of Rhizophora spp. Taraxerol was undetectable in freshwater sediment. Other triterpenoids are more abundant in mangrove sediment than in freshwater sediment. Using cores from Micronesian mangroves, we examine if biomarkers in sediments are indicative of in situ deposition in a mangrove, and have utility as a relative sea-level proxy. Taraxerol concentrations in cores are comparable to surface mangrove sediments, which indicates deposition in a mangrove. This interpretation is supported by pollen assemblages. Downcore taraxerol variability may reflect changing inputs from Rhizophora spp. rather than diagenesis. We propose that taraxerol is a proxy that differentiates between organic sediment that accumulated in mangrove vs. freshwater environments, lending it utility for reconstructing relative sea level

Modern foraminifera, δ\u3csup\u3e13\u3c/sup\u3eC, and bulk geochemistry of central Oregon tidal marshes and their application in paleoseismology

We assessed the utility of δ13C and bulk geochemistry (total organic content and C:N) to reconstruct relative sea-level changes on the Cascadia subduction zone through comparison with an established sea-level indicator (benthic foraminifera). Four modern transects collected from three tidal environments at Siletz Bay, Oregon, USA, produced three elevation-dependent groups in both the foraminiferal and δ13C/bulk geochemistry datasets. Foraminiferal samples from the tidal flat and low marsh are identified by Miliammina fusca abundances of \u3e 45%, middle and high marsh by M. fusca abundances of \u3c 45% and the highest marsh by Trochamminita irregularis abundances \u3e 25%. The δ13C values from the groups defined with δ13C/bulk geochemistry analyses decrease with an increasing elevation; − 24.1 ± 1.7‰ in the tidal flat and low marsh; − 27.3 ± 1.4‰ in the middle and high marsh; and − 29.6 ± 0.8‰ in the highest marsh samples. We applied the modern foraminiferal and δ13C distributions to a core that contained a stratigraphic contact marking the great Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700. Both techniques gave similar values for coseismic subsidence across the contact (0.88 ± 0.39 m and 0.71 ± 0.56 m) suggesting that δ13C has potential for identifying amounts of relative sea-level change due to tectonics

Degradation of mangrove tissues by arboreal termites (\u3cem\u3eNasutitermes acajutlae\u3c/em\u3e) and their role in the mangrove C cycle (Puerto Rico): Chemical characterization and organic matter provenance using bulk δ\u3csup\u3e13\u3c/sup\u3eC, C/N, alkaline CuO oxidation‐GC/MS, and solid‐state \u3csup\u3e13\u3c/sup\u3eC NMR

Arboreal termites are wood decaying organisms that play an important role in the first stages of C cycling in mangrove systems. The chemical composition of Rhizophora mangle, Avicennia germinans, and Laguncularia racemosa leaf, stem, and pneumatophore tissues as well as associated sediments was compared to that of nests of the termite Nasutitermes acajutlae. Nests gave δ13C values of −26.1 to −27.2‰ (±0.1) and C/N of 43.3 (±2.0) to 98.6 (±16.2) which were similar to all stem and pneumatophores but distinct from mangrove leaves or sediments. Organic matter processed by termites yielded lignin phenol concentrations (Λ, lambda) that were 2–4 times higher than stem or pneumatophores and 10–20 times higher than that of leaves or sediments, suggesting that the nests were more resistant to biodegradation than the mangrove vegetation source. 13C NMR revealed that polysaccharide content of mangrove tissues (50–69% C) was higher than that of the nests (46–51% C). Conversely, lignin accounted for 16.2–19.6% C of nest material, a threefold increase relative to living mangrove tissues; a similar increase in aromatic methoxyl content was also observed in the nests. Lipids (aliphatic and paraffinic moieties) were also important but rather variable chemical components of all three mangrove species, representing between 13.5 and 28.3% of the C content. Termite nests contained 3.14 Mg C ha−1 which represents approximately 2% of above ground C storage in mangroves, a value that is likely to increase upon burial due to their refractory chemical composition

Toward an Integrative Geological and Geophysical View of Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land-level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact.Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the US Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada, requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community

Reproducibility and variability of earthquake subsidence estimates from saltmarshes of a Cascadia estuary

We examine fossil foraminiferal assemblages from 20 sediment cores to assess sudden relative sea‐level (RSL) changes across three mud‐over‐peat contacts at three salt marshes in northern Humboldt Bay, California(~44.8°N,−124.2°W). We use a validated foraminiferal‐based Bayesian transfer function to evaluate the variability of subsidence stratigraphy at a range of 30‐6000 m across an estuary. We use the consistency in RSL reconstructions to support estimates of coseismic subsidence from mega thrust earthquakes. To assess the variability of subsidence estimates, we analyzed: nine examples of the 1700 CE earthquake (average of 0.64±0.14 m subsidence; range of0.24±0.27 to 1.00±0.44 m), five examples of the ca. 875 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.43±0.16 m; range of0.41±0.36 to 0.48±0.39 m), and six examples of the ca. 1120 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.70±0.18 m; range of 0.47±0.36 to 0.80±0.49 m). Our subsidence estimates suggest ~±0.3 m of within‐site (intrasite) variability,which is consistent with previous research. We also identify inconsistencies between sites (intersite) at northern Humboldt Bay greater than one‐sigma uncertainties, driven by variable foraminiferal assemblages in the mud overlying the 1700 CE subsidence contact. Therefore, we recommend at least two quantitative microfossil reconstructions across the same stratigraphic sequence from different marsh sites within an estuary to account forest imate variability and provide increased confidence in vertical coseismic deformation estimates. Our results have broad implications for quantitative, microfossil‐based reconstructions of coseismic subsidence at temperate coastlines globally

Author Correction: Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Correction to: NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5, published online 08 May 202

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce \u3e1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s)