The Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation in Turkey:1984-2003

In this study, we investigate empirically the causal relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation by using high-frequency data of nominal exchange rates and inflation of Turkey. To determine the appropriate Granger causality relations, unit root and cointegtration models are used. With time-series techniques, this study provides evidence that a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation exist. However, our results indicate that a causal relationship occurs only one direction from nominal exchange rates to inflation.Nominal exchange rates, inflation, causality.

Update and revision of Turkish air quality regulation

The Air Quality Assurance Regulation (AQAR) was issued on October 1986. This regulation was basically a direct translation of the German TA-Luft of 1984. The main purpose of AQAR was to control the effect of industry, domestic heating and Traffic on ambient air quality which previously had not adequately been represented. Two new regulations, "Industry Related Air Pollution Control Regulation" (IRAPCR) and "Heating Related Air Pollution Control Regulation" (HRAPCR), came into force in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Two more regulations on traffic-related air pollution control and ambient air quality are to be issued. In this study, we evaluate the two air pollution control regulations IRAPCR and HRAPCR on legal, technical, administrative, practical and global basis. A comparison of these two new regulations with EU Directives has also been made.Publisher's Versio

Postmortem Süreçte COVID-19 Enfeksiyon Etkeninin Pozitif Kalma Süresi

Objective:Studies show that in patients diagnosed with Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can give false negative results depending on sampling techniques/regions. In this study; the positivity of virus RNA was studied consecutive lung tru-cut needle biopsy taken at 6-hour intervals in cases who died during treatment due to COVID-19 infection, it was aimed to determine the postmortem safe working range.Methods:In May 2020-April 2021, 21 patients who died during treatment due to COVID-19 infection diagnosed with clinical and/or RNA detection in Muğla Training Research Hospital, Anesthesia Intensive Care Unit were included. Antemortem, postmortem swabs results, and virus RNA detection by PCR made from postmortem lung tissue samples were compared with their clinics. Statistical analysis was performed.Results:Fifteen (71.4%) of 21 cases were male and 6 (28.6%) were female. The mean age is 71.9 (standard deviation=12.079). All of the toracic CT findings at hospitalization had a ground-glass opacity. The mean hospitalization time was 11.7 days. Antemortem nasopharyngeal virus positivity was shown in 13 cases (61.9%), postmortem nasopharyngeal virus positivity in 5 cases (23.8%), and virus positivity in lung tissue samples in 7 cases (33.3%). No significant correlation was found virus positivity in nasopharyngeal swab and lung tissue sample, the incompatibility rate was 19.1%, which was statistically significant.Conclusion:Although the targeted sample size could not be reached due to study limitations, the inconsistency in virus positivity in nasopharyngeal swabs and lung tissue samples is significant. It is certain that studies with a large comparative sample are needed in terms of postmortem survival time, clinical and organ damage caused by the virus

Realities & constraints of coal from energy and environmental perspectives

[No abstract available]Publisher's Versio

FRATRICIDE IN OTTOMAN LAW

This paper considers fratricide in the Ottoman Empire from the Islamic/ Ottoman Law viewpoint. The established Turkish political tradition, which is based on the fact that the ruling power is a common patrimony of the members of the dynasty, gave rise to disastrous results in the early period of the Ottoman Empire. Since a strict succession system was not imposed during that early period of the Ottoman State, it would be the destiny of a shāhzādah (prince) which would determine his fate in becoming the next sultan. This resulted in infighting amongst the shāhzādahs. Revolting against the sultan or even planning to revolt are crimes according to Islamic/Ottoman law. The execution of those members of the dynasty who had not taken part in a revolt was legislated by the “Code of Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror,” which was based on the sovereign right of the sultan accorded by Islamic Law (Orfi Hukuk). Relying on the principle of maslaha (common benefit) in Islamic law, some of the Ottoman scholars permitted fratricide as well. According to this principle, when facing two potential outcomes, the lesser of two evils is preferred. Some of the modern researchers consider this justification invalid. According to them, the execution of shāhzādahs who have not taken part in a revolt is politically correct, but contrary to Islamic law. The main contribution of this paper is to deal with the fratricide from the point of view of Islamic law by utilizing traditional legal texts and to addess to underlying Islamic legal principles behind fratricide application and what legal evidence the ‘ulemā (Ottoman scholars) based their judgment on

Intelligent classification-based methods in customer profitability modeling

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.The expected profits from customers are important informations for the companies in giving acquisition/retention decisions and developing different strategies for different customer segments. Most of these decisions can be made through intelligent Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems. We suggest embedding an intelligent Customer Profitability (CP) model in the CRM systems, in order to automatize the decisions that are based on CP values. Since one of the aims of CP analysis is to find out the most/least profitable customers, this paper proposes to evaluate the performances of the CP models based on the correct classification of customers into different profitability segments. Our study proposes predicting the segments of the customers directly with classification-based models and comparing the results with the traditional approach (value-based models) results. In this study, cost sensitive classification based models are used to predict the customer segments since misclassification of some segments are more important than others. For this aim, Classification and regression trees, Logistic regression and Chi-squared automatic interaction detector techniques are utilized. In order to compare the performance of the models, new performance measures are promoted, which are hit, capture and lift rates. It is seen that classification-based models outperform the previously used value-based models, which shows the proposed framework works out well

Comparing alternative classifiers for database marketing: the case of imbalanced datasets

There are various algorithms used for binary classification where the cases are classified into one of two non-overlapping classes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used metric to evaluate the performance of alternative binary classifiers. In this study, for the application domains where the high degree of imbalance is the main characteristic and the identification of the minority class is more important, we show that hit rate based measures are more correct to assess model performances and that they should be measured on out of time samples. We also try to identify the optimum composition of the training set. Logistic regression, neural network and CHAID algorithms are implemented for a real marketing problem of a bank and the performances are compared

Optimization of ATM cash replenishment with group-demand forecasts

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.In ATM cash replenishment banks want to use less resources (e.g., cash kept in ATMs, trucks for loading cash) for meeting fluctuated customer demands. Traditionally, forecasting procedures such as exponentially weighted moving average are applied to daily cash withdraws for individual ATMs. Then, the forecasted results are provided to optimization models for deciding the amount of cash and the trucking logistics schedules for replenishing cash to all ATMs. For some situations where individual ATM withdraws have so much variations (e.g., data collected from Istanbul ATMs) the traditional approaches do not work well. This article proposes grouping ATMs into nearby-location clusters and also optimizing the aggregates of daily cash withdraws (e.g., replenish every week instead of every day) in the forecasting process. Example studies show that this integrated forecasting and optimization procedure performs better for an objective in minimizing costs of replenishing cash, cash-interest charge and potential customer dissatisfaction.TÜBİTA

The composition of acids in bitumen and in products from saponification of kerogen: Investigation of their role as connecting kerogen and mineral matrix

In order to obtain more information and to understand the nature of relation between organic and mineral matter in oil shales, the compositions of soluble bitumen fractions obtained by extraction from Bulgarian oil shales before and after demineralization with 10% HCl, concentrated HE and a HF/HCl mixture were investigated. The four extracts were quantitatively examined by IR and H-1 NMR spectroscopy. The investigation of isolated acidic material of the bitumen fractions showed that the fatty acids are present in bitumen fractions as free acids, esters and salts. The amount of free acids in bitumen is very small. The dominant part of bitumen acids is associated with mineral components of the oil shales as well as part of them is included in the mineral matrix, and can be separated only after deep demineralization. The kerogen of the oil shales, obtained after separation of the bitumen fractions and mineral components, was subjected to saponification in order to determine the amount of acids, bound as esters to the kerogen matrix. The major components found were n-carboxylic, alpha,omega,-di-carboxylic, and aromatic acids. The connection of kerogen with mineral components is accomplished by the participation of carboxylic and complicated ester bonds. Experimental data for the composition of bitumen acids give evidence that algae and terrestrial materials are initial sources in the formation of soluble organic matter of Bulgarian oil shale.Publisher's Versio