Validation of landslide susceptibility using a GIS-based statistical model and Remote Sensing Data in the Amzaz watershed in northern Morocco

The main objective of this research is to examine and validate the landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA)results of the spatial probability of landslide occurrence in the Amzaz watershed area in Northern Morocco,setting out to create a helpful agent for the decision-makers of land-use policies. In order to reach the maingoal of this study, two sub-objectives were defined: the presenting of the physiography and the cartographyof the geographical components of the study area, and the analysis of the LSA using a statistical-basedmethod, Information Value Method (IVM), as a criteria required by the Model. Lastly, the validation of theresults through the prediction and success rates was carried out. Landslide susceptibility is the probabilitythat landslides will be generated in the predicted zone depending on local terrain characteristics.Several methods are proposed for landslide susceptibility assessment worldwide. IVM has been applied toprepare the landslide susceptibility map. This paper envisages the definition of the settings of the study areaas well as the geophysical characteristics by means of the acquisition and preparation of predisposing factors,such as the geology, land use and climate and the application of the IVM on LSA using a statistically basedmethod for each subset of the landslide inventory.This study is aimed at a prediction vision for sustainability as an alternative and this is not limited todegradation processes. It also concerns the efforts made to adapt to the impacts and even those of mitigatingchange. The promotion of sustainable development in risk areas requires an effort to analyze and evaluatelocal practices and approaches. This is what we are trying to do through this work, which starts from amethodological basis to validate a model for predicting landslides affecting the Moroccan Central Rif area

Landslides susceptibility modelling using Multivariate Logistic Regression Model in the Sahla Watershed in Northern Morocco

This study aimed to assess landslide susceptibility in the Sahla watershed in northern Morocco. Landslides hazard is the most frequent phenomenon in this part of the state due to its mountainous precarious environment. The abundance of rainfall makes this area suffer mass movements led to a notable adverse impact on the nearby settlements and infrastructures. There were 93 identified landslide scars. Landslide inventories were collected from Google Earth image interpretations. They were prepared out of landslide events in the past, and future landslide occurrence was predicted by correlating landslide predisposing factors. In this paper, landslide inventories are divided into two groups, one for landslide training and the other for validation. The Landslide Susceptibility Map (LSM) is prepared by Logistic Regression (LR) Statistical Method. Lithology, stream density, land use, slope curvature, elevation, topographic wetness index, slope aspect, and slope angle were used as conditioning factors. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was employed to examine the performance of the model. In the analysis, the LR model results in 96% accuracy in the AUC. The LSM consists of the predicted landslide area. Hence it can be used to reduce the potential hazard linked with the landslides in the Sahla watershed area in Rif Mountains in northern Morocco

The global change impacts on forest natural resources in Central Rif Mountains in northern Morocco: extensive exploration and planning perspective

As mudanças globais, incluindo a transformação social, ambiental e económica, constituemuma grande desvantagem para o desenvolvimento sustentável da área de montanha do RifCentral, Marrocos. A degradação acelerada dos recursos florestais nesta área demonstraque há uma interação dinâmica entre a biosfera e os grupos comunitários.Estas interações, em constante mudança, entre as necessidades quotidianas e as limitadascapacidades do ambiente natural dão origem a meios que têm vindo a ser desenvolvidos,construídos ou, em geral, alterados ou degradados. Os dados disponíveis, estatísticoscartográficos, de levantamentos de campo e visitas mostraram uma regressão dassuperficies florestais a favor de novos tipos de agricultura ilegal, apesar dos programasnacionais e internacionais de desenvolvimento estabelecidos desde a década de 1960.The global changes including social, environment and economic transformation constitute amajor handicap to the sustainable development of the Moroccan Central Rif mountainsarea. The accelerated degradation of the forest resources in this area demonstrates thatthere is a dynamic interaction between the biosphere and community groups.These ever-changing interactions between the need to live and the limited of naturalenvironment skills, give rise to environments that have been developed, built or, in general,altered or degraded. The available statistical data, cartography, field surveys and visits have shown a regression of forest superficies in the profits of the new types of illegal farming,despite the national and international development programs had established since the1960s

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment based on Information Value Model in Amzaz Watershed in Northern Morocco

This paper aims to identify potential areas of landslides in the Amzaz watershed in northern Morocco with its precarious environmental balance using the Information Value (IV) Model. Van Westen (1994) defines bivariate methods as a modified form of the quantitative map combination with the exception that weightings are assigned based upon the statistical relationship between past landslides and various factor maps, individual factor maps (independent variable). A set of factor maps were overlaid with a landslide map (dependent variable) to create cross-tabulations for each one and class. The landslide inventory is used to result in the susceptibility maps for better mitigation of the risks and losses related to this phenomenon. The results demonstrated that the percentage of rotational landslides varies between 8.79 and 30.08%, and between 9.79 and 23.36% for translational slides susceptibility in the Amzaz watershed.Cet article vise à identifier les zones potentielles de glissements de terrain dans le bassin versant de l'Oued Amzaz, au nord du Maroc, dont l'équilibre environnemental est précaire, en utilisant le modèle de la valeur de l'information (IV). Van Westen (1994) définit les méthodes bivariées comme une forme modifiée de la combinaison de cartes quantitatives, à l'exception du fait que des pondérations sont attribuées en fonction de la relation statistique entre les glissements de terrain passés et les différentes cartes de facteurs, les cartes de facteurs individuels (variable indépendante). Un ensemble de cartes factorielles a été superposé à une carte des glissements de terrain (variable dépendante) afin de créer des tableaux croisés pour chacune d'entre elles et pour chaque classe. L'inventaire des glissements de terrain est utilisé pour établir les cartes de susceptibilité afin de mieux atténuer les risques et les pertes liés à ce phénomène. Les résultats ont montré que le pourcentage de glissements de terrain rotationnels varie entre 8,79 et 30,08%, et entre 9,79 et 23,36% pour la susceptibilité aux glissements translationnels dans le bassin versant de l'Oued Amzaz