A comparison of the beta-geometric model with landmarking for dynamic prediction of time to pregnancy

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Проблема развития финансовой системы Украины в условиях глобализации

Целью исследования является изучение взаимодействия фондовых рынков Восточной Европе на примере нескольких стран.Метою дослідження є вивчення взаємодії фондових ринків Східної Європи на прикладі декількох країн

Південноукраїнські історики та російська академічна еліта: етапи та напрямки співпраці у другій половині ХІХ – на початку XX ст.

У статті на широкій джерельній базі досліджено інфраструктурні та особисті зв’язки між південноукраїнськими істориками та академіками Санкт-Петербурзької (Російської) Академії наук впродовж другої половини ХІХ ст. – 1920-х років.The article, based on a great number of sources, researches the infrastructural and personal contacts between the historians of South Ukraine and academicians of the St.-Petersburg Academy of Sciences throughout the second half of the ХІХ century – 1920-ies

Comparing methods to combine functional loss and mortality in clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Objective: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) clinical trials based on single end points only partially capture the full treatment effect when both function and mortality are affected, and may falsely dismiss efficacious drugs as futile. We aimed to investigate the statistical properties of several strategies for the simultaneous analysis of function and mortality in ALS clinical trials. Methods: Based on the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database, we simulated longitudinal patterns of functional decline, defined by the revised amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale (ALSFRS-R) and conditional survival time. Different treatment scenarios with varying effect sizes were simulated with follow-up ranging from 12 to 18 months. We considered the following analytical strategies: 1) Cox model; 2) linear mixed effects (LME) model; 3) omnibus test based on Cox and LME models; 4) composite time-to-6-point decrease or death; 5) combined assessment of function and survival (CAFS); and 6) test based on joint modeling framework. For each analytical strategy, we calculated the empirical power and sample size. Results: Both Cox and LME models have increased false-negative rates when treatment exclusively affects either function or survival. The joint model has superior power compared to other strategies. The composite end point increases false-negative rates among all treatment scenarios. To detect a 15% reduction in ALSFRS-R decline and 34% decline in hazard with 80% power after 18 months, the Cox model requires 524 patients, the LME model 794 patients, the omnibus test 526 patients, the composite end poi

Cytokine Release in HR-HPV(+) Women without and with Cervical Dysplasia (CIN II and III) or Carcinoma, Compared with HR-HPV(−) Controls

Aims. We investigated the effect of HR-HPV infection on the capacity of the cytokine network in whole blood cultures during carcinogenesis of cervical carcinoma. Methods. Thirty-nine women with moderate dysplasia, severe dysplasia, cervical carcinoma, or without dysplasia formed the study group. The control group consisted of 10 HR-HPV-negative women without CIN. Whole blood cultures were stimulated with phytohemagglutinin (PHA) and concentrations of tumour necrosis factor α (TNFα), interferon γ (IFNγ), interleukin 2 (IL-2), interleukin 12 (IL-12), interleukin 4 (IL-4), and interleukin 10 (IL-10) were determined by ELISAs. Results. A significant increase in cytokine release was detected in HR-HPV-positive women without dysplasia. In women with cervical cancer, release of IFNγ and IL-12 was of the same magnitude as in HR-HPV-positive women without clinical manifestations. Most Th1-type/Th2-type ratios decreased form CIN II to CIN III, and increased from CIN III to invasive carcinoma. Conclusions. (1) Infection with HR-HPV without expression of cervical dysplasia induces activation of the cytokine network. (2) Increases in ratios of Th1-type to Th2-type cytokines at the stage of cervical carcinoma were found by comparison with stage CIN III. (3) Significant changes in the kinetics of cytokine release to a Th2-type immune response in blood of women with cervical dysplasia occurred progressively from CIN II to CIN III

Optimizing intensive care capacity using individual length-of-stay prediction models

Introduction Effective planning of elective surgical procedures requiring postoperative intensive care is important in preventing cancellations and empty intensive care unit (ICU) beds. To improve planning, we constructed, validated and tested three models designed to predict length of stay (LOS) in the ICU in individual patients. Methods Retrospective data were collected from 518 consecutive patients who underwent oesophagectomy with reconstruction for carcinoma between January 1997 and April 2005. Three multivariable linear regression models for LOS, namely preoperative, postoperative and intra-ICU, were constructed using these data. Internal validation was assessed using bootstrap sampling in order to obtain validated estimates of the explained variance (r2). To determine the potential gain of the best performing model in day-to-day clinical practice, prospective data from a second cohort of 65 consecutive patients undergoing oesophagectomy between May 2005 and April 2006 were used in the model, and the predictive performance of the model was compared with prediction based on mean LOS. Results The intra-ICU model had an r2 of 45% after internal validation. Important prognostic variables for LOS included greater patient age, comorbidity, type of surgical approach, intraoperative respiratory minute volume and complications occurring within 72 hours in the ICU. The potential gain of the best model in day-to-day clinical practice was determined relative to mean LOS. Use of the model reduced the deficit number (underestimation) of ICU days by 65 and increased the excess number (overestimation) of ICU days by 23 for the cohort of 65 patients. A conservative analysis conducted in the second, prospective cohort of patients revealed that 7% more oesophagectomies could have been accommodated, and 15% of cancelled procedures could have been prevented. Conclusion Patient characteristics can be used to create models that will help in predicting LOS in the ICU. This will result in more efficient use of ICU beds and fewe

Управление финансовой устойчивостью и рентабельностью предприятия

Целью статьи является изучение значения управления финансовой устойчивостью и рентабельностью предприятия в современных условиях хозяйствования

Individualized ovarian stimulation in IVF/ICSI treatment : it is time to stop using high FSH doses in predicted low responders

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Critical design considerations for time-to-event endpoints in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials

Background: Funding and resources for low prevalent neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are limited, and optimising their use is vital for efficient drug development. In this study, we review the design assumptions for pivotal ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints and provide optimised settings for future trials. Methods: We extracted design settings from 13 completed placebo-controlled trials. Optimal assumptions were estimated using parametric survival models in individual participant data (n=4991). Designs were compared in terms of sample size, trial duration, drug use and costs. Results: Previous trials overestimated the hazard rate by 18.9% (95% CI 3.4% to 34.5%, p=0.021). The median expected HR was 0.56 (range 0.33–0.66). Additionally, we found evidence for an increasing mean hazard rate over time (Weibull shape parameter of 2.03, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.15, p<0.001), which affects the design and planning of future clinical trials. Incorporating accrual time and assuming an increasing hazard rate at the design stage reduced sample size by 33.2% (95% CI 27.9 to 39.4), trial duration by 17.4% (95% CI 11.6 to 23.3), drug use by 14.3% (95% CI 9.6 to 19.0) and follow-up costs by 21.2% (95% CI 15.6 to 26.8). Conclusions: Implementing distributional knowledge and incorporating accrual at the design stage could achieve large gains in the efficiency of ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. We provide an open-source platform that helps investigators to make more accurate sample size calculations and optimise the use of their available resources