A Water Futures approach on water demand forecasting with online ensemble learning

This study presents a collaborative framework developed by the Water Futures team of researchers for the “Battle of the Water Demand Forecasting” challenge at the 3rd International WDSA-CCWI Joint Conference. The framework integrates an ensemble of machine learning forecasting models into a deterministic outcome consistent with the competition formulation. The water demand trajectory over a week exhibits complex overlapping patterns and non-linear dependencies to multiple features and time-dependent events that a single model cannot accurately predict. As such, the reconciled forecast from an ensemble of models exceeds the performance of the individual ones and exhibits higher stability across the weeks of the year and district metered areas considered

Impact of Plasmodium falciparum infection on the frequency of moderate to severe anaemia in children below 10 years of age in Gabon

BACKGROUND: Improving the understanding of childhood malarial anaemia may help in the design of appropriate management strategies. METHODS: A prospective observational study over a two-year period to assess the burden of anaemia and its relationship to Plasmodium falciparum infection and age was conducted in 8,195 febrile Gabonese children. RESULTS: The proportion of children with anaemia was 83.6% (n = 6830), higher in children between the ages of six and 23 months. Those under three years old were more likely to develop moderate to severe anaemia (68%). The prevalence of malaria was 42.7% and P. falciparum infection was more frequent in children aged 36-47 months (54.5%). The proportion of anaemic children increased with parasite density (p 60%), but was unrelated to P. falciparum parasitaemia. CONCLUSION: Malaria is one of the main risk factors for childhood anaemia which represents a public health problem in Gabon. The risk of severe malarial anaemia increases up the age of three years. Efforts to improve strategies for controlling anaemia and malaria are needed

Human Auditory Cortical Activation during Self-Vocalization

During speaking, auditory feedback is used to adjust vocalizations. The brain systems mediating this integrative ability have been investigated using a wide range of experimental strategies. In this report we examined how vocalization alters speech-sound processing within auditory cortex by directly recording evoked responses to vocalizations and playback stimuli using intracranial electrodes implanted in neurosurgery patients. Several new findings resulted from these high-resolution invasive recordings in human subjects. Suppressive effects of vocalization were found to occur only within circumscribed areas of auditory cortex. In addition, at a smaller number of sites, the opposite pattern was seen; cortical responses were enhanced during vocalization. This increase in activity was reflected in high gamma power changes, but was not evident in the averaged evoked potential waveforms. These new findings support forward models for vocal control in which efference copies of premotor cortex activity modulate sub-regions of auditory cortex

Can an Integrated Approach Reduce Child Vulnerability to Anaemia? Evidence from Three African Countries.

Addressing the complex, multi-factorial causes of childhood anaemia is best done through integrated packages of interventions. We hypothesized that due to reduced child vulnerability, a "buffering" of risk associated with known causes of anaemia would be observed among children living in areas benefiting from a community-based health and nutrition program intervention. Cross-sectional data on the nutrition and health status of children 24-59 mo (N = 2405) were obtained in 2000 and 2004 from program evaluation surveys in Ghana, Malawi and Tanzania. Linear regression models estimated the association between haemoglobin and immediate, underlying and basic causes of child anaemia and variation in this association between years. Lower haemoglobin levels were observed in children assessed in 2000 compared to 2004 (difference -3.30 g/L), children from Tanzania (-9.15 g/L) and Malawi (-2.96 g/L) compared to Ghana, and the youngest (24-35 mo) compared to oldest age group (48-59 mo; -5.43 g/L). Children who were stunted, malaria positive and recently ill also had lower haemoglobin, independent of age, sex and other underlying and basic causes of anaemia. Despite ongoing morbidity, risk of lower haemoglobin decreased for children with malaria and recent illness, suggesting decreased vulnerability to their anaemia-producing effects. Stunting remained an independent and unbuffered risk factor. Reducing chronic undernutrition is required in order to further reduce child vulnerability and ensure maximum impact of anaemia control programs. Buffering the impact of child morbidity on haemoglobin levels, including malaria, may be achieved in certain settings

Vocal Learning and Auditory-Vocal Feedback

Vocal learning is usually studied in songbirds and humans, species that can form auditory templates by listening to acoustic models and then learn to vocalize to match the template. Most other species are thought to develop vocalizations without auditory feedback. However, auditory input influences the acoustic structure of vocalizations in a broad distribution of birds and mammals. Vocalizations are dened here as sounds generated by forcing air past vibrating membranes. A vocal motor program may generate vocalizations such as crying or laughter, but auditory feedback may be required for matching precise acoustic features of vocalizations. This chapter discriminates limited vocal learning, which uses auditory input to fine-tune acoustic features of an inherited auditory template, from complex vocal learning, in which novel sounds are learned by matching a learned auditory template. Two or three songbird taxa and four or ve mammalian taxa are known for complex vocal learning. A broader range of mammals converge in the acoustic structure of vocalizations when in socially interacting groups, which qualifies as limited vocal learning. All birds and mammals tested use auditory-vocal feedback to adjust their vocalizations to compensate for the effects of noise, and many species modulate their signals as the costs and benefits of communicating vary. This chapter asks whether some auditory-vocal feedback may have provided neural substrates for the evolution of vocal learning. Progress will require more precise definitions of different forms of vocal learning, broad comparative review of their presence and absence, and behavioral and neurobiological investigations into the mechanisms underlying the skills.PostprintPeer reviewe

Communication calls produced by electrical stimulation of four structures in the guinea pig brain

One of the main central processes affecting the cortical representation of conspecific vocalizations is the collateral output from the extended motor system for call generation. Before starting to study this interaction we sought to compare the characteristics of calls produced by stimulating four different parts of the brain in guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus). By using anaesthetised animals we were able to reposition electrodes without distressing the animals. Trains of 100 electrical pulses were used to stimulate the midbrain periaqueductal grey (PAG), hypothalamus, amygdala, and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Each structure produced a similar range of calls, but in significantly different proportions. Two of the spontaneous calls (chirrup and purr) were never produced by electrical stimulation and although we identified versions of chutter, durr and tooth chatter, they differed significantly from our natural call templates. However, we were routinely able to elicit seven other identifiable calls. All seven calls were produced both during the 1.6 s period of stimulation and subsequently in a period which could last for more than a minute. A single stimulation site could produce four or five different calls, but the amygdala was much less likely to produce a scream, whistle or rising whistle than any of the other structures. These three high-frequency calls were more likely to be produced by females than males. There were also differences in the timing of the call production with the amygdala primarily producing calls during the electrical stimulation and the hypothalamus mainly producing calls after the electrical stimulation. For all four structures a significantly higher stimulation current was required in males than females. We conclude that all four structures can be stimulated to produce fictive vocalizations that should be useful in studying the relationship between the vocal motor system and cortical sensory representation

The International Limits and Population at Risk of Plasmodium vivax Transmission in 2009

Growing evidence shows that Plasmodium vivax malaria is clinically less benign than has been commonly believed. In addition, it is the most widely distributed species of human malaria and is likely to cause more illness in certain regions than the more extensively studied P. falciparum malaria. Understanding where P. vivax transmission exists and measuring the number of people who live at risk of infection is a fundamental first step to estimating the global disease toll. The aim of this paper is to generate a reliable map of the worldwide distribution of this parasite and to provide an estimate of how many people are exposed to probable infection. A geographical information system was used to map data on the presence of P. vivax infection and spatial information on climatic conditions that impede transmission (low ambient temperature and extremely arid environments) in order to delineate areas where transmission was unlikely to take place. This map was combined with population distribution data to estimate how many people live in these areas and are, therefore, exposed to risk of infection by P. vivax malaria. The results show that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some level of risk of transmission in 2009