Adapting the Number of Particles in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods through an Online Scheme for Convergence Assessment

Particle filters are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions of hidden states in state-space models by means of sets of weighted particles. While the convergence of the filter is guaranteed when the number of particles tends to infinity, the quality of the approximation is usually unknown but strongly dependent on the number of particles. In this paper, we propose a novel method for assessing the convergence of particle filters online manner, as well as a simple scheme for the online adaptation of the number of particles based on the convergence assessment. The method is based on a sequential comparison between the actual observations and their predictive probability distributions approximated by the filter. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the proposed methodology and, as an example of its practical use, we present simulations of a simple algorithm for the dynamic and online adaption of the number of particles during the operation of a particle filter on a stochastic version of the Lorenz system

Compensation and speed of advancement in executive careers through the internal and external labor markets by gender

Our study aims at exploring whether internal and external moves have a different impact on the speed of advancement in executive careers, identifying gender differences in the influence of both mobility routes and understanding the impact of speed on compensation inequality.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Studi Eksperimental terhadap Unjuk Kerja Kuda-kuda Baja Ringan Profil C dengan Ketebalan 0,60 Mm

Since wood material is very difficult to find nowadays and the quality begin to decrease, then light gauge steel is chosen as an alternative of wood as a construction material roof truss. However, many types of light gauge steel in the market give a great influence to the specification and standardization of light gauge steel frame structure calculations . This testing the strength of the truss 0.6 mm thick C profile with a particular landscape . Loading test were performed on a truss structure using a full -scale model of the test object with incremental load . The structure of the truss that tested an easel structure with spans of 12 m, height 2.51 m , and a 20 tilt angle . Truss collapse when was given a load of 315 kg. With hanger and a heavy loaded bearing was 60 kg plus the weight of the cube as many as 17 pieces of heavy cube which is 15 kg. As for the collapse phenomenon is topchord buckling. From the collapse phenomenon, its been known that the structure of the truss suffered a failure behavior on cold formed steel rod of iron C is not due to shear or tensile strength screws . It can be seen that the screws which were used for 3 pcs of each knot point could not be separated from the strong connection and resist the force that was applied

Studi Eksperimental terhadap Unjuk Kerja Kuda-kuda Baja Ringan Profil C dengan Ketebalan 0,75 Mm

Baja ringan adalah salah satu material konstruksi yang sedang berkembang di pasaran. Material ini digunakan dalam konstruksi rangka atap karena memiliki keunggulan sepertianti rayap, memiliki bobot yang ringan, tahan terhadap karat dan Perubahan cuaca serta efisien dari segi waktu pengerjaannya.Dalamurusanunjukkerja, profilbajaringansendirisecarastrukturalmasihmemerlukankajian yang lebihmendalam. Hal inilah yang menjaditujuandilakukannyapenelitianini.Penelitiandilakukan untuk mengetahui kapasitas beban maksimum yang dapat dipikul oleh struktur rangka kuda-kuda bentang panjang menggunakan baja ringansampai mengalami keruntuhan serta mengamati fenomena keruntuhan yang terjadi. Pengujian pembebanan dilakukan dengan pengaturan laju pembebanan(load control) pada struktur kuda-kuda baja ringan dengan bentang 12 meter dengan posisi kuda-kuda diapit oleh sekur pengapit sebagai pengaku. Pemberian beban dilakukan secara bertahap dari nol hingga profil sampai struktur mengalami runtuh atau terjadi deformasi berlebih. Kecepatan pembebanan diatur agar lendutan terjadi secara perlahan dan tidak terjadi keruntuhan yang mendadak.Dari hasil pengujian pembebanan statik diketahui bahwa struktur rangka kuda-kuda memiliki kapasitas beban sebesar 480 kg dan lendutan ditengah bentang sebesar 24,5 mm untuk profil C tunggal. Bila dibandingkan dengan menggunakan profil C ganda baja ringan didapat hasil yang berbeda. Kapasitas beban maksimum yang diperoleh sebesar 735 kg dengan lendutan ditengah bentang sebesar 24,95 mm.Keruntuhan yang terjadi disebabkan oleh tekuk lokal dan tidak mengindikasi adanya keruntuhan akibat kegagalan pada sambungan. Kata

Environmental tobacco smoke risk perception and smoking behavior in Portugal

This study analyzes public attitudes towards environmental tobacco smoking (ETS) risks. ETS legislation and smoking behaviors using recent data from Special Eurobarometer 272 that is a unique database on public perception of ETS. Some major conclusions are drawn: (1) both smokers and non-smokers are aware of health consequences from ETS, (2) moderate and heavy smokers tend to be less concerned with seriousness of the health consequences, (3) that the belief that ETS increases the risk of a serious disease decreases the probability of being smoker, (4)ETS beliefs do not affect the quitting decision, (5) those who smoke at home appear to be aware of health consequences of ETS, (6) ETS health risk beliefs is negatively associated with the number of cigarette consumed.

A METHOD FOR INCLUDING IN PMP MODELS ACTIVITIES NON-EXISTENT IN THE BASELINE SITUATION

When working with positive mathematical programming (PMP) models it is generally admitted that it is not possible to consider in the modeled unit activities that are not present in the baseline situation of the unit. This constitutes a considerable drawback for traditional PMP techniques which cannot be applied in specific cases, in particular to the study of the impact of new agri-environmental programs that subsidize crops grown with technologies different to those applied in the baseline situation. This paper presents a method for dealing with these cases, which can be easily implemented as an extension of the traditional calibration techniques of PMP. The method is applied to a specific problem, using modified calibration expressions derived from the necessary Khun-Tucker conditions, assuming increasing marginal costs. The analysis of the results and their comparison with those obtained using a linear programming model permits a first evaluation of this methodological proposal.Positive mathematical programming extensions, Agri-environmental measures, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Útero, psiquis y climaterio: un acercamiento desde la endocrinología antropológica

The female gonadal cycle has been ancestrally linked to traits of an emotional and mutable mood, partly attributed to moon phases. This would pave the way along centuries to consider menstruation as something impure and, in the western civilization, even evil (note sexualization of sin in Christian culture). In this context and until the pathophysiology of menopause was approached with a scientific perspective, cessation of fertility and phenotypic changes associated with ovarian quenching have fostered a magical and prejudicial vision as a state related to disequilibrium, lunacy or harm. Historical portraits of women with this psychological profile through time as prophets, mystic, witches have turned in today’s hysterical, depressive or emotionally labile diagnoses. This fact reveals the impact of long standing beliefs based on myths and cosmic phenomena on the contemporary collective subconscious. An impact that, in conjunction with cultural, social and biological issues, even today, modulate the medical nosological categories.Como medida del tiempo, el ciclo gonadal femenino se ha ligado ancestralmente a atributos de inestabilidad y mutabilidad vinculados al ciclo lunar. Sobre esta superstición sedimentará la contemplación de la menstruación como impura y, en Occidente, como maligna, tras la sexualización del pecado en la religión cristiana. En este contexto, y hasta el inicio del conocimiento de la fisiología del climaterio, el cese de la fertilidad y los cambios fenotípicos secundarios al apagamiento ovárico han propiciado un discurso basado en una visión mágica y creencial de la mujer menopaúsica como ser desequilibrado, enajenado y dañino. Las interpretaciones de este perfil psíquico a lo largo de la historia -profetas, místicas, hechicerasse transmutarán en las histéricas, depresivas o lábiles emocionales contemporáneas, evidenciando el peso de ancestrales creencias cósmicas y mitológicas sobre el subconsciente colectivo. Un peso que, junto a los condicionantes culturales, sociológicos y biológicos actuales, aún hoy modula las categorías nosológicas de la medicina