Repurposing an integrated national influenza platform for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Ghana: a molecular epidemiological analysis

Background Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for monitoring the spread of COVID-19 and guiding public health decisions, but the capacity for SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing in Africa is low. We integrated SARS-CoV-2 surveillance into an existing influenza surveillance network with the aim of providing insights into SARS-CoV-2 transmission and genomics in Ghana. Methods In this molecular epidemiological analysis, which is part of a wider multifaceted prospective observational study, we collected national SARS-CoV-2 test data from 35 sites across 16 regions in Ghana from Sept 1, 2020, to Nov 30, 2021, via the Ghanaian integrated influenza and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance network. SARS-CoV-2-positive samples collected through this integrated national influenza surveillance network and from international travellers arriving in Accra were sequenced with Oxford Nanopore Technology sequencing and the ARTIC tiled amplicon method. The sequence lineages were typed with pangolin and the phylogenetic analysis was conducted with IQ-Tree2 and TreeTime. Findings During the study period, 5495 samples were submitted for diagnostic testing through the national influenza surveillance network (2121 [46·1%] of 4021 samples with complete demographic data were from female individuals and 2479 [53·9%] of 4021 samples were from male individuals). We also obtained 2289 samples from travellers who arrived in Accra and had a positive lateral flow test, of whom 1626 (71·0%, 95% CI 69·1–72·9) were confirmed to be SARS-CoV-2 positive. Co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in Ghana was detected, with increased cases of influenza in November, 2020, November, 2021, and January and June, 2021. In 4124 samples from individuals with influenza-like illness, SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 583 (14·1%, 95% CI 13·1–15·2) samples and influenza in 356 (8·6%, 7·8–9·5). Conversely, in 476 samples from individuals with of severe acute respiratory illness, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 58 (12·2%, 9·5–15·5) samples and influenza in 95 (19·9%, 16·5–23·9). We detected four waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ghana; each wave was driven by a different variant: B.1 and B.1.1 were the most prevalent lineages in wave 1, alpha (B.1.1.7) was responsible for wave 2, delta (B.1.617.2) and its sublineages (closely related to delta genomes from India) were responsible for wave 3, and omicron variants were responsible for wave 4. We detected omicron variants among 47 (32%) of 145 samples from travellers during the start of the omicron spread in Ghana (wave 4). Interpretation This study shows the value of repurposing existing influenza surveillance platforms to monitor SARS-CoV-2. Influenza continued to circulate in Ghana in 2020 and 2021, and remained a major cause of severe acute respiratory illness. We detected importations of SARS-CoV-2 variants into Ghana, including those that did or did not lead to onward community transmission. Investment in strengthening national influenza surveillance platforms in low-income and middle-income countries has potential for ongoing monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemics. Funding The EDCTP2 programme supported by the EU

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

Background: Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures. Methods: Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment. Results: Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6–24%) (Belgium). Conclusions: We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country’s population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low