Multiple Information Sources and Equilibrium in Financial Markets

The purpose of the dissertation is to examine the interaction among multiple information sources in financial markets such as among analysts and firm managers and the effect of these interactions on the information available in financial markets. In the first chapter, analysts of heterogeneous abilities may choose which firm to cover, firms with or without prior coverage, and then issue earnings forecasts. The information an analyst observes depends on his ability and may be correlated with that of other analysts who cover the same firm. It is shown that analysts with career concerns, i.e., who aim to appear well informed, may differ in their coverage decisions. Thus, analyst initiations of coverage provide information about analysts’ abilities. Also, depending on the correlation of analysts’ information and the prevalence of competent analysts, analysts’ reputations are not necessarily monotonic in forecast accuracy, in contrast to the prevalent assumption in the empirical literature. Further, incompetent analysts bias their forecast if their information is not sufficiently precise. It is shown that forecasting bias is more likely when a few analysts cover the same firm than when an analyst initiates exclusive firm coverage. In the second chapter, the interaction between analysts and firms’ managers is examined. A firm’s manager may be regarding future demand and may disclose it at his discretion. An analyst who covers the firm’s industry observes relevant information and issues a (possibly biased) forecast. Whether the analyst issues a biased or unbiased forecast is unknown to investors, who price the firm based on the available information. It is shown that investors’ beliefs about the manager’s information endowment and the analyst’s forecasting objective are endogenously intertwined. Thus, in addition to the direct role of the analyst’s forecast in providing information, the forecast has an indirect effect by influencing investors’ beliefs regarding the manager’s information endowment. If the analyst’s forecast comes after the manager’s possible disclosure, it is shown that analyst coverage crowds out the manager’s disclosure compared to the case without coverage. If the analyst’s forecast precedes the manager’s disclosure, the manager may disclose his information even when the analyst issues a positively biased forecast

With a Grain of Salt: Uncertain Relevance of External Information and Firm Disclosures

This paper examines how uncertainty about the relevance of external signals (such as news about a competitor or about changes in macroeconomic factors) influences investor beliefs, market prices and voluntary disclosures by companies. Despite assuming independence between the signal relevance and the endowment with information of a firm manager, our results show that: (i) favorable external signals are perceived to be less relevant; (ii) because such signals are taken ``with a grain of salt," the investor beliefs that the manager is endowed with unfavorable information are reinforced. As a consequence, a discontinuity in investor beliefs and non-monotonicity in stock prices may occur, such that more favorable external signals could paradoxically lead to a decrease in market valuation. In line with the growing empirical evidence in this area, our model predicts asymmetric price reactions to favorable and unfavorable news as well as potential price declines following firm disclosures

Frontline Maintenance Treatment for Ovarian Cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Advanced epithelial ovarian cancer remains the most lethal gynaecological cancer. Most patients with advanced disease will relapse within 3 years after primary treatment with surgery and chemotherapy. Recurrences become increasing difficult to treat due to the emergence of drug resistance and 5-year survival has changed little over the last decade. Maintenance treatment, here defined as treatment given beyond primary chemotherapy, can both consolidate the response and prolong the control of disease which is an approach to improve survival. RECENT FINDINGS: Here we review maintenance strategies such as targeting angiogenesis, interference of DNA repair through inhibition of PARP, combinations of targeting agents, and immunotherapy and hormonal therapy. Much has been learnt from the success and challenges of these treatments that have in the last few years which led to significant reduction in disease recurrence, changed the guidelines for treatment, and established a new paradigm for the treatment of ovarian cancer

A genomic map of the effects of linked selection in Drosophila

Natural selection at one site shapes patterns of genetic variation at linked sites. Quantifying the effects of 'linked selection' on levels of genetic diversity is key to making reliable inference about demography, building a null model in scans for targets of adaptation, and learning about the dynamics of natural selection. Here, we introduce the first method that jointly infers parameters of distinct modes of linked selection, notably background selection and selective sweeps, from genome-wide diversity data, functional annotations and genetic maps. The central idea is to calculate the probability that a neutral site is polymorphic given local annotations, substitution patterns, and recombination rates. Information is then combined across sites and samples using composite likelihood in order to estimate genome-wide parameters of distinct modes of selection. In addition to parameter estimation, this approach yields a map of the expected neutral diversity levels along the genome. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we apply it to genome-wide resequencing data from 125 lines in Drosophila melanogaster and reliably predict diversity levels at the 1Mb scale. Our results corroborate estimates of a high fraction of beneficial substitutions in proteins and untranslated regions (UTR). They allow us to distinguish between the contribution of sweeps and other modes of selection around amino acid substitutions and to uncover evidence for pervasive sweeps in untranslated regions (UTRs). Our inference further suggests a substantial effect of linked selection from non-classic sweeps. More generally, we demonstrate that linked selection has had a larger effect in reducing diversity levels and increasing their variance in D. melanogaster than previously appreciated

Empathic Patterns in Complex Discourse

Successful functioning at organizational settings in a complex, shifting and vague era, such as the Covid- 19 pandemic, requires soft skills. The present study attempts to contribute to the existing body of knowledge on empathy - an essential 21st century soft skill - by honing on the explicit and expressive aspects of empathic competencies. In accordance with our aim to identify, transcribe and demonstrate empathic patterns in complex interactions in the field of education, we conducted a collaborative qualitative analysis of videotaped simulations of emotionally charged interactions, which occur in school and other educational settings. This led to the development of the Empathic Patterns in Interpersonal Communication (EPIC) conceptual model addressing cognitive, emotional and behavioral elements of empathy. The importance of EPIC, which represents an initial step in conceptualizing empathic patterns, is that it could be implemented as a practical tool that encourages effective communication among students and teachers

Numerical Characterization of Cohesive and Non-Cohesive ‘Sediments’ under Different Consolidation States Using 3D DEM Triaxial Experiments

The Discrete Element Method has been widely used to simulate geo-materials due to time and scale limitations met in the field and laboratories. While cohesionless geo-materials were the focus of many previous studies, the deformation of cohesive geo-materials in 3D remained poorly characterized. Here, we aimed to generate a range of numerical ‘sediments’, assess their mechanical response to stress and compare their response with laboratory tests, focusing on differences between the micro- and macro-material properties. We simulated two endmembers—clay (cohesive) and sand (cohesionless). The materials were tested in a 3D triaxial numerical setup, under different simulated burial stresses and consolidation states. Variations in particle contact or individual bond strengths generate first order influence on the stress–strain response, i.e., a different deformation style of the numerical sand or clay. Increased burial depth generates a second order influence, elevating peak shear strength. Loose and dense consolidation states generate a third order influence of the endmember level. The results replicate a range of sediment compositions, empirical behaviors and conditions. We propose a procedure to characterize sediments numerically. The numerical ‘sediments’ can be applied to simulate processes in sediments exhibiting variations in strength due to post-seismic consolidation, bioturbation or variations in sedimentation rates

Impact of Conditions of Water Supply on the Germination of Tomato and Pepper Seeds

The influence of the cold radiofrequency air plasma treatment on the imbibition and germination of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and pepper (Capsicum annuum) seeds, exerted to conditions appearing in natural seedbeds, was investigated. Various conditions of water supply (from nonrestricted water supply to water drought stress) to the germinating seeds were studied. Plasma treatment markedly increased the water imbibition in the case of tomato seeds under limited water availability conditions. Cold radiofrequency plasma treatment had no noticeable impact on the germination of tomato and pepper seeds under the conditions of nonrestricted water supply. In the case of drought stress for both studied cultivars, the cold plasma treatment essentially influenced the germination rate and the kinetics of germination (the median of the Richards’ curve was changed essentially under conditions of water drought)

Numerical characterization of cohesive and non-cohesive 'sediments' under different consolidation states using 3D DEM triaxial experiments

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Elyashiv, H., Bookman, R., Siemann, L., ten Brink, U., & Huhn, K. Numerical characterization of cohesive and non-cohesive 'sediments' under different consolidation states using 3D DEM triaxial experiments. Processes, 8(10), (2020): 1252, doi:10.3390/pr8101252.The Discrete Element Method has been widely used to simulate geo-materials due to time and scale limitations met in the field and laboratories. While cohesionless geo-materials were the focus of many previous studies, the deformation of cohesive geo-materials in 3D remained poorly characterized. Here, we aimed to generate a range of numerical ‘sediments’, assess their mechanical response to stress and compare their response with laboratory tests, focusing on differences between the micro- and macro-material properties. We simulated two endmembers—clay (cohesive) and sand (cohesionless). The materials were tested in a 3D triaxial numerical setup, under different simulated burial stresses and consolidation states. Variations in particle contact or individual bond strengths generate first order influence on the stress–strain response, i.e., a different deformation style of the numerical sand or clay. Increased burial depth generates a second order influence, elevating peak shear strength. Loose and dense consolidation states generate a third order influence of the endmember level. The results replicate a range of sediment compositions, empirical behaviors and conditions. We propose a procedure to characterize sediments numerically. The numerical ‘sediments’ can be applied to simulate processes in sediments exhibiting variations in strength due to post-seismic consolidation, bioturbation or variations in sedimentation rates.This research received no external funding

Green Comparable Alternatives of Hydrazines-Based Monopropellant and Bipropellant Rocket Systems

Concepts are presented for “green” (with reduced hazards) replacements for monopropellant hydrazine propulsion systems and for hypergolic bipropellant systems while maintaining similar performance. At the onset of the “green propulsion” age, “green” alternatives to hydrazine propulsion have been emerging. The introduction rate of these into space systems is very slow due to the conservatism of the space propulsion industry. The concept presented here for monopropellant hydrazine systems offers gradual conversion to “green propellants” by dual capability of conventional hydrazine systems and ammonium dinitramide (ADN)-based systems. An initial risk reduction program has been carried out for materializing the concept. It includes proof of concept of dual use of all propulsion system parts. Materials compatibility and actual operation have been demonstrated. For bipropellants, we present the emerging “green” hypergolic system based on kerosene and peroxide, similar in performance to MMH/N2O4. Results of the proof-of-concept and development model systems are presented. The experimental results of various engine types demonstrate the capability to operate in both pulse and steady-state modes and the ability to produce different thrust levels. The fuel and oxidizer show very robust hypergolicity and short ignition delay times, as well as characteristic velocity efficiency exceeding 98%

ICON 9-an international phase III randomized study to evaluate the efficacy of maintenance therapy with olaparib and cediranib or olaparib alone in patients with relapsed platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer following a response to platinum-based chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Two novel biological agents-cediranib targeting angiogenesis, and olaparib targeting DNA repair processes-have individually led to an improvement in ovarian cancer control. The aim of ICON9 is to investigate the combination of cediranib and olaparib maintenance in recurrent ovarian cancer following platinum-based therapy. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of maintenance treatment with olaparib in combination with cediranib compared with olaparib alone following a response to platinum-based chemotherapy in women with platinum-sensitive ovarian, fallopian tube or peritoneal cancer during first relapse. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: Maintenance therapy with cediranib and olaparib in combination is associated with improved patient outcomes compared with olaparib alone. TRIAL DESIGN: International phase III randomized controlled trial. Following a response to platinum-based chemotherapy patients are randomized 1:1 to either oral olaparib and cediranib (intervention arm) or oral olaparib alone (control arm). MAJOR INCLUSION CRITERIA: Patients with a known diagnosis of high grade serous or endometrioid carcinoma of the ovary, fallopian tube or peritoneum, progressing more than 6 months after first-line platinum-based chemotherapy, who have responded to second-line platinum-based chemotherapy. PRIMARY ENDPOINTS: Progression-free and overall survival. Co-primary endpoints to be assessed using a fixed-sequence gatekeeping approach: (1) progression-free survival, all patients; (2) progression-free survival, BRCA wild type; (3) overall survival, all patients; (4) overall survival, BRCA wild type. SAMPLE SIZE: 618 patients will be recruited. ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS: Accrual is expected to be completed in 2024 with presentation of results in 2025. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03278717