Fibonacci Hierarchies for Decision Making

All decisions are practically made within a chainwise social setup named a decision-making chain (DMC). This paper considers some cases of an idea (a project proposal) propagating through an organizational DMC. Survival of a proposal through successive links of the DMC depends on the relative power of those links, in addition to proposal’s intrinsic value. Then it is not impossible to reject a good proposal or to fail to reject a bad proposal, either of which may generate undesired, though not detrimental, outcomes. We consider here a simple metric to assess quality of decision-making. The notion of quality here derives from “not declining (not accepting) a project that is of high (poor) intrinsic value”. As Fibonacci series establish the mathematical basis of our proposed metric, metric is simply named a Fibonacci metric.Decision making chains; Innovation; Fairness metric; Fibonacci series

Capacity auctions for electricity

Faced with uncertainty of future electricity generation supply, many regional electricity markets have adopted or considered adopting capacity markets for electricity. We study the structure of these markets and in particular capacity supply auctions such as the one implemented by PJM Interconnection (PJM), a regional transmission organization. Participants bid generation capacity into the auction, and those that win receive a capacity payment in return for having this capacity available for generation at a future delivery date. The auctions can be classified as multi-unit uniform price auctions, though price is set according to a demand curve rather than by participants' bids. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal bids as a function of cost, study welfare impacts of the auction, and show how the results can be extended numerically for more complex situations. We then use these optimal bid functions in an agent-based simulation of electricity markets, comparing energy-only markets to capacity markets and measuring the impact on both the generators and consumers of electricity. Lastly we use our agent-based simulation model coupled with reinforcement learners to determine whether or not the optimal bid strategy discovered in the beginning can be learned over time by agents participating in the energy and capacity markets.Information, Risk, and Operations Management (IROM

Click to Download Data : An Event Study of Internet Access to Economic Statistics

This study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey's Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society's data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.Data access, Macroeconomic data, Market efficiency, Event study

Does Internet access to official data display any regularity: case of the Electronic Data Delivery System of the Central Bank of Turkey

1990s were the years of enormous growth of information exchange. Rapid development, augmented coverage and wide accessibility of Internet have been the key factors of that amazing growth. People’s access to economic and financial data was one of the major areas in which new trends and patterns of usage were observed. Owing to the elevated importance of financial information in today’s sophisticated markets, it is hypothesized that the linkage between data access patterns and economic events should display some regularity. In addition, one should be able to explain part of the irregularities. This study examines the access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Electronic Data Delivery System on these grounds. Using OLS and EGARCH models, significant evidence was obtained for the existence of regularities (i.e. calendar effects) in the data.Data access; Macroeconomic data; Return to information; Economics of information

Click to download data: an event study of Internet access to economic statistics

This study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society’s data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.Data access; Macroeconomic data; Market efficiency; Event study

Discovering private trajectories using background information

Trajectories are spatio-temporal traces of moving objects which contain valuable information to be harvested by spatio-temporal data mining techniques. Applications like city traffic planning, identification of evacuation routes, trend detection, and many more can benefit from trajectory mining. However, the trajectories of individuals often contain private and sensitive information, so anyone who possess trajectory data must take special care when disclosing this data. Removing identifiers from trajectories before the release is not effective against linkage type attacks, and rich sources of background information make it even worse. An alternative is to apply transformation techniques to map the given set of trajectories into another set where the distances are preserved. This way, the actual trajectories are not released, but the distance information can still be used for data mining techniques such as clustering. In this paper, we show that an unknown private trajectory can be reconstructed using the available background information together with the mutual distances released for data mining purposes. The background knowledge is in the form of known trajectories and extra information such as the speed limit. We provide analytical results which bound the number of the known trajectories needed to reconstruct private trajectories. Experiments performed on real trajectory data sets show that the number of known samples is surprisingly smaller than the actual theoretical bounds

Privacy risks in trajectory data publishing: reconstructing private trajectories from continuous properties

Location and time information about individuals can be captured through GPS devices, GSM phones, RFID tag readers, and by other similar means. Such data can be pre-processed to obtain trajectories which are sequences of spatio-temporal data points belonging to a moving object. Recently, advanced data mining techniques have been developed for extracting patterns from moving object trajectories to enable applications such as city traffic planning, identification of evacuation routes, trend detection, and many more. However, when special care is not taken, trajectories of individuals may also pose serious privacy risks even after they are de-identified or mapped into other forms. In this paper, we show that an unknown private trajectory can be reconstructed from knowledge of its properties released for data mining, which at first glance may not seem to pose any privacy threats. In particular, we propose a technique to demonstrate how private trajectories can be re-constructed from knowledge of their distances to a bounded set of known trajectories. Experiments performed on real data sets show that the number of known samples is surprisingly smaller than the actual theoretical bounds

Fibonacci Hierarchies for Decision Making

All decisions are practically made within a chainwise social setup named a decision-making chain (DMC). This paper considers some cases of an idea (a project proposal) propagating through an organizational DMC. Survival of a proposal through successive links of the DMC depends on the relative power of those links, in addition to proposal’s intrinsic value. Then it is not impossible to reject a good proposal or to fail to reject a bad proposal, either of which may generate undesired, though not detrimental, outcomes. We consider here a simple metric to assess quality of decision-making. The notion of quality here derives from “not declining (not accepting) a project that is of high (poor) intrinsic value”. As Fibonacci series establish the mathematical basis of our proposed metric, metric is simply named a Fibonacci metric

Click to download data: an event study of Internet access to economic statistics

This study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society’s data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed

Does Internet access to official data display any regularity: case of the Electronic Data Delivery System of the Central Bank of Turkey

1990s were the years of enormous growth of information exchange. Rapid development, augmented coverage and wide accessibility of Internet have been the key factors of that amazing growth. People’s access to economic and financial data was one of the major areas in which new trends and patterns of usage were observed. Owing to the elevated importance of financial information in today’s sophisticated markets, it is hypothesized that the linkage between data access patterns and economic events should display some regularity. In addition, one should be able to explain part of the irregularities. This study examines the access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Electronic Data Delivery System on these grounds. Using OLS and EGARCH models, significant evidence was obtained for the existence of regularities (i.e. calendar effects) in the data