Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Biological control of damping-off and root rot of fenugreek

Eight Trichoderma and nine bacterial isolates which isolated from rhizospher and nodules of fenugreek plants. Also four  isolates of rhizobacteria (PGPR) namely Basillus subtilis (B.s), Basillus polymyxa (B.p), Basillus megaterium (B.m) and Pseudomonas fluorescens (P.f ) were tested in vitro for thir ability against Fusarium solani, Rhizoctonia solani and Macrophomina phaseolina which caused damping-off and root rot of fenugreek plants.The results showed that  Trichoderma isolate number (T3) gave  the highest reduction on maycelial growth of three pathogenic  fungi followed by isolate number (T2) which adentified as Trichoderma harzianum and Trichoderma hamatum, respectively. Pseudomonas fluorescens followed by Basillus polymyxa , Rhizobium sp. isolate (Rh3), Basillus subtilis and Basillus megaterium gave highly antagonistic effect was clear against the tested fungi as will as used in greenhous experiment. A pot experiment was carried out under greenhouse conditions. Results showed that Treated seed of fenugreek caltivar (Giza 2 cv.)  with Rhizobacteria and or  treated soil with T. harzianum and T. hamatum reduced pre and post damping-off  and root rot diseases of fenugreek and increased survival plant compared with the control. Trichoderma harzianum followed by Rhizobium sp. isolate (Rh3) gave the best reduction in these respects

Comparison of early effects of right ventricular apical pacing on left ventricular functions in single and dual chamber pacemakers

Objectives: Our study aimed to demonstrate the early negative impact of right ventricular apical pacing induced by single (VVI) and dual chamber (DDD) pacemakers on LV functions in patients with preserved EF. And to assess that single brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) after 2 months of implantation is correlated to ventricular dyssynchrony. Methods: 40 patients with implanted VVI and DDD pacemakers were examined before implantation and again after 2 and 6 months of implantation for BNP, left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic functions by echocardiography and pulsed tissue Doppler. After 6 months, patients with DDD pacemakers were crossed over to VVI mode of pacing for 2 weeks with lower rate programed to 60 beat per minute then sample for BNP was collected again. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in LV systolic and diastolic functions except for myocardial performance index (MPI) with (P value of 0.03). Mean BNP level in VVI pacing was higher than DDD pacing after two months with P value = 0.001 while comparison after 6 months showed P value = 0.023. There was a statistically significant difference between both groups in results of aortic preejection delay (APED) (P value of <0.05). BNP was correlated to APED (r = 0.651 and P value = 0.001) and pacing percentage (r = 0.687 and P value = 0.00). Conclusion: Loss of atrioventricular synchrony in VVI mode leads to a significant difference in LV dyssynchrony between both groups. BNP level is correlated to LV dyssynchrony and pacing percentage