Costruzione di modelli di scelta discreta ibridi per misurare gli effetti delle strategie informative sulla scelta del modo di viaggio contestualmente agli aspetti latenti

Road traffic is now the main culprit of air pollution in urban areas, due to the emissions of the combustion products of fuels and their subsequent chemical transformation, as well as to the evaporation of unburned hydrocarbons. Transport accounts for 25% of CO2 emitted globally, and is also one of the few sectors where emissions have continued to grow, oil consumption between 1973 and 2010 increasing by 110% (IEA, 2011) and CO2 by 44 %. (IEA, 2009; Banister et al., 2012). Several actions and measures have been developed to try to mitigate the harmful emissions produced by the transport sector and in particular by road traffic. These largely concern vehicle technology, type of fuel, economic tools and institutional controls. Although powerful, these measures have not been proved to be sufficient to solve the problem (Schwanen et al., 2011). In recent years, research has consequently increasingly focused the attention on measures and policies that affect individuals’ behaviour and in particular what motivates their decisions. Providing information is the measure most used to promote behaviour change (Abrahamse and Matthies, 2012): "A person who has an attitude that suggests that it would be consistent for him or her to use the car less cannot bring about behaviour change if that person does not know how to change" (Ampt, 2003). It has been observed that measures that increase individual’s awareness can produce enduring changes, being the result of mindful decisions. This is at the basis of the concept of "Soft Measures", also referred to as "Voluntary Travel Behaviour Change" (VTBC) programmes (Ampt, 2003) or "Smarter Choices" (Cairns et al., 2004), i.e. programmes aimed at motivating the voluntary reduction of car use. VTBC programmes provide information typically on: a) the negative (mainly environmental) effects of current behaviour and b) how individuals can change their current behaviour to mitigate the negative effects. The types of information provided in these studies are mostly: travel time, mileage travelled, travel cost, time spent in non-working activities, CO2 emitted, calories burned. These studies assess the overall effectiveness of the programme, comparing the number of trips by car before and after the implementation of a soft measure. None of them have however examined which of the information provided actually leverages behaviour change. Understanding to what extent specific soft measures contribute to shape individuals’ preferences, is crucial for defining the best policy for fostering changes toward sustainable modes. Of the environmental effects, the information about the impact on the CO2 emitted is probably the most effective measure (and more understandable than other measures like for example PM10). The information on CO2 has often been used in VTBC programmes, and it is widely recognised that individuals are less likely to adopt environmentally friendly behaviour if this information is not provided. However research to date has not yet made it possible to disentangle its efficacy as a soft measure. As far as the information on health effects is concerned, the typical measure tested is the number of calories burned. This is a relatively easy measure to test, because it is easy to quantify and for the individuals easy to associate with the effects on their health. However, from the health literature it seems that rather than the calories burned, stress represents the real plague of modern society. Wener et al. (2010) found also that car commuters showed significantly higher levels of reported stress and more negative moods compared to train commuters. None of the studies however assess the effect of the information, i.e. to what extent being aware of the stress caused by driving has an impact on individuals’ decision to change transport mode. Therefore the objective of this thesis work is to contribute to the development of a programme for voluntary travel behaviour change, and to study the extent to which each single element of the soft measure contributes to the overall awareness. The study focuses in particular on the effect that information on pollution and individual stress has on the choice to shift from private car to Park and Ride (P&R). To try and disentangle the effect of these two components a Stated Preference (SP) experiment was built where the reduction of CO2 and the reduction of stress are attributes included in the experimental design. The ability to perceive, or to be conscious of something and to react to it (i.e. awareness) can differ from one person to another depending on their psychological stance toward environment and stress. Many studies have accounted for the effect of environmental attitude mainly in mode choice or type of fuel-vehicle choice. However, other latent effects other than attitude are relevant. In particular, in terms of environmental awareness and the information provided, personal norm measures a very interesting aspect as they evaluate the moral rule (and obligation) that lead individuals to act rightly or wrongly towards the environment. As for stress, the way individuals perceive stress caused by traffic and the way they perceive the information about stress are particularly relevant for the study. In particular the contribution of this thesis work is to define the methodology to use within a VTBC programme to account for all the above-mentioned aspects. The methodology used thus comprises a SP survey where soft measures information is directly included as attributes in the SP tasks presented to the individuals, a survey that follows the theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991) to specifically measure psychological aspects that could influence the impact of the information provided and/or mode choice. The use of information attributes in the SP is not common and deserves further consideration. The major challenges in including the information about CO2 and stress as attributes concern how they should be presented to respondents in order to be clearly understood. We devoted special attention to studying the best way to present the soft measures in the SP survey. In particular we tested the following aspects: 1) whether to use images alone, only text or both; 2) the type of information that should be included in the text. The major difficulty lies in explaining to people what the information provided means; 3) the type of context to be included in the images; 4) whether to use abstract or real images i.e. cartoons or real people. Lastly, to analyse the data collected, several hybrid choice models (HCM) have been estimated so as to assess the effect of awareness and psychological aspects in the discrete choice between car and P&R. The results show that 1) the utility to P&R increases with the level of awareness attained thanks to the information about the light rail alternative, 2) the more individuals consider receiving information about stress useful, the more they tend to behave sustainably, choosing P&R, 3) those aspects associated with stress would appear to have a greater influence on travel choice than environmental aspects.The thesis work highlighted the importance of being able to completely evaluate the behavioural process so as to enhance the effectiveness of VTBC programme implementation. An incorrect evaluation of the definition and implementation of measures, as well as of all those attributes influencing travel behaviour, could impair the effectiveness of those measures, and in terms of modelling, result in inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

Measuring soft measures within a stated preference survey: The effect of pollution and traffic stress on mode choice

The objective of this research is to study the extent to which information on pollution and individual stress has on the choice to shift from private car to Park and Ride. A Stated Preference experiment was built where the reduction of CO2 and stress are attributes of the experimental design. Results showed that the utility to Park and Ride increases with the level of awareness, 2) the more individuals consider receiving information about stress useful, the more they tend to behave sustainably, 3) aspects associated with stress appear to have a greater influence on travel choice than environmental aspects

A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness regarding the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their mode choice behaviour (level-of-service characteristics being equal). It has been observed, though not scientifically demonstrated, that these measures can produce changes, being the result of mindful decisions. However, in some cases, as demonstrated by numerous environmental psychology studies such measures are not sufficient to overcome the effect of cognitive dissonance, one of the main factors hindering change. In fact it is not unusual to find discrepancies between attitudes and behaviour in travel behaviour research. The objective of the present work is to understand the relationship between awareness, attitude and behaviour in the context of mode choice and to measure the effect of awareness after the implementation of a soft measure after controlling for individual environmental attitudes. Using a dataset gathered in two weeks, before and after individuals are informed of the benefits of using park and ride (P&R) instead of their car, we estimated a hybrid mode choice model

Development of a Technological Platform for Implementing VTBC Programs

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Tutorial sobre la Plataforma Educativa ECONET - Moodle de la FCE

Tal y como se especifica en la página de presentación de la FCE una de nuestras tareas consiste en ofrecer servicio de apoyo pedagógico y técnico para ayudar en el uso de las Nuevas Tecnologías y las redes en la enseñanza universitaria. En esta línea de actuación se enmarca el alojamiento en un servidor específico de la FCE de asignaturas, eventos... de nuestra Universidad. En años anteriores se ha desarrollado una Plataforma propia que ha sido y es una herramienta válida para los usuarios. No obstante, se ha optado por la incorporación de otra Plataforma y que por su especificidad se denomina ECONet- Moodle la cual dispone de una integración de funcionalidades muy demandada por el profesorado

Propensity for Voluntary Travel Behavior Changes: An Experimental Analysis

In this paper we analyze individual propensity to voluntary travel behavior change combining concepts from theory of change with the methodologies deriving from behavioral models. In particular, following the theory of voluntary changes, we set up a two-week panel survey including soft measure implementation, which consisted of providing car users with a personalized travel plan after the first week of observation (before) and using the second week to monitoring the post-behavior (after). These data have then been used to estimate a Mixed Logit for the choice to use a personal vehicle or a light metro; and a Multinomial Logit for the decision to change behavior. Results from both models show the relevance of providing information about available alternatives to individuals while promoting voluntary travel behavioral change

Defining Kawasaki disease and pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome-temporally associated to SARS-CoV-2 infection during SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy: results from a national, multicenter survey

Background: There is mounting evidence on the existence of a Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome-temporally associated to SARS-CoV-2 infection (PIMS-TS), sharing similarities with Kawasaki Disease (KD). The main outcome of the study were to better characterize the clinical features and the treatment response of PIMS-TS and to explore its relationship with KD determining whether KD and PIMS are two distinct entities. Methods: The Rheumatology Study Group of the Italian Pediatric Society launched a survey to enroll patients diagnosed with KD (Kawasaki Disease Group - KDG) or KD-like (Kawacovid Group - KCG) disease between February 1st 2020, and May 31st 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory data, treatment information, and patients' outcome were collected in an online anonymized database (RedCAP®). Relationship between clinical presentation and SARS-CoV-2 infection was also taken into account. Moreover, clinical characteristics of KDG during SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (KDG-CoV2) were compared to Kawasaki Disease patients (KDG-Historical) seen in three different Italian tertiary pediatric hospitals (Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo", Trieste; AOU Meyer, Florence; IRCCS Istituto Giannina Gaslini, Genoa) from January 1st 2000 to December 31st 2019. Chi square test or exact Fisher test and non-parametric Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney test were used to study differences between two groups. Results: One-hundred-forty-nine cases were enrolled, (96 KDG and 53 KCG). KCG children were significantly older and presented more frequently from gastrointestinal and respiratory involvement. Cardiac involvement was more common in KCG, with 60,4% of patients with myocarditis. 37,8% of patients among KCG presented hypotension/non-cardiogenic shock. Coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) were more common in the KDG. The risk of ICU admission were higher in KCG. Lymphopenia, higher CRP levels, elevated ferritin and troponin-T characterized KCG. KDG received more frequently immunoglobulins (IVIG) and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) (81,3% vs 66%; p = 0.04 and 71,9% vs 43,4%; p = 0.001 respectively) as KCG more often received glucocorticoids (56,6% vs 14,6%; p < 0.0001). SARS-CoV-2 assay more often resulted positive in KCG than in KDG (75,5% vs 20%; p < 0.0001). Short-term follow data showed minor complications. Comparing KDG with a KD-Historical Italian cohort (598 patients), no statistical difference was found in terms of clinical manifestations and laboratory data. Conclusion: Our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 infection might determine two distinct inflammatory diseases in children: KD and PIMS-TS. Older age at onset and clinical peculiarities like the occurrence of myocarditis characterize this multi-inflammatory syndrome. Our patients had an optimal response to treatments and a good outcome, with few complications and no deaths