Bayesian approach and Naturalness in MSSM analyses for the LHC

The start of LHC has motivated an effort to determine the relative probability of the different regions of the MSSM parameter space, taking into account the present, theoretical and experimental, wisdom about the model. Since the present experimental data are not powerful enough to select a small region of the MSSM parameter space, the choice of a judicious prior probability for the parameters becomes most relevant. Previous studies have proposed theoretical priors that incorporate some (conventional) measure of the fine-tuning, to penalize unnatural possibilities. However, we show that such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself (with no ad hoc assumptions), upon the marginalization of the mu-parameter. Furthermore the resulting effective prior contains precisely the Barbieri-Giudice measure, which is very satisfactory. On the other hand we carry on a rigorous treatment of the Yukawa couplings, showing in particular that the usual practice of taking the Yukawas "as required", approximately corresponds to taking logarithmically flat priors in the Yukawa couplings. Finally, we use an efficient set of variables to scan the MSSM parameter space, trading in particular B by tan beta, giving the effective prior in the new parameters. Beside the numerical results, we give accurate analytic expressions for the effective priors in all cases. Whatever experimental information one may use in the future, it is to be weighted by the Bayesian factors worked out here.Comment: LaTeX, 19 pages, 3 figure

Likelihood Functions for Supersymmetric Observables in Frequentist Analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1

On the basis of frequentist analyses of experimental constraints from electroweak precision data, g-2, B physics and cosmological data, we investigate the parameters of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) with universal soft supersymmetry-breaking mass parameters, and a model with common non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). We present chi^2 likelihood functions for the masses of supersymmetric particles and Higgs bosons, as well as b to s gamma, b to mu mu and the spin-independent dark matter scattering cross section. In the CMSSM we find preferences for sparticle masses that are relatively light. In the NUHM1 the best-fit values for many sparticle masses are even slightly smaller, but with greater uncertainties. The likelihood functions for most sparticle masses are cut off sharply at small masses, in particular by the LEP Higgs mass constraint. Both in the CMSSM and the NUHM1, the coannihilation region is favoured over the focus-point region at about the 3-sigma level, largely but not exclusively because of g-2. Many sparticle masses are highly correlated in both the CMSSM and NUHM1, and most of the regions preferred at the 95% C.L. are accessible to early LHC running. Some slepton and chargino/neutralino masses should be in reach at the ILC. The masses of the heavier Higgs bosons should be accessible at the LHC and the ILC in portions of the preferred regions in the (M_A, tan beta) plane. In the CMSSM, the likelihood function for b to mu mu is peaked close to the Standard Model value, but much larger values are possible in the NUHM1. We find that values of the DM cross section > 10^{-10} pb are preferred in both the CMSSM and the NUHM1. We study the effects of dropping the g-2, b to s gamma, relic density and M_h constraints.Comment: 34 pages, 24 figure

Acceleration of the universe with a simple trigonometric potential

In this paper we investigate the quintessence model with a minimally coupled scalar field in the context of recent supernovae observations. By choosing a particular form of the deceleration parameter q, which gives an early deceleration and late time acceleration for dust dominated model, we show that this sign flip in q can be obtained by a simple trigonometric patential. The early matter dominated model expands with q=1/2 as desired and enters a negative q phase quite late during the evolution.Comment: 9 pages; 5 figures; to be published in GRG Journa

The Long-Term Future of Extragalactic Astronomy

If the current energy density of the universe is indeed dominated by a cosmological constant, then high-redshift sources will remain visible to us only until they reach some finite age in their rest-frame. The radiation emitted beyond that age will never reach us due to the acceleration of the cosmic expansion rate, and so we will never know what these sources look like as they become older. As a source image freezes on a particular time frame along its evolution, its luminosity distance and redshift continue to increase exponentially with observation time. The higher the current redshift of a source is, the younger it will appear as it fades out of sight. For the popular set of cosmological parameters, I show that a source at a redshift z=5-10 will only be visible up to an age of 4-6 billion years. Arguments relating the properties of high-redshift sources to present-day counterparts will remain indirect even if we continue to monitor these sources for an infinite amount of time. These sources will not be visible to us when they reach the current age of the universe.Comment: Phys. Rev. D, in press (2001

On the detectability of the CMSSM light Higgs boson at the Tevatron

We examine the prospects of detecting the light Higgs h^0 of the Constrained MSSM at the Tevatron. To this end we explore the CMSSM parameter space with \mu>0, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, and apply all relevant collider and cosmological constraints including their uncertainties, as well as those of the Standard Model parameters. Taking 50 GeV < m_{1/2}, m_0 < 4 TeV, |A_0| < 7 TeV and 2 < tan(beta) < 62 as flat priors and using the formalism of Bayesian statistics we find that the 68% posterior probability region for the h^0 mass lies between 115.4 GeV and 120.4 GeV. Otherwise, h^0 is very similar to the Standard Model Higgs boson. Nevertheless, we point out some enhancements in its couplings to bottom and tau pairs, ranging from a few per cent in most of the CMSSM parameter space, up to several per cent in the favored region of tan(beta)\sim 50 and the pseudoscalar Higgs mass of m_A\lsim 1 TeV. We also find that the other Higgs bosons are typically heavier, although not necessarily much heavier. For values of the h^0 mass within the 95% probability range as determined by our analysis, a 95% CL exclusion limit can be set with about 2/fb of integrated luminosity per experiment, or else with 4/fb (12/fb) a 3 sigma evidence (5 sigma discovery) will be guaranteed. We also emphasize that the alternative statistical measure of the mean quality-of-fit favors a somewhat lower Higgs mass range; this implies even more optimistic prospects for the CMSSM light Higgs search than the more conservative Bayesian approach. In conclusion, for the above CMSSM parameter ranges, especially m_0, either some evidence will be found at the Tevatron for the light Higgs boson or, at a high confidence level, the CMSSM will be ruled out.Comment: JHEP versio

Scaling Solutions and reconstruction of Scalar Field Potentials

Starting from the hypothesis of scaling solutions, the general exact form of the scalar field potential is found. In the case of two fluids, it turns out to be a negative power of hyperbolic sine. In the case of three fluids the analytic form is not found, but is obtained by quadratures.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, some changes in references and figures caption

WMAP-Compliant Benchmark Surfaces for MSSM Higgs Bosons

We explore `benchmark surfaces' suitable for studying the phenomenology of Higgs bosons in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM), which are chosen so that the supersymmetric relic density is generally compatible with the range of cold dark matter density preferred by WMAP and other observations. These benchmark surfaces are specified assuming that gaugino masses m_{1/2}, soft trilinear supersymmetry-breaking parameters A_0 and the soft supersymmetry-breaking contributions m_0 to the squark and slepton masses are universal, but not those associated with the Higgs multiplets (the NUHM framework). The benchmark surfaces may be presented as M_A-tan_beta planes with fixed or systematically varying values of the other NUHM parameters, such as m_0, m_{1/2}, A_0 and the Higgs mixing parameter mu. We discuss the prospects for probing experimentally these benchmark surfaces at the Tevatron collider, the LHC, the ILC, in B physics and in direct dark-matter detection experiments. An Appendix documents developments in the FeynHiggs code that enable the user to explore for her/himself the WMAP-compliant benchmark surfaces.Comment: Minor corrections, references added. 43 pages, 10 figures. Version to appear in JHE

Late-time cosmology in (phantom) scalar-tensor theory: dark energy and the cosmic speed-up

We consider late-time cosmology in a (phantom) scalar-tensor theory with an exponential potential, as a dark energy model with equation of state parameter close to -1 (a bit above or below this value). Scalar (and also other kinds of) matter can be easily taken into account. An exact spatially-flat FRW cosmology is constructed for such theory, which admits (eternal or transient) acceleration phases for the current universe, in correspondence with observational results. Some remarks on the possible origin of the phantom, starting from a more fundamental theory, are also made. It is shown that quantum gravity effects may prevent (or, at least, delay or soften) the cosmic doomsday catastrophe associated with the phantom, i.e. the otherwise unavoidable finite-time future singularity (Big Rip). A novel dark energy model (higher-derivative scalar-tensor theory) is introduced and it is shown to admit an effective phantom/quintessence description with a transient acceleration phase. In this case, gravity favors that an initially insignificant portion of dark energy becomes dominant over the standard matter/radiation components in the evolution process.Comment: LaTeX file, 48 pages, discussion of Big Rip is enlarged, a reference is adde

Phenomenology of GUT-less Supersymmetry Breaking

We study models in which supersymmetry breaking appears at an intermediate scale, M_{in}, below the GUT scale. We assume that the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters of the MSSM are universal at M_{in}, and analyze the morphology of the constraints from cosmology and collider experiments on the allowed regions of parameter space as M_{in} is reduced from the GUT scale. We present separate analyses of the (m_{1/2},m_0) planes for tan(beta)=10 and tan(beta)=50, as well as a discussion of non-zero trilinear couplings, A_0. Specific scenarios where the gaugino and scalar masses appear to be universal below the GUT scale have been found in mirage-mediation models, which we also address here. We demand that the lightest neutralino be the LSP, and that the relic neutralino density not conflict with measurements by WMAP and other observations. At moderate values of M_{in}, we find that the allowed regions of the (m_{1/2},m_0) plane are squeezed by the requirements of electroweak symmetry breaking and that the lightest neutralino be the LSP, whereas the constraint on the relic density is less severe. At very low M_{in}, the electroweak vacuum conditions become the dominant constraint, and a secondary source of astrophysical cold dark matter would be necessary to explain the measured relic density for nearly all values of the soft SUSY-breaking parameters and tan(beta). We calculate the neutralino-nucleon cross sections for viable scenarios and compare them with the present and projected limits from direct dark matter searches.Comment: 35 pages, 9 figures; typos corrected, references adde