Moderate deviations for random field Curie-Weiss models

The random field Curie-Weiss model is derived from the classical Curie-Weiss model by replacing the deterministic global magnetic field by random local magnetic fields. This opens up a new and interestingly rich phase structure. In this setting, we derive moderate deviations principles for the random total magnetization $S_n$, which is the partial sum of (dependent) spins. A typical result is that under appropriate assumptions on the distribution of the local external fields there exist a real number $m$, a positive real number $\lambda$, and a positive integer $k$ such that $(S_n-nm)/n^{\alpha}$ satisfies a moderate deviations principle with speed $n^{1-2k(1-\alpha)}$ and rate function $\lambda x^{2k}/(2k)!$, where $1-1/(2(2k-1)) < \alpha < 1$.Comment: 21 page

Ensemble decision tree models using RUSBoost for estimating risk of iron failure in drinking water distribution systems

Safe, trusted drinking water is fundamental to society. Discolouration is a key aesthetic indicator visible to customers. Investigations to understand discolouration and iron failures in water supply systems require assessment of large quantities of disparate, inconsistent, multidimensional data from multiple corporate systems. A comprehensive data matrix was assembled for a seven year period across the whole of a UK water company (serving three million people). From this a novel data driven tool for assessment of iron risk was developed based on a yearly update and ranking procedure, for a subset of the best quality data. To avoid a ‘black box’ output, and provide an element of explanatory (human readable) interpretation, classification decision trees were utilised. Due to the very limited number of iron failures, results from many weak learners were melded into one high-quality ensemble predictor using the RUSBoost algorithm which is designed for class imbalance. Results, exploring simplicity vs predictive power, indicate enough discrimination between variable relationships in the matrix to produce ensemble decision tree classification models with good accuracy for iron failure estimation at District Management Area (DMA) scale. Two model variants were explored: ‘Nowcast’ (situation at end of calendar year) and ‘Futurecast’ (predict end of next year situation from this year’s data). The Nowcast 2014 model achieved 100% True Positive Rate (TPR) and 95.3% True Negative Rate (TNR), with 3.3% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The Futurecast 2014 achieved 60.5% TPR and 75.9% TNR, with 25.7% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The output can be used to focus preventive measures to improve iron compliance

Ensemble decision tree models using RUSBoost for estimating risk of iron failure in drinking water distribution systems

Safe, trusted drinking water is fundamental to society. Discolouration is a key aesthetic indicator visible to customers. Investigations to understand discolouration and iron failures in water supply systems require assessment of large quantities of disparate, inconsistent, multidimensional data from multiple corporate systems. A comprehensive data matrix was assembled for a seven year period across the whole of a UK water company (serving three million people). From this a novel data driven tool for assessment of iron risk was developed based on a yearly update and ranking procedure, for a subset of the best quality data. To avoid a ‘black box’ output, and provide an element of explanatory (human readable) interpretation, classification decision trees were utilised. Due to the very limited number of iron failures, results from many weak learners were melded into one high-quality ensemble predictor using the RUSBoost algorithm which is designed for class imbalance. Results, exploring simplicity vs predictive power, indicate enough discrimination between variable relationships in the matrix to produce ensemble decision tree classification models with good accuracy for iron failure estimation at District Management Area (DMA) scale. Two model variants were explored: ‘Nowcast’ (situation at end of calendar year) and ‘Futurecast’ (predict end of next year situation from this year’s data). The Nowcast 2014 model achieved 100% True Positive Rate (TPR) and 95.3% True Negative Rate (TNR), with 3.3% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The Futurecast 2014 achieved 60.5% TPR and 75.9% TNR, with 25.7% of DMAs classified High Risk for un-sampled instances. The output can be used to focus preventive measures to improve iron compliance

Can a pseudo-symmetry solve the cosmological constant problem?

A general no-go theorem dampens hope that the cosmological constant problem can be solved by a local symmetry mechanism. The possibility is considered here that this no-go theorem can be avoided by a pseudo-symmetry. A simple macroscopic effective field theory is constructed which admits an enhanced pseudo-symmetry in the absence of a cosmological term. It is pointed out that this pseudo-symmetry is an exact classical invariance of superstrings. The conjecture that this pseudo-symmetry survives in the quantum theory has several interesting consequences.Comment: Changes in language (including new title), and assorted perestroika. One new consequence of conjecture. 10 pages, uuencoded Postscript file. To appear in Phys.Lett.

Strange quarks and lattice QCD

The last few years have seen a dramatic improvement in our knowledge of the strange form factors of the nucleon. With regard to the vector from factors the level of agreement between theory and experiment gives us considerable confidence in our ability to calculate with non-perturbative QCD. The calculation of the strange scalar form factor has moved significantly in the last two years, with the application of new techniques which yield values considerably smaller than believed for the past 20 years. These new values turn out to have important consequences for the detection of neutralinos, a favourite dark matter candidate. Finally, very recent lattice studies have resurrected interest in the famed H-dibaryon, with modern chiral extrapolation of lattice data suggesting that it may be only slightly unbound. We review some of the major sources of uncertainty in that chiral extrapolation.Comment: Invited talk at the Asia-Pacific few Body Conference, Seoul Kore

Baryogenesis and Gravitino Dark Matter in Gauge-Mediated Supersymmetry-Breaking Models

We discuss two cosmological issues in a generic gauge-mediated supersymmetry (SUSY)-breaking model, namely the Universe's baryon asymmetry and the gravitino dark-matter density. We show that both problems can be simultaneously solved if there exist extra matter multiplets of a SUSY-invariant mass of the order of the ``$\mu$-term'', as suggested in several realistic SUSY grand-unified theories. We propose an attractive scenario in which the observed baryon asymmetry is produced in a way totally independent of the reheating temperature of inflation without causing any cosmological gravitino problem. Furthermore, in a relatively wide parameter space, we can also explain the present mass density of cold dark matter by the thermal relics of the gravitinos without an adjustment of the reheating temperature of inflation. We point out that there is an interesting relation between the baryon asymmetry and the dark-matter density.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figure

Lorentz breaking Effective Field Theory and observational tests

Analogue models of gravity have provided an experimentally realizable test field for our ideas on quantum field theory in curved spacetimes but they have also inspired the investigation of possible departures from exact Lorentz invariance at microscopic scales. In this role they have joined, and sometime anticipated, several quantum gravity models characterized by Lorentz breaking phenomenology. A crucial difference between these speculations and other ones associated to quantum gravity scenarios, is the possibility to carry out observational and experimental tests which have nowadays led to a broad range of constraints on departures from Lorentz invariance. We shall review here the effective field theory approach to Lorentz breaking in the matter sector, present the constraints provided by the available observations and finally discuss the implications of the persisting uncertainty on the composition of the ultra high energy cosmic rays for the constraints on the higher order, analogue gravity inspired, Lorentz violations.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures. Lecture Notes for the IX SIGRAV School on "Analogue Gravity", Como (Italy), May 2011. V.3. Typo corrected, references adde

Conditions for spontaneous homogenization of the Universe

The present-day Universe appears to be homogeneous on very large scales. Yet when the casual structure of the early Universe is considered, it becomes apparent that the early Universe must have been highly inhomogeneous. The current paradigm attempts to answer this problem by postulating the inflation mechanism However, inflation in order to start requires a homogeneous patch of at least the horizon size. This paper examines if dynamical processes of the early Universe could lead to homogenization. In the past similar studies seem to imply that the set of initial conditions that leads to homogenization is of measure zero. This essay proves contrary: a set of initial conditions for spontaneous homogenization of cosmological models can form a set of non-zero measure.Comment: 7 pages. Fifth Award in the 2010 Gravity Research Foundation essay competitio

Pion Content of the Nucleon as seen in the NA51 Drell-Yan experiment

In a recent CERN Drell-Yan experiment the NA51 group found a strong asymmetry of $\bar u$ and $\bar d$ densities in the proton at $x\simeq0.18$. We interpret this result as a decisive confirmation of the pion-induced sea in the nucleon.Comment: 10 pages + 3 figures, Preprint KFA-IKP(TH)-1994-14 .tex file. After \enddocument a uu-encodeded Postscript file comprising the figures is appende

Non-thermal dark matter via Affleck-Dine baryogenesis and its detection possibility

The formation and late time decays of Q-balls are generic consequences of the Affleck-Dine (AD) baryogenesis. A substantial amount of the lightest supersymmetry (SUSY) particles (LSPs) are produced non-thermally as the decay products of these Q-balls. This requires a significantly large annihilation cross section of the LSP so as not to overclose the universe, which predicts a higgsino- or wino-like LSP instead of the standard bino LSP. We have reexamined the AD baryogenesis with special attention to the late-time decays of the Q-balls, and then specified the parameter regions where the LSPs produced by the Q-ball decays result in a cosmologically interesting mass density of dark matter by adopting several SUSY breaking models. This reveals new cosmologically interesting parameter regions, which have not attracted much attention so far. We have also investigated the prospects of direct and indirect detection of these dark matter candidates, and found that there is an intriguing possibility to detect them in various next generation dark matter searches.Comment: 51 pages, 18 figures, version accepted for publication in Physical Review