CHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models

The new CHEM2D-Ozone Photochemistry Parameterization (CHEM2D-OPP) for high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and climate models specifies the net ozone photochemical tendency and its sensitivity to changes in ozone mixing ratio, temperature and overhead ozone column based on calculations from the CHEM2D interactive middle atmospheric photochemical transport model. We evaluate CHEM2D-OPP performance using both short-term (6-day) and long-term (1-year) stratospheric ozone simulations with the prototype high-altitude NOGAPS-ALPHA forecast model. An inter-comparison of NOGAPS-ALPHA 6-day ozone hindcasts for 7 February 2005 with ozone photochemistry parameterizations currently used in operational NWP systems shows that CHEM2D-OPP yields the best overall agreement with both individual Aura Microwave Limb Sounder ozone profile measurements and independent hemispheric (10°–90° N) ozone analysis fields. A 1-year free-running NOGAPS-ALPHA simulation using CHEM2D-OPP produces a realistic seasonal cycle in zonal mean ozone throughout the stratosphere. We find that the combination of a model cold temperature bias at high latitudes in winter and a warm bias in the CHEM2D-OPP temperature climatology can degrade the performance of the linearized ozone photochemistry parameterization over seasonal time scales despite the fact that the parameterized temperature dependence is weak in these regions

Preliminary development and validation of a new endof-life patient-reported outcome measure assessing the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life

Introduction:The ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life is an often neglected aspect of quality of life (QOL) measurement in palliative care effectiveness research despite compelling evidence of the high value patients place on this domain. Objective: This paper describes the preliminary development and evaluation of a new, single-item, end-of-life patientreported outcome measure (EOLPRO) designed to capture changes in the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life. Methods: Cognitive interviews with purposively sampled Australian palliative care patients (N = 9) were analysed thematically to explore content validity. Simultaneously, secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial comparing ketamine and placebo for the management of cancer pain (N = 185) evaluated: construct validity; test-retest reliability; and responsiveness. Results:Preliminary findings suggest patients interpret the new measure consistently. The EOLPRO captures the ability to complete physical tasks and finalise practical matters although it is unclear whether emotional tasks or resolution of relationship issues are considered. Personal and financial affairs should be separated to allow for differences in ability for these two types of affairs. The significant correlation between performance status and EOLPRO scores (r = 0.41, p,<.01, n = 137) and expected relationships between EOLPRO and proximity to death and constipation demonstrated construct validity. Pre-and post-treatment EOLPRO scores moderately agreed (n = 14, k = 0.52 [95% CI 0.19, 0.84]) supporting reliability. The measure's apparent lack of sensitivity to discriminate between treatment responders and non-responders may be confounded. Conclusion:Based on the preliminary findings, the EOLPRO should be separated into 'personal' and 'financial' affairs with further testing suggested, particularly to verify coverage and responsiveness. Initial evaluation suggests that the single-item EOLPRO is a useful addition to QOL outcome measurement in palliative care effectiveness research because common palliative care specific QOL questionnaires do not include or explicitly capture this domain. © 2014 McCaffrey et al

Effects of model chemistry and data biases on stratospheric ozone assimilation

The innovations or observation minus forecast (O&amp;ndash;F) residuals produced by a data assimilation system provide a convenient metric of evaluating global analyses. In this study, O&amp;ndash;F statistics from the Global Ozone Assimilation Testing System (GOATS) are used to examine how ozone assimilation products and their associated O&amp;ndash;F statistics depend on input data biases and ozone photochemistry parameterizations (OPP). All the GOATS results shown are based on a 6-h forecast and analysis cycle using observations from SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument-2) during September&amp;ndash;October 2002. Results show that zonal mean ozone analyses are more independent of observation biases and drifts when using an OPP, while the mean ozone O&amp;ndash;Fs are more sensitive to observation drifts when using an OPP. In addition, SD O&amp;ndash;Fs (standard deviations) are reduced in the upper stratosphere when using an OPP due to a reduction of forecast model noise and to increased covariance between the forecast model and the observations. Experiments that changed the OPP reference state to match the observations by using an &quot;adaptive&quot; OPP scheme reduced the mean ozone O&amp;ndash;Fs at the expense of zonal mean ozone analyses being more susceptible to data biases and drifts. Additional experiments showed that the upper boundary of the ozone DAS can affect the quality of the ozone analysis and therefore should be placed well above (at least a scale height) the region of interest

Multi-Layer Evolution of Acoustic-Gravity Waves and Ionospheric Disturbances Over the United States After the 2022 Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption

e Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha\u27apai volcano underwent a series of large-magnitude eruptions that generated in the atmosphere. We investigate the spatial and temporal evolutions of fluctuations driven by atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) and, in particular, the Lamb wave modes in high spatial resolution data sets measured over the Continental United States (CONUS), complemented with data over the Americas and the Pacific. Along with \u3e800 barometer sites, tropospheric observations, and Total Electron Content data from \u3e3,000 receivers, we report detections of volcano-induced AGWs in mesopause and ionosphere-thermosphere airglow imagery and Fabry-Perot interferometry. We also report unique AGW signatures in the ionospheric D-region, measured using Long-Range Navigation pulsed low-frequency transmitter signals. Although we observed fluctuations over a wide range of periods and speeds, we identify Lamb wave modes exhibiting 295–345 m s−1 phase front velocities with correlated spatial variability of their amplitudes from the Earth\u27s surface to the ionosphere. Results suggest that the Lamb wave modes, tracked by our ray-tracing modeling results, were accompanied by deep fluctuation fields coupled throughout the atmosphere, and were all largely consistent in arrival times with the sequence of eruptions over 8 hr. The ray results also highlight the importance of winds in reducing wave amplitudes at CONUS midlatitudes. The ability to identify and interpret Lamb wave modes and accompanying fluctuations on the basis of arrival times and speeds, despite complexity in their spectra and modulations by the inhomogeneous here, suggests opportunities for analysis and modeling to understand their signals to constrain features of azardous events

Novel alleles for combined drought and heat stress tolerance in wheat

Drought and heat waves commonly co-occur in many wheat-growing regions causing significant crop losses. The identification of stress associated quantitative trait loci, particularly those for yield, is problematic due to their association with plant phenology and the high genetic × environment interaction. Here we studied a panel of 315 diverse, spring type accessions of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) in pots in a semi-controlled environment under combined drought and heat stress over 2 years. Importantly, we treated individual plants according to their flowering time. We found 134 out of the 145 identified loci for grain weight that were not associated with either plant phenology or plant height. The majority of loci uncovered here were novel, with favorable alleles widespread in Asian and African landraces providing opportunities for their incorporation into modern varieties through breeding. Using residual heterozygosity in lines from a nested association mapping population, we were able to rapidly develop near-isogenic lines for important target loci. One target locus on chromosome 6A contributed to higher grain weight, harvest index, thousand kernel weight, and grain number under drought and heat stress in field conditions consistent with allelic effects demonstrated in the genome-wide association study.Jessica Schmidt, Penny J. Tricker, Paul Eckermann, Priyanka Kalambettu, Melissa Garcia and Delphine Fleur

Large-amplitude mesospheric response to an orographic wave generated over the Southern Ocean Auckland Islands (50.7°S) during the DEEPWAVE project

The Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) project was conducted over New Zealand and the surrounding regions during June and July 2014, to more fully understand the generation, propagation, and effects of atmospheric gravity waves. A large suite of instruments collected data from the ground to the upper atmosphere (~100 km), with several new remote-sensing instruments operating on board the NSF Gulfstream V (GV) research aircraft, which was the central measurement platform of the project. On 14 July, during one of the research flights (research flight 23), a spectacular event was observed as the GV flew in the lee of the sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands (50.7°S). An apparent ship wave pattern was imaged in the OH layer (at ~83.5 km) by the Utah State University Advanced Mesospheric Temperature Mapper and evolved significantly over four successive passes spanning more than 4 h. The waves were associated with orographic forcing generated by relatively strong (15-20 m/s) near-surface wind flowing over the rugged island topography. The mountain wave had an amplitude T_ ~ 10 K, a dominant horizontal wavelength ~40 km, achieved a momentum flux exceeding 300 m2 s-2, and eventually exhibited instability and breaking at the OH altitude. This case of deep mountain wave propagation demonstrates the potential for strong responses in the mesosphere arising from a small source under suitable propagation conditions and suggests that such cases may be more common than previously believed. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model

International audienceThe forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February, 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data

Imaging gravity waves in lower stratospheric AMSU-A radiances, Part 2: Validation case study

Two-dimensional radiance maps from Channel 9 (~60&ndash;90 hPa) of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A), acquired over southern Scandinavia on 14 January 2003, show plane-wave-like oscillations with a wavelength &lambda;_<i>h</i> of ~400&ndash;500 km and peak brightness temperature amplitudes of up to 0.9 K. The wave-like pattern is observed in AMSU-A radiances from 8 overpasses of this region by 4 different satellites, revealing a growth in the disturbance amplitude from 00:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC and a change in its horizontal structure between 12:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC. Forecast and hindcast runs for 14 January 2003 using high-resolution global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models generate a lower stratospheric mountain wave over southern Scandinavia with peak 90 hPa temperature amplitudes of ~5&ndash;7 K at 12:00 UTC and a similar horizontal wavelength, packet width, phase structure and time evolution to the disturbance observed in AMSU-A radiances. The wave&apos;s vertical wavelength is ~12 km. These NWP fields are validated against radiosonde wind and temperature profiles and airborne lidar profiles of temperature and aerosol backscatter ratios acquired from the NASA DC-8 during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). Both the amplitude and phase of the stratospheric mountain wave in the various NWP fields agree well with localized perturbation features in these suborbital measurements. In particular, we show that this wave formed the type II polar stratospheric clouds measured by the DC-8 lidar. To compare directly with the AMSU-A data, we convert these validated NWP temperature fields into swath-scanned brightness temperatures using three-dimensional Channel 9 weighting functions and the actual AMSU-A scan patterns from each of the 8 overpasses of this region. These NWP-based brightness temperatures contain two-dimensional oscillations due to this resolved stratospheric mountain wave that have an amplitude, wavelength, horizontal structure and time evolution that closely match those observed in the AMSU-A data. These comparisons not only verify gravity wave detection and horizontal imaging capabilities for AMSU-A Channel 9, but provide an absolute validation of the anticipated radiance signals for a given three-dimensional gravity wave, based on the modeling of Eckermann and Wu (2006)

NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign

This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O₃ simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O₃ with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11-16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17-22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O₃ simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O₃ initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O₃ forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O₃ on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O₃ forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O₃ fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O₃ is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O₃ analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O₃ fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O₃ forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O₃ forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1-5 days. Overall, these results show that the new O₃ initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable short-range stratospheric O₃ forecasts during Arctic winter