Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock's productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). while the number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently in fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behavior, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause fisheries-induced evolution with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter then utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons, An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefor describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to the ecosystem approach to fisheries management by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries

Analysis of the risk premium in the forward market for salmon

We analyse forward prices observed at the Fishpool market, and propose a two-factor continuous-time stochastic process for modelling the time dynamics. The data analysis reveals that the two factors can be assumed to be a non-stationary compound Poisson process and a stationary continuous-time autoregressive dynamics, describing the bumps observed in the forward curves. We use the model to analyse the risk premium in the forward markets, and find a negative premium in the long end of the market which is in line with the theory of normal backwardation. However, contracts with short time to maturity have a risk premium with randomly changing sign, pointing towards a hedging pressure also induced by the demand-side of the market

Global connectivity and cross-scale interactions create uncertainty for Blue Growth of Arctic fisheries

The Arctic faces high expectations of Blue Growth due to future projections of easier access and increased biological productivity. These expectations are, however, often based on global and regional climate change projections and largely ignore the complexity of social-ecological interactions taking place across different temporal and spatial scales. This paper illustrates how such cross-scale interactions at, and across, different dimensions (e.g., ecological, socioeconomic and governance) can affect the development of Arctic fisheries; and potentially create uncertainties for future Blue Growth projections. Two Arctic marine systems, The Barents Sea and the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), are used as focus areas. The former hosts productive fisheries and is mostly covered by the EEZs of Norway and Russia, while the latter is still mainly covered by sea-ice and is a high seas area with no multilevel governance system in place. The examples show that, both systems are affected by a number of processes, beyond the environmental change, spanning a wide range of dimensions, as well as spatial and temporal scales. To address the complexity of the Arctic marine systems calls for an increase in holistic scientific understanding together with adaptive management practices. This is particularly important in the CAO, where no robust regional management structures are in place. Recognizing how cross-scale dynamics can cause uncertainties to the current fisheries projections and implementing well-functioning adaptive management structures across different Arctic sub-systems can play a key role in whether the Blue Growth potential in Arctic fisheries is realized or lost

Linking climate change to lemming cycles

The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries(1,2), and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem(2,3). Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases(4,5), and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators(3,6-9). But although predator - rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles(1,10-13), the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems(8,9,14). Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings ( Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large- scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change

Detection of immunotoxicity using T-cell based cytokine reporter cell lines ("Cell Chip")

Safety assessment of chemicals and drugs is an important regulatory issue. The evaluation of potential adverse effects of compounds on the immune system depends today on animal experiments. An increasing demand, however, exists for in vitro alternatives. Cytokine measurement is a promising tool to evaluate chemical exposure effects on the immune system. Fortunately, this type of measurement can be performed in conjunction with in vitro exposure models. We have taken these considerations as the starting point to develop an in vitro method to efficiently screen compounds for potential immunotoxicity. The T-cell lymphoma cell line EL-4 was transfected with the regulatory sequences of interleukin (IL)-2, IL-4, IL-10, interferon (IFN)-gamma or actin fused to the gene for enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) in either a stabile or a destabilised form. Consequently, changes in fluorescence intensity represent changes in cytokine expression with one cell line per cytokine. We used this prototype "Cell Chip" to test, by means of flow cytometry, the immunomodulatory potential of 13 substances and were able to detect changes in cytokine expression in 12 cases (successful for cyclosporine, rapamycin, pentamidine, thalidomide, bis(tri-n-butyltin)oxide, house dust mite allergen (Der p I), 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene, benzocaine, tolylene 2,4-diisocyanate, potassium tetrachloroplatinate, sodium dodecyl sulphate and mercuric chloride; unsuccessful for penicillin G). In conclusion, this approach seems promising for in vitro screening for potential immunotoxicity, especially when additional cell lines besides T-cells are included