Misperceptions of Uncertainty and Their Applications to Prevention

This thesis studies how people misperceive risk and uncertainty, and how this cognitive bias affects individuals' preventive actions. Chapter 1, in a lab experiment, shows that how we present rare events affects how big people perceive those events. I show by means of a lab experiment that people perceive rare events bigger than what they actually are when those events are presented to them separately rather than all together. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that it is actually the same phenomenon that makes people both overinsure and prevent little, namely probability weighting. Chapter 3, with an application to cybersecurity, analyses an intervention aiming at increasing prevention at the organizational level in a field experiment. I test whether communicating information in a more effective way or letting employees experience a simulated phishing attack help to reduce falling for phishing attacks. Chapter 4 deals with the issue that people’s judgements of risk might differ in different contexts. In a lab experiment, it shows that sexual context has an impact on ambiguity attitudes

Structural Break, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetry: A re-examination of PPP proposition

In this study, we propose a new unit root test procedure that allows for both gradual structural break and asymmetric nonlinear adjustment towards the equilibrium level. Small-sample properties of the new test are examined through Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation results suggest that the new test has satisfactory size and power properties. We then apply this new test along with other unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of real exchange rate series of the sample countries. Our test rejects the null of unit root in more cases when compared to alternative tests. Overall, we find that the PPP proposition holds in majority of the European countries examined in this paper

Structural Break, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetry: A re-examination of PPP proposition

In this study, we propose a new unit root test procedure that allows for both gradual structural break and asymmetric nonlinear adjustment towards the equilibrium level. Small-sample properties of the new test are examined through Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation results suggest that the new test has satisfactory size and power properties. We then apply this new test along with other unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of real exchange rate series of the sample countries. Our test rejects the null of unit root in more cases when compared to alternative tests. Overall, we find that the PPP proposition holds in majority of the European countries examined in this paper

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel‐data evidence

This paper re‐examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit‐root procedures. The new developments incorporate non‐linearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional correlation within panel‐data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional dependence.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/boer2021-06-21hj2019Economic

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel‐data evidence

This paper re‐examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit‐root procedures. The new developments incorporate non‐linearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional correlation within panel‐data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional dependence.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/boer2021-06-21hj2019Economic

Informing, simulating experience, or both: A field experiment on phishing risks

Cybersecurity cannot be ensured with mere technical solutions. Hackers often use fraudulent emails to simply ask people for their password to breach into organizations. This technique, called phishing, is a major threat for many organizations. A typical prevention measure is to inform employees but is there a better way to reduce phishing risks? Experience and feedback have often been claimed to be effective in helping people make better decisions. In a large field experiment involving more than 10,000 employees of a Dutch ministry, we tested the effect of information provision, simulated experience, and their combination to reduce the risks of falling into a phishing attack. Both approaches substantially reduced the proportion of employees giving away their password. Combining both interventions did not have a larger impact

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel‐data evidence

This paper re‐examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit‐root procedures. The new developments incorporate non‐linearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional correlation within panel‐data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional dependence.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/boer2021-06-21hj2019Economic

Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels

In this paper, we propose a simple Granger causality procedure based on Meta analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels. Firstly, we examine the finite sample properties of the causality test through Monte Carlo experiments for panels characterized by both cross-section independency and cross-section dependency. Then, we apply the procedure for investigating the export led growth hypothesis in a panel data of twenty OECD countries.Granger causality Meta analysis Mixed panels Cross-sectional dependency

The effects of capital inflows on Turkish macroeconomic performance

Capital inflows are important factor affecting macroeconomic performance, such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, output, and price level. However, the components of capital inflows are also important. Capital inflows in the forms of portfolio investment liabilities, foreign direct investment, and other investment liabilities may affect these macroeconomic variables differently. The main focus of this study is to analyze the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in response to the different components of capital inflow shocks for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:1 to 2012:12 by utilizing a vector autoregression model. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York