Evolution of Crop Water Productivity in the Nile Delta over Three Decades (1985–2015)

Estimating crop water productivity (CWP) for spatially variable climatic conditions in Egypt is important for the redistribution of crop planting to optimize production per unit of water consumed. The current paper aims to estimate maximum CWP trends under conditions of the Northern Nile Delta over three decades to choose crops that exhibit a higher productivity per unit of water and positive trends in the CWP. The Kafr El Sheikh Governorate was selected to represent the Northern Nile Delta Region, and mean monthly weather data for the period of 1985 to 2015 were collected to calculate standardized reference evapotranspiration and crop water use for a wide array of crops grown in the region using the CROPWAT8.0 model. The CWP was then calculated by dividing crop yield by seasonal water consumption. The CWP data range from 0.69 to 13.79 kg·m−3 for winter field crops, 3.40 to 10.69 kg·m−3 for winter vegetables, 0.29 to 6.04 kg·m−3 for summer field crops, 2.38 to 7.65 kg·m−3 for summer vegetables, 1.00 to 5.38 kg·m−3 for nili season crops (short-season post summer), and 0.66 to 3.35 kg·m−3 for orchards. The crops with the highest CWP values (kg·m−3) over three decades in descending order are: sugar beet (13.79), potato (w2) (10.69), tomato (w) (10.58), eggplant (w) (10.05), potato (w1) (9.98), cucumber (w) (9.81), and cabbage (w) (9.59). There was an increase in CWP of 41% from the first to the second and 22% from the second to the third decade. The CWP increase is attributed to a small decrease in water consumption and to a considerable increase in crop yield. The yield increases are attributed mainly to the planting of higher yielding varieties and/or the application of better agronomic practices

Evolution of Crop Water Productivity in the Nile Delta over Three Decades (1985–2015)

Estimating crop water productivity (CWP) for spatially variable climatic conditions in Egypt is important for the redistribution of crop planting to optimize production per unit of water consumed. The current paper aims to estimate maximum CWP trends under conditions of the Northern Nile Delta over three decades to choose crops that exhibit a higher productivity per unit of water and positive trends in the CWP. The Kafr El Sheikh Governorate was selected to represent the Northern Nile Delta Region, and mean monthly weather data for the period of 1985 to 2015 were collected to calculate standardized reference evapotranspiration and crop water use for a wide array of crops grown in the region using the CROPWAT8.0 model. The CWP was then calculated by dividing crop yield by seasonal water consumption. The CWP data range from 0.69 to 13.79 kg·m−3 for winter field crops, 3.40 to 10.69 kg·m−3 for winter vegetables, 0.29 to 6.04 kg·m−3 for summer field crops, 2.38 to 7.65 kg·m−3 for summer vegetables, 1.00 to 5.38 kg·m−3 for nili season crops (short-season post summer), and 0.66 to 3.35 kg·m−3 for orchards. The crops with the highest CWP values (kg·m−3) over three decades in descending order are: sugar beet (13.79), potato (w2) (10.69), tomato (w) (10.58), eggplant (w) (10.05), potato (w1) (9.98), cucumber (w) (9.81), and cabbage (w) (9.59). There was an increase in CWP of 41% from the first to the second and 22% from the second to the third decade. The CWP increase is attributed to a small decrease in water consumption and to a considerable increase in crop yield. The yield increases are attributed mainly to the planting of higher yielding varieties and/or the application of better agronomic practices

Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Egypt

This paper presents a comprehensive study to assess the impact of climate change on Egypt’s water resources, focusing on irrigation water for agricultural crops, considering that the agriculture sector is the largest consumer of water in Egypt. The study aims to estimate future climate conditions using general circulation models (GCMs), to assess the impact of climate change and temperature increase on water demands for irrigation using the CROPWAT 8 model, and to determine the suitable irrigation type to adapt with future climate change. A case study was selected in the Middle part of Egypt. The study area includes Giza, Bani-Sweif, Al-Fayoum, and Minya governorates. The irrigation water requirements for major crops under current weather conditions and future climatic changes were estimated. Under the conditions of the four selected models CCSM-30, GFDLCM20, GFDLCM21, and GISS-EH, as well as the chosen scenario of A1BAIM, climate model (MAGICC/ScenGen) was applied in 2050 and 2100 to estimate the potential rise in the annual mean temperature in Middle Egypt. The results of the MAGICC/SceGen model indicated that the potential rise in temperature in the study area will be 2.12 °C in 2050, and 3.96 °C in 2100. The percentage of increase in irrigation water demands for winter crops under study ranged from 6.1 to 7.3% in 2050, and from 11.7 to 13.2% in 2100. At the same time, the increase in irrigation water demands for summer crops ranged from 4.9 to 5.8% in 2050, and from 9.3 to 10.9% in 2100. For Nili crops, the increase ranged from 5.0 to 5.1% in 2050, and from 9.6 to 9.9% in 2100. The increase in water demands due to climate change will affect the water security in Egypt, as the available water resources are limited, and population growth is another challenge which requires a proper management of water resources

Global climate change and vulnerability of African agriculture: implications for resilience and sustained productive capacity

Despite noticeable improvements in recent socio-economic performance in Africa, variations exist across countries and performance is constrained by plethora of factors that inhibit the attainment of Africa’s optimum production potential. Changing climate and environmental factors have contributed to increased transactions costs, lower productivity of factors of production, increased bottlenecks in the production process and investment challenges, especially for small and medium scale farmers in varying degrees across the continent. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on farming activities in Africa. Four countries across the continent are studied, viz. Burkina Faso, Egypt, Kenya and South Africa. We examine how long-term profitability of 4,000 farms vary with local climate, such as temperature and precipitation. To better ascertain the impact of climate variables, the marginal impacts of unit changes in temperatures and precipitation on crop farming activities are studied. Using selected climate scenarios, predictions are made on the extent to which projected climate changes will affect net revenues by the year 2050 and 2100. The findings suggest that climate affects agricultural returns in the four countries. The results further show that there is a non-linear relationship between temperature and crop revenue on the one hand and between precipitation and crop revenue on the other. Overall, the temperature elasticity suggests that global warming is harmful for agriculture across all the countries. These have profound implications for the policy requirements to address the productive capacity and resilience of the agricultural sector. Effort will be required to enhance adaptation at farm, regional and national levels. Policy adjustments will in addition require increased liberalization of the financial system and an implementation of agriculture civil service reforms for better performance of the extension service. This may have further implications for state budgeting and agriculture sector expenditures which will without doubt require new shifts