58 research outputs found

    Quantitative acoustic differentiation of cryptic species illustrated with King and Clapper rails

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    Reliable species identification is vital for survey and monitoring programs. Recently, the development of digital technology for recording and analyzing vocalizations has assisted in acoustic surveying for cryptic, rare, or elusive species. However, the quantitative tools that exist for species differentiation are still being refined. Using vocalizations recorded in the course of ecological studies of a King Rail (Rallus elegans) and a Clapper Rail (Rallus crepitans) population, we assessed the accuracy and effectiveness of three parametric (logistic regression, discriminant function analysis, quadratic discriminant function analysis) and six nonparametric (support vector machine, CART, Random Forest, k�nearest neighbor, weighted k�nearest neighbor, and neural networks) statistical classification methods for differentiating these species by their kek mating call. We identified 480 kek notes of each species and quantitatively characterized them with five standardized acoustic parameters. Overall, nonparametric classification methods outperformed parametric classification methods for species differentiation (nonparametric tools were between 57% and 81% accurate, parametric tools were between 57% and 60% accurate). Of the nine classification methods, Random Forest was the most accurate and precise, resulting in 81.1% correct classification of kek notes to species. This suggests that the mating calls of these sister species are likely difficult for human observers to tell apart. However, it also implies that appropriate statistical tools may allow reasonable species�level classification accuracy of recorded calls and provide an alternative to species classification where other capture� or genotype�based survey techniques are not possible

    Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model

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    We constructed a decision-analytic and cost-minimization model to compare monthly maternal serological screening for congenital toxoplasmosis, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. We use sensitivity analysis to evaluate robustness of results. We find that universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French (Paris) protocol, leads to savings of 620perchildscreened.Resultsarerobusttochangesintestcosts,valueofstatisticallife,seroprevalenceinwomenofchildbearingage,fetallossduetoamniocentesis,incidenceofprimaryT.gondiiinfectionduringpregnancy,andtobivariateanalysisoftestcostsandincidenceofprimaryT.gondiiinfection.Giventheparametersinthismodelandamaternalscreeningtestcostof620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, incidence of primary T. gondii infection during pregnancy, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of 12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities
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