The Spheromak Tilting and How it Affects Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections

Spheromak-type flux ropes are increasingly used for modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Many models aim at accurately reconstructing the magnetic field topology of CMEs, considering its importance in assessing their impact on modern technology and human activities in space and on the ground. However, so far there is little discussion about how the details of the magnetic structure of a spheromak affect its evolution through the ambient field in the modeling domain and what impact this has on the accuracy of magnetic field topology predictions. If the spheromak has its axis of symmetry (geometric axis) at an angle with respect to the direction of the ambient field, then the spheromak starts rotating so that its symmetry axis finally aligns with the ambient field. When using the spheromak in space weather forecasting models, this tilting can happen already during insertion and significantly affects the results. In this paper, we highlight this issue previously not examined in the field of space weather and we estimate the angle by which the spheromak rotates under different conditions. To do this, we generated simple purely radial ambient magnetic field topologies (weak/strong, positive/negative) and inserted spheromaks with varying initial speed, tilt, and magnetic helicity sign. We employ different physical and geometric criteria to locate the magnetic center of mass and axis of symmetry of the spheromak. We confirm that spheromaks rotate in all investigated conditions and their direction and angle of rotation depend on the spheromak's initial properties and ambient magnetic field strength and orientation.Peer reviewe

Validation scheme for solar coronal models : Constraints from multi-perspective observations in EUV and white-light

Context. In this paper, we present a validation scheme to investigate the quality of coronal magnetic field models, which is based on comparisons with observational data from multiple sources. Aims. Many of these coronal models may use a range of initial parameters that produce a large number of physically reasonable field configurations. However, that does not mean that these results are reliable and comply with the observations. With an appropriate validation scheme, which is the aim of this work, the quality of a coronal model can be assessed. Methods. The validation scheme was developed with the example of the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) coronal model. For observational comparison, we used extreme ultraviolet and white-light data to detect coronal features on the surface (open magnetic field areas) and off-limb (streamer and loop) structures from multiple perspectives (Earth view and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory - STEREO). The validation scheme can be applied to any coronal model that produces magnetic field line topology. Results. We show its applicability by using the validation scheme on a large set of model configurations, which can be efficiently reduced to an ideal set of parameters that matches best with observational data. Conclusions. We conclude that by using a combined empirical visual classification with a mathematical scheme of topology metrics, a very efficient and objective quality assessment for coronal models can be performed.Peer reviewe

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

We investigate here the magnetic properties of a large-scale magnetic flux rope related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on September 12, 2014 and produced a well-defined flux rope in interplanetary space on September 14-15, 2014. We apply a fully data-driven and time-dependent magnetofrictional method (TMFM) using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) magnetograms as the lower boundary condition. The simulation self-consistently produces a coherent flux rope and its ejection from the simulation domain. This paper describes the identification of the flux rope from the simulation data and defining its key parameters (e.g., twist and magnetic flux). We define the axial magnetic flux of the flux rope and the magnetic field time series from at the apex and at different distances from the apex of the flux rope. Our analysis shows that TMFM yields axial magnetic flux values that are in agreement with several observational proxies. The extracted magnetic field time series do not match well with in-situ components in direct comparison presumably due to interplanetary evolution and northward propagation of the CME. The study emphasizes also that magnetic field time-series are strongly dependent on how the flux rope is intercepted which presents a challenge for space weather forecasting.Peer reviewe

Studying the spheromak rotation in data-constrained CME modelling with EUHFORIA and assessing its effect on the Bz prediction

A key challenge in space weather forecasting is accurately predicting the magnetic field topology of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), specifically the north-south magnetic field component (Bz) for Earth-directed CMEs. Heliospheric MHD models typically use spheromaks to represent the magnetic structure of CMEs. However, when inserted into the ambient interplanetary magnetic field, spheromaks can experience a phenomenon reminiscent of the condition known as the "spheromak tilting instability", causing its magnetic axis to rotate. From the perspective of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to understand the effect of this rotation on predicting Bz at 1 au while implementing the spheromak model for realistic event studies. In this work, we study this by modelling a CME event on 2013 April 11 using the "EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset" (EUHFORIA). Our results show that a significant spheromak rotation up to 90 degrees has occurred by the time it reaches 1 au, while the majority of this rotation occurs below 0.3 au. This total rotation resulted in poor predicted magnetic field topology of the ICME at 1 au. To address this issue, we further investigated the influence of spheromak density on mitigating rotation. The results show that the spheromak rotation is less for higher densities. Importantly, we observe a substantial reduction in the uncertainties associated with predicting Bz when there is minimal spheromak rotation. Therefore, we conclude that spheromak rotation adversely affects Bz prediction in the analyzed event, emphasizing the need for caution when employing spheromaks in global MHD models for space weather forecasting.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement (ApJS) serie

Neutron Monitors and Cosmogenic Isotopes as Cosmic Ray Energy-Integration Detectors : Effective Yield Functions, Effective Energy, and Its Dependence on the Local Interstellar Spectrum

The method of assessment of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) variability over different timescales, using energy-integrating ground-based detectors such as a neutron monitor and cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C stored in natural archives is revisited here. The effective yield functions for cosmogenic 14C (globally mixed in the atmosphere) and 10Be (realistically deposited in the polar region) are calculated and provided, in a tabulated form, in the supporting information. The effective energy of a detector is redefined so that the variability of the flux of GCR particles at this energy is equal to that of the detector's count rate. The effective energy is found as 11–12 GeV/nucleon for the standard polar neutron monitor, and 6–7 GeV/nucleon and 5.5–6 GeV/nucleon for 14C and 10Be, respectively. New “calibration” relations between the force-field modulation potentials, based on different models of local interstellar spectra (LIS) are provided. While such relations are typically based on refitting the modeled cosmic ray spectra with a prescribed LIS model, the method introduced here straightforwardly accounts for the exact type of the detector used to assess the spectrum. The relations are given separately for ground-based neutron monitors and cosmogenic isotopes. This work allows for harmonization of different works related to variability of galactic cosmic ray flux in the vicinity of Earth, on long-term scale.Peer reviewe

Solar Energetic-Particle Ground-Level Enhancements and the Solar Cycle

Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and the declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles, and show different patterns of occurrence in odd- and even-numbered solar cycles. Our knowledge of the most extreme space-weather events, however, comes from spikes in cosmogenic-isotope (C-14, Be-10, and Cl-36) records that are attributed to significantly larger solar energetic-particle (SEP) events than have been observed during the space age. Despite both storms and SEPs being driven by solar-eruptive phenomena, the event-by-event correspondence between extreme storms and extreme SEPs is low. Thus, it should not be assumed a priori that the solar-cycle patterns found for storms also hold for SEPs and the cosmogenic-isotope events. In this study, we investigate the solar-cycle trends in the timing and magnitude of the 67 SEP ground-level enhancements (GLEs) recorded by neutron monitors since the mid-1950s. Using a number of models of GLE-occurrence probability, we show that GLEs are around a factor of four more likely around solar maximum than around solar minimum, and that they preferentially occur earlier in even-numbered solar cycles than in odd-numbered cycles. There are insufficient data to conclusively determine whether larger solar cycles produce more GLEs. Implications for putative space-weather events in the cosmogenic-isotope records are discussed. We find that GLEs tend to cluster within a few tens of days, likely due to particularly productive individual active regions, and with approximately 11-year separations, owing to the solar-cycle ordering. However, these timescales would not explain any cosmogenic-isotope spikes requiring multiple extreme SEP events over consecutive years.Peer reviewe

Solar energetic particle time series analysis with Python

Peer reviewe

Assessment of different sunspot number series using the cosmogenic isotope 44 Ti in meteorites

Many sunspot number series exist suggesting different levels of solar activity during the past centuries. Their reliability can be assessed only by comparing them with alternative indirect proxies. We test different sunspot number series against the updated record of cosmogenic radionuclide 44Ti measured in meteorites. Two bounding scenarios of solar activity changes have been considered: the HH-scenario (based on the series by Svalgaard and Schatten), in particular, predicting moderate activity during the Maunder minimum, and the LL-scenario (based on the RG series by Lockwood et al.) predicting moderate activity for the 18th–19th centuries and the very low activity level for the Maunder minimum. For each scenario, the magnetic open solar flux, the heliospheric modulation potential and the expected production of 44Ti were computed. The calculated production rates were compared with the corresponding measurements of 44Ti activity in stony meteorites fallen since 1766. The analysis reveals that the LL-scenario is fully consistent with the measured 44Ti data, in particular, recovering the observed secular trend between the 17th century and the Modern grand maximum. On the contrary, the HH-scenario appears significantly inconsistent with the data, mostly due to the moderate level of activity during the Maunder minimum. It is concluded that the HH-scenario sunspot number reconstruction significantly overestimates solar activity prior to the mid-18th century, especially during the Maunder minimum. The exact level of solar activity after 1750 cannot be distinguished with this method, since both H- and L- scenarios appear statistically consistent with the data

On the short term stability and tilting motion of a well-observed low-latitude solar coronal hole

The understanding of the solar magnetic coronal structure is tightly linked to the shape of open field regions, specifically coronal holes. A dynamically evolving coronal hole coincides with the local restructuring of open to closed magnetic field, which leads to changes in the interplanetary solar wind structure. By investigating the dynamic evolution of a fast-tilting coronal hole, we strive to uncover clues about what processes may drive its morphological changes, which are clearly visible in EUV filtergrams. Using combined 193A and 195A EUV observations by AIA/SDO and EUVI/STEREO_A, in conjunction with line-of-sight magnetograms taken by HMI/SDO, we track and analyze a coronal hole over 12 days to derive changes in morphology, area and magnetic field. We complement this analysis by potential field source surface modeling to compute the open field structure of the coronal hole. We find that the coronal hole exhibits an apparent tilting motion over time that cannot solely be explained by solar differential rotation. It tilts at a mean rate of ~3.2{\deg}/day that accelerates up to ~5.4{\deg}/day. At the beginning of May, the area of the coronal hole decreases by more than a factor of three over four days (from ~13 * 10^9 km^2 to ~4 * 10^9 km^2), but its open flux remains constant (~2 * 10^20 Mx). Further, the observed evolution is not reproduced by modeling that assumes the coronal magnetic field to be potential. In this study, we present a solar coronal hole that tilts at a rate that has yet to be reported in literature. The rate exceeds the effect of the coronal hole being advected by either photospheric or coronal differential rotation. Based on the analysis we find it likely that this is due to morphological changes in the coronal hole boundary caused by ongoing interchange reconnection and the interaction with a newly emerging ephemeral region in its vicinity.Comment: Accepted in A&A September 15, 2023; 10 pages, 8 figure

Eruption and Interplanetary Evolution of a Stealthy Streamer-Blowout CME Observed by PSP at ∼0.5 AU

Streamer-blowout coronal mass ejections (SBO-CMEs) are the dominant CME population during solar minimum. Although they are typically slow and lack clear low-coronal signatures, they can cause geomagnetic storms. With the aid of extrapolated coronal fields and remote observations of the off-limb low corona, we study the initiation of an SBO-CME preceded by consecutive CME eruptions consistent with a multi-stage sympathetic breakout scenario. From inner-heliospheric Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations, it is evident that the SBO-CME is interacting with the heliospheric magnetic field and plasma sheet structures draped about the CME flux rope. We estimate that 18 +/- 11% of the CME's azimuthal magnetic flux has been eroded through magnetic reconnection and that this erosion began after a heliospheric distance of similar to 0.35 AU from the Sun was reached. This observational study has important implications for understanding the initiation of SBO-CMEs and their interaction with the heliospheric surroundings.Peer reviewe