184 research outputs found
Inferring transition probabilities from repeated cross sections: a cross-level inference approach to US presidential voting
This paper outlines a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model designed to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities at the micro-level from a time series of independent cross-sectional samples with a binary outcomevariable. The model has its origins in the work of Moffitt (1993) and shares features with standard statistical methods for ecological inference. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by the method-of-scoring, how to estimate time-varying covariate effects, and how to include non-backcastable variables in the model. The latter extension of the basic model is an important one as it strongly increases its potential application in a wide array of research contexts. The example illustration uses survey data on American presidential vote intentions from a five-wavepanel study conducted by Patterson (1980) in 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the estimates of the Markov model with the observations in the panel. Directions for future work are discussed.Markov model;transition probabilities
Ecological panel inference in repeated cross sections
This paper presents a Markov chain model for the estimation of individual-level binary transitions from a time series of independent repeated cross-sectional (RCS) samples. Although RCS samples lack direct information on individual turnover, it is demonstrated here that it is possible with these data to draw meaningful conclusions on individual state-to-state transitions. We discuss estimation and inference using maximum likelihood, parametric bootstrap and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The model is illustrated by an application to the rise in ownership of computers in Dutch households since 1986, using a 13-wave annual panel data set. These data encompass more information than we need to estimate the model, but this additional information allows us to assess the validity of the parameter estimates. We examine the determinants of the transitions from 'have-not' to 'have' (and back again) using well-known socio-economic and demographic covariates of the digital divide. Parametric bootstrap and Bayesian simulation are used to evaluate the accuracy and the precision of the ML estimates and the results are also compared with those of a first-order dynamic panel model. To mimic genuine repeated cross-sectional data, we additionally analyse samples of independent observations randomly drawn from the panel. Software implementing the model is available.
Vooroordelen van Nederlanders?
Contains fulltext :
3269.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
Etnocentrisme in de Lage Landen: Opinies over 'eigen' en 'ander' volk in Nederland en Vlaanderen
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3304.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
Orthodox religious beliefs and anti-semitism: A replication of Glock and Stark in the Netherlands
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3359.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
Het electoraat van extreem-rechts: Theoretische verklaringen, empirische bevindingen, conceptualiseringen en operationaliseringen
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3280.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Bijdrage aan de studiedag over "Extreem-rechts", Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 11 november 1994, Voorburg[24 p.
Klassepositie en autoritarisme: Hernieuwde toets van een klassieke hypothese
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3302.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
Working class authoritarianism: Evaluation of a research tradition and an empirical test
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3351.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
Arbeidersautoritarisme: Economische en culturele opvattingen van arbeiders
Contains fulltext :
3274.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access
The influence of sensationalist features in television news stories on perceived news quality and perceived sensationalism of viewers in different age groups.
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