The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting K dwarf TOI-1246

Multi-planet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V=11.6, K=9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31 d, 5.90 d, 18.66 d, and 37.92 d. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97±0.06 R⊕,2.47±0.08 R⊕,3.46±0.09 R⊕, 3.72±0.16 R⊕), and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1±1.1M⊕, 8.8±1.2M⊕, 5.3±1.7M⊕, 14.8±2.3M⊕). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (Pe/Pd=2.03) and exhibit transit timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only six systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70±0.24 to 3.21±0.44g/cm3, implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 ± 3.6 M⊕. This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e with a candidate period of 93.8 d, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature

The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting Sub-Neptunes Orbiting K Dwarf TOI-1246

Multiplanet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V = 11.6, K = 9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31, 5.90, 18.66, and 37.92 days. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97 +/- 0.06 R (circle plus), 2.47 +/- 0.08 R (circle plus), 3.46 +/- 0.09 R (circle plus), and 3.72 +/- 0.16 R (circle plus)) and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1 +/- 1.1 M (circle plus), 8.8 +/- 1.2 M (circle plus), 5.3 +/- 1.7 M (circle plus), and 14.8 +/- 2.3 M (circle plus)). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (P (e)/P ( d ) = 2.03) and exhibit transit-timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only five systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70 +/- 0.24 to 3.21 +/- 0.44 g cm(-3), implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 +/- 3.6 M (circle plus). This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e, with a candidate period of 93.8 days, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature

Estimates of the Neutral Rate of Interest in Norway

In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to the Laubach-Williams model, respectively. In line with international evidence, all estimates indicate a falling trend. Furthermore, the estimates for Norway suggest that the Norwegian neutral short-term money market rate is now close to 0 percent in real terms.publishedVersio

Relationships Between Nominal GDP and Financial Variables in OECD Countries

I look at the short-term relationship between nominal GDP and credit and nominal GDP and house prices in 20 OECD countries. In the recent years central banks have become increasingly concerned with financial stability. These concerns sometimes lead to trade-offs for monetary policy. One important policy question is how the variables related to financial stability is related to different macroeconomic aggregates followed by the central bank. I find considerable similarities in the short-term relationship between the variables across the countries in the data set. The cross correlations are notably large, and there are relatively stable lead/lag structures across most countries. I also develop a synchronization indicator which shows that the variables tend to follow the same growth cycles

Let's Google it. Can Google search indices nowcast Norwegian retail sales and unemployment rate?

Nowcasting economic aggregates with the use of timely data is an important challenge faced by central banks, and forecasting in general. I address this challenge by using timely search value indices (SVIs) from Google Trends to nowcast retail sales and the unemployment rate in Norway. By using least angle regression techniques to dynamically rank the top predictors from a large set of SVIs, I perform out-of-sample nowcasts where the nowcasting models include the top ranked SVIs. My ndings show that all the nowcasting models perform far better than a random walk, and some of the models that only include SVIs as predictors perform equally good as an AR(1) in nowcasting the unemployment rate. However, my ndings suggest that, on average, none of the SVIs provide any valuable information complementary to simple autoregressive models, like an AR(1). Nevertheless, due to their timeliness, the results indicate that SVIs may be valuable for nowcasting. Interestingly, when I only focus on the nancial crisis period, where the Norwegian economy was hit by an unexpected large shock, some of the SVI models outperform an AR(1) by a substantial amount in nowcasting the unemployment rate. This nding suggest that the SVIs property as an early indicator detecting turning points, should be investigated further

News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting

Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.publishedVersio

Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers

We estimate the earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set from Norway, coupled with an event-study framework of the oil price drop in 2014. Displacement leads to sizable and persistent earnings losses, and the magnitudes are particularly large for petroleum workers moving to other industries. More importantly, we document that almost 70 percent of the earnings losses can be attributed to lost industry-specific earnings premiums caused by workers moving from an industry characterized by large resource rents. In contrast, worker-industry match effects are negligible

Estimates of the Neutral Rate of Interest in Norway

In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to the Laubach-Williams model, respectively. In line with international evidence, all estimates indicate a falling trend. Furthermore, the estimates for Norway suggest that the Norwegian neutral short-term money market rate is now close to 0 percent in real terms

Sleep hypoventilation and daytime hypercapnia in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Purpose: To explore the associations between sleep hypoventilation (SH) and daytime arterial pressures of carbon dioxide (PaCO2), sleep stages, and sleep apneas/hypopneas (AHI) in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). SH has previously been found in COPD-subjects with chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure (CHRF) using supplementary oxygen (LTOT), and has been proposed as a possible predictor for CHRF. Patients and methods: A prospectively designed observational study in a pulmonary rehabilitation hospital of 100 (39 male) stable COPD inpatients with a mean forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) of 1.1 L (42% of predicted) and a mean age of 64 years, using polysomnography with transcutaneous measurement of carbon dioxide pressure increase (ΔPtcCO2). Results: SH as defined by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) was found in 15 of the subjects, seven of whom used LTOT. However, six had SH despite being normocapnic during the daytime (only one on LTOT). Subjects with SH had a greater ΔPtcCO2 increase from nonrapid eye movement (NREM) to rapid eye movement (REM) sleep stages compared to non-SH subjects (mean [standard deviation] between-groups difference =0.23(0.20) kPa, P<0.0005). Subjects with apnea/hypopnea index ≥ 15 (overlap, N=27) did not differ from those with COPD alone (AHI <5, N=25) in sleep ΔPtcCO2 or daytime PaCO2. A regression model with the variables FEV1, LTOT, and sleep maximum ΔPtcCO2 explained 56% of the variance in daytime PaCO2 (F(3, 94) =40.37, P<0.001). Conclusion: In stable COPD, SH as defined by the AASM was found both in normocapnic, non-LTOT subjects and in hypercapnic, LTOT-using subjects. Between-sleep-stage increase in ΔPtcCO2 was higher in subjects with SH. Overlap subjects did not differ from simple COPD subjects in sleep ΔPtcCO2 or daytime PaCO2