Wittgenstein's Thought Experiments and Relativity Theory

In this paper, I discuss the similarity between Wittgenstein’s use of thought experiments and Relativity Theory. I begin with introducing Wittgenstein’s idea of “thought experiments” and a tentative classification of different kinds of thought experiments in Wittgenstein’s work. Then, after presenting a short recap of some remarks on the analogy between Wittgenstein’s point of view and Einstein’s, I suggest three analogies between the status of Wittgenstein’s mental experiments and Relativity theory: the topics of time dilation, the search for invariants, and the role of measuring tools in Special Relativity. This last point will help to better define Wittgenstein’s idea of description as the core of his philosophical enterprise

Systematic Evaluation of the Descriptive and Predictive Performance of Paediatric Morphine Population Models

Purpose: A framework for the evaluation of paediatric population models is proposed and applied to two different paediatric population pharmacokinetic models for morphine. One covariate model was based on a systematic covariate analysis, the other on fixed allometric scaling principles. Methods: The six evaluation criteria in the framework were 1) number of parameters and condition number, 2) numerical diagnostics, 3) prediction-based diagnostics, 4) η-shrinkage, 5) simulation-based diagnostics, 6) diagnostics of individual and population parameter estimates versus covariates, including measurements of bias and precision of the population values compared to the observed individual values. The framework entails both an internal and external model evaluation procedure. Results: The application of the framework to the two models resulted in the detection of overparameterization and misleading diagnostics based on individual predictions caused by high shrinkage. The diagnostic of individual and population parameter estimates versus covariates proved to be highly informative in assessing obtained covariate relationships. Based on the framework, the systematic covariate model proved to be superior over the fixed allometric model in terms of predictive performance. Conclusions: The proposed framework is suitable for the evaluation of paediatric (covariate) models and should be applied to corroborate the descriptive and predictive properties of these models

The role of population PK-PD modelling in paediatric clinical research

Children differ from adults in their response to drugs. While this may be the result of changes in dose exposure (pharmacokinetics [PK]) and/or exposure response (pharmacodynamics [PD]) relationships, the magnitude of these changes may not be solely reflected by differences in body weight. As a consequence, dosing recommendations empirically derived from adults dosing regimens using linear extrapolations based on body weight, can result in therapeutic failure, occurrence of adverse effect or even fatalities. In order to define rational, patient-tailored dosing schemes, population PK-PD studies in children are needed. For the analysis of the data, population modelling using non-linear mixed effect modelling is the preferred tool since this approach allows for the analysis of sparse and unbalanced datasets. Additionally, it permits the exploration of the influence of different covariates such as body weight and age to explain the variability in drug response. Finally, using this approach, these PK-PD studies can be designed in the most efficient manner in order to obtain the maximum information on the PK-PD parameters with the highest precision. Once a population PK-PD model is developed, internal and external validations should be performed. If the model performs well in these validation procedures, model simulations can be used to define a dosing regimen, which in turn needs to be tested and challenged in a prospective clinical trial. This methodology will improve the efficacy/safety balance of dosing guidelines, which will be of benefit to the individual child

Pompas de intuición y el uso adecuado de los experimentos mentales

Empiezo con una explicación de lo que es un "experimento mental". Posteriormente, clarifico el papel que juegan las intuiciones en los experimentos mentales, teniendo en cuenta dos puntos importanes: (1) el carácter informativo de los experimentos mentales y (2) la legitimidad del método de losexperimentos mentales en la filosofía y en las ciencias naturales. Defiendo una explicación naturalista de las intuiciones que provee una explicación plausible del carácter informativo de los experimentos mentales y que, a su vez, permite reconstruirlos como argumentos. También especifico criterios para la distinción de malas "pompas intuitivas" respecto de experimentos mentales legítimos. Esos criterios nos ayudan a evitar ser seducidos por el peligroso poder sugestivo de intuiciones engañosas