Pathways to a cancer-free future: A protocol for modelled evaluations to minimise the future burden of colorectal cancer in Australia

Introduction With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. Methods and analysis Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments

Developing a company-specific job exposure matrix for the Asbest Chrysotile Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: Exposure assessment for retrospective industrial cohorts are often hampered by limited availability of historical measurements. This study describes the development of company-specific job-exposure matrices (JEMs) based on measurements collected over five decades for a cohort study of 35 837 workers (Asbest Chrysotile Cohort Study) in the Russian Federation to estimate their cumulative exposure to chrysotile containing dust and fibres. METHODS: Almost 100 000 recorded stationary dust measurements were available from 1951-2001 (factories) and 1964-2001 (mine). Linear mixed models were used to extrapolate for years where measurements were not available or missing. Fibre concentrations were estimated using conversion factors based on side-by-side comparisons. Dust and fibre JEMs were developed and exposures were allocated by linking them to individual workers' detailed occupational histories. RESULTS: The cohort covered a total of 515 355 employment-years from 1930 to 2010. Of these individuals, 15% worked in jobs not considered professionally exposed to chrysotile. The median cumulative dust exposure was 26 mg/m3 years for the entire cohort and 37.2 mg/m3 years for those professionally exposed. Median cumulative fibre exposure was 16.4 fibre/cm3 years for the entire cohort and 23.4 fibre/cm3 years for those professionally exposed. Cumulative exposure was highly dependent on birth cohort and gender. Of those professionally exposed, women had higher cumulative exposures than men as they were more often employed in factories with higher exposure concentrations rather than in the mine. CONCLUSIONS: Unique company-specific JEMs were derived using a rich measurement database that overlapped with most employment-years of cohort members and will enable estimation of quantitative exposure-response

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands: a comparative modelling study

Background: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and morta

Additional file 1: Table S1. of Quantifying disparities in cancer incidence and mortality of Australian residents of New South Wales (NSW) by place of birth: an ecological study

Region of birth groupings (DOCX 16 kb

Cancer Incidence in Migrants in Australia: Patterns of Three Infection-Related Cancers

Background: Australia provides an ideal population-base for cancer migration studies because of its multicultural society and high-quality cancer registrations. Among migrant groups there is considerable variability in the incidence of infection-related cancers; thus, the patterns of three such cancers were examined among migrant groups relative to Australian-born residents. Methods: Using national incidence data for cancers of the stomach, liver, and cervix diagnosed during 2005 to 2014, incidence rates were compared for selected migrant groups with the Australian-born population using incidence rate ratios (IRR), from a negative binomial regression model. Results: Wide variations in incidence between countries/ regions of birth were observed for all three cancers (P < 0.0001). The patterns were similar for cancers of the stomach and liver, in that migrants from countries/regions with higher incidence rates maintained an increased risk in Australia, with the highest being among South American migrants (IRR ¼ 2.35) for stomach cancer and among Vietnamese migrants (5.44) for liver cancer. In contrast, incidence rates of cervical cancer were lower for many migrant groups, with women from Southern Asia (0.39) and North Africa (0.42) having the lowest rates. The rate of cervical cancer was higher in migrants from New Zealand, Philippines, and Polynesia. Conclusions: Several Australian migrant groups were found to experience a disproportionate burden of infection-related cancers; further studies of associated risk factors may inform the design of effective interventions to mediate these disparities. Impact: By identifying these migrant groups, it is hoped that these results will motivate and inform prevention or early detection activities for these migrant groups.</p

Who stops selling? : a systematic analysis of ex-tobacco retailers

Objective There is evidence that wide distribution of cigarettes contributes to smoking, and multiple commentators have called for a review of tobacco retailing. This study analyses retailers who stop selling cigarettes, why they do so, and discusses the implications for tobacco control. Method An audit of tobacco retailers in the Australian state of NSW was used to identify retailers who had stopped selling tobacco, and they were then compared with current retailers to determine how many, and what types of outlets stop selling tobacco. Attempts were made to contact and interview all former tobacco retailers identified in three audited regions. In-depth interviews were conducted with 13 ex-tobacco retailers, or 31% of the subset of ex-tobacco retailers. Results Low-volume outlet types were over-represented as a proportion of retailers exiting the market, and some had resumed selling within 18 months of the audit. Low profits were often cited as a contributor to stopping; however, in all but one case, the decision to stop selling was also influenced by a significant change in business circumstances—either legislative or other business changes. Conclusions Few retailers stop selling tobacco while continuing in the same business, and those who stop disproportionately represent retailer types with low sales volume. The results suggest that legislative changes provide a window where retailers could be prompted to exit the market

Evidence of the clinical effectiveness of cognitive pharmaceutical services for aged patients

Background: cognitive pharmaceutical services (CPSs) encompass a variety of pharmacists’ interventions to optimise pharmacotherapy. The clinical effectiveness of CPSs for aged patients remains controversial. Objective: to analyse and describe the evidence of the clinical effectiveness of CPSs in aged patients by means of performing a systematic review of systematic reviews. Methods: using the recommended methodology by Cochrane, a search was undertaken for systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness of CPSs in MEDLINE, EMBASE, DOAJ, SCIELO and COCHRANE LIBRARY. Reviews were assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) instrument. Quality of the evidence in the reviews was ranked using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system. Results: a total of 14 systematic reviews and one meta-analysis were analysed. The overall quality of the reviews was moderate. High and moderate strength of evidence was found for the positive effect of certain CPSs on reducing the number and improving the appropriateness of medicines. There was conflicting evidence of the effect on adherence. There was limited evidence of high and moderate strength on clinical outcomes. No positive evidence was found on mortality, hospitalisations, functional capacity and cognitive function. No systematic reviews reported the effect on the level of control of health problems. Conclusions: certain types of CPSs reduce the number of medicines and improve the appropriateness of prescriptions. Longer follow-up periods and/or the use of surrogate clinical variables measuring the short-term impact are required to demonstrate the effect on clinical outcomes.This work is part of a PhD undertaken by a student sponsored by Abbott Laboratories but they did not commission nor play any role in the research

Improving Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program outcomes through increased participation and cost-effective investment.

BACKGROUND:The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) provides biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) screening for people aged 50-74 years. Previous work has quantified the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) deaths prevented by the NBCSP and has shown that it is cost-effective. With a 40% screening participation rate, the NBCSP is currently underutilised and could be improved by increasing program participation, but the maximum appropriate level of spending on effective interventions to increase adherence has not yet been quantified. OBJECTIVES:To estimate (i) reductions in CRC cases and deaths for 2020-2040 attributable to, and (ii) the threshold for cost-effective investment (TCEI) in, effective future interventions to improve participation in the NBCSP. METHODS:A comprehensive microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate CRC natural history and screening in Australia, considering currently reported NBCSP adherence rates, i.e. iFOBT participation (∼40%) and diagnostic colonoscopy assessment rates (∼70%). Australian residents aged 40-74 were modelled. We evaluated three scenarios: (1) diagnostic colonoscopy assessment increasing to 90%; (2) iFOBT screening participation increasing to 60% by 2020, 70% by 2030 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%; and (3) iFOBT screening increasing to 90% by 2020 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%. In each scenario, we estimated CRC incidence and mortality, colonoscopies, costs, and TCEI given indicative willingness-to-pay thresholds of AUD$10,000-$30,000/LYS. RESULTS:By 2040, age-standardised CRC incidence and mortality rates could be reduced from 46.2 and 13.5 per 100,000 persons, respectively, if current participation rates continued, to (1) 44.0 and 12.7, (2) 36.8 and 8.8, and (3) 31.9 and 6.5. In Scenario 2, 23,000 lives would be saved from 2020-2040 vs current participation rates. The estimated scenario-specific TCEI (Australian dollars or AUD$/year) to invest in interventions to increase participation, given a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD$10,000/LYS, was (1) AUD$14.9M, (2) AUD$72.0M, and (3) AUD$76.5M. CONCLUSION:Significant investment in evidence-based interventions could be used to improve NBCSP adherence and help realise the program's potential. Such interventions might include mass media campaigns to increase program participation, educational or awareness interventions for practitioners, and/or interventions resulting in improvements in referral pathways. Any set of interventions which achieves at least 70$72 million annually would be highly cost-effective (<AUD$10,000/LYS) and save 23,000 additional lives from 2020-2040

Colonoscopies in Australia – how much does the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program contribute to colonoscopy use?

Objectives and importance of study: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is Australia’s fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer. CRC screening is an effective intervention to reduce this burden. The National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) provides 2-yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood tests (iFOBTs) to Australians aged 50–74 years; a diagnostic colonoscopy is conducted after a positive iFOBT. Clinical guidelines inform colonoscopy usage, and appropriate use of these guidelines is vital to investigate gastrointestinal symptoms, detect bowel abnormalities and CRC, and remove precancerous polyps. Colonoscopy services are under strain, with limited formal strategies to prioritise patients. There are concerns among practitioners and patient advocates that the NBCSP generates additional colonoscopy requests and increases wait times, worsening patient outcomes and prolonging distress. In this research study, we estimate and project colonoscopy use in Australia from 2001 to 2030 and determine the impact of the NBCSP by examining model-estimated NBCSP colonoscopy demand. Methods: Colonoscopy use in Australia was compiled using Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) claims for colonoscopies from 2001 to 2019. From these data, projections were made from 2020 to 2030. Policy1-Bowel, a microsimulation model, was used to estimate NBCSP-related colonoscopy demand from screening follow-up and colonoscopic surveillance from 2006 to 2030. Results: MBS-funded colonoscopy use increased from 284 676 in 2001 to 663 213 in 2019. Annual use is projected to be more than 780 000 by 2030. Of these, 10–14% are projected to be generated by the NBCSP. Per-capita MBS-funded colonoscopy utilisation increased 0.2% annually over 2015–2019, a slowing of growth compared to previous trends. Conclusion: The NBCSP accounts for a modest fraction of colonoscopy use in Australia, and a better understanding of colonoscopy use not associated with the NBCSP is needed. Promoting adherence to guideline-recommended iFOBT and colonoscopy use could ease pressure on services and improve outcomes