The Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation in Turkey:1984-2003

Abstract

In this study, we investigate empirically the causal relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation by using high-frequency data of nominal exchange rates and inflation of Turkey. To determine the appropriate Granger causality relations, unit root and cointegtration models are used. With time-series techniques, this study provides evidence that a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and inflation exist. However, our results indicate that a causal relationship occurs only one direction from nominal exchange rates to inflation.Nominal exchange rates, inflation, causality.