Escuela de Chicago: La ecuación de intercambio monetarista y el supuesto de neutralidad del dinero

Este artículo tiene como objetivo fundamental analizar algunas de las contribuciones más importantes de la escuela de Chicago. Nos centramos sobre todo en la teoría cuantitativa del dinero que relaciona la oferta monetaria con el nivel general de precios. El supuesto implícito en esta teoría es que el dinero es neutral y que, por tanto, la política monetaria no tiene efectos a largo plazo sobre el desempleo y la estructura productiva. El artículo pretende demostrar que este supuesto no es cierto y que la inyección monetaria siempre tiene efectos sobre la estructura de la producción, tanto a corto como a largo plazo. Analizaremos los aportes de los teóricos más importantes de la escuela de Chicago (Frank Knight, Milton Friedman, etc) en temas macroeconómicos y veremos las principales diferencias de esta escuela con la escuela austríaca y la Nueva macroeconomía clásica de Robert Lucas. Finalmente se estudiará la interpretación de los economistas de Chicago y de la escuela austríaca sobre la gran depresión de 1929. Palabras Clave: Expansión crediticia, Apriorístico-deductivo, Ideas positivista

Entorno económico-financiero para la Real Federación Española de Atletismo tras el COVID19

The purpose of this paper is to show a forecast of the economic-financial environment for the Royal Spanish Athletics Federation (RFEA) after COVID19 based on the Austrian Economics approach. To do so, we achieve several economic-financial scenarios using a forecast of RFEA revenues with the AAA version of the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) algorithm and interpret the results based on the Austrian Economics approach with information on the Spanish economic situation and the budget of the National Sports Council (CSD) as the main source of funding. The results show that, although national federations, such as the RFEA, have sufficient net worth to absorb the negative results and responsible behavior is not rewarded in these public or semi-public bodies, the CSD should try to adapt its expenditures to the new level of expected income to avoid major financial problems in the future. The result of the work can serve as a starting point for a reflection on the future of the RFEA and any other Sports Federation.El propósito de este trabajo es mostrar una previsión del entorno económico-financiero para la Real Federación Española de Atletismo (RFEA) después del COVID19 basados en el enfoque de la Economía Austriaca. Para ello, llegamos a distintos escenarios utilizando una previsión de los ingresos de la RFEA con la versión AAA del algoritmo Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) e interpretamos los resultados basándonos en el enfoque de la Economía Austriaca con información sobre la situación económica española y el presupuesto del Consejo Superior de Deportes (CSD) como principal fuente de financiación. Los resultados muestran que, aunque las federaciones nacionales, como la RFEA, tengan un patrimonio neto suficiente para absorber los resultados negativos y el comportamiento responsable no se premia en esos organismos públicos o semipúblicos, el CSD debería intentar adaptar sus gastos al nuevo nivel de ingresos previstos para evitar problemas financieros mayores en el futuro. El resultado del trabajo puede servir como punto de partida para una reflexión sobre el futuro de la RFEA y de cualquier otra Federación Deportiva

Central Banks’ Monetary Policy in the Face of the COVID-19 Economic Crisis: Monetary Stimulus and the Emergence of CBDCs

This article analyzes the monetary policy of major central banks during the economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Rising public debt in many countries is being financed through asset purchases by monetary authorities. Although these stimulus policies predate the pandemic, they have been significantly boosted as many governments face large financing needs. We have been in a low interest rate environment for years and some governments have issued debt securities at negative rates. In addition, the rise of decentralized cryptocurrencies, based on blockchain technology, has created greater competition in the international monetary system and many governments have considered the creation of centralized virtual currencies, known as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). We will analyze some relevant cases, with an emphasis on the digital euro project. The methodology is based on the analysis of the evolution of monetary variables. Pearson’s correlation will be used to establish some relationships between them. There is a strong similarity in the expansionary monetary policies of central banks. Although the growth of the money supply has not been passed on to the CPI, it has been passed on to the financial markets and the price of assets such as Bitcoin or gold

Escuela de Chicago: La ecuación de intercambio monetarista y el supuesto de neutralidad del dinero

Este artículo tiene como objetivo fundamental analizar algunas de las contribuciones más importantes de la escuela de Chicago. Nos centramos sobre todo en la teoría cuantitativa del dinero que relaciona la oferta monetaria con el nivel general de precios. El supuesto implícito en esta teoría es que el dinero es neutral y que, por tanto, la política monetaria no tiene efectos a largo plazo sobre el desempleo y la estructura productiva. El artículo pretende demostrar que este supuesto no es cierto y que la inyección monetaria siempre tiene efectos sobre la estructura de la producción, tanto a corto como a largo plazo. Analizaremos los aportes de los teóricos más importantes de la escuela de Chicago (Frank Knight, Milton Friedman, etc) en temas macroeconómicos y veremos las principales diferencias de esta escuela con la escuela austríaca y la Nueva macroeconomía clásica de Robert Lucas. Finalmente se estudiará la interpretación de los economistas de Chicago y de la escuela austríaca sobre la gran depresión de 1929. Palabras Clave: Expansión crediticia, Apriorístico-deductivo, Ideas positivistasThis article aims to analyze some of the most important contributions of the Chicago school. We focus on everything in the quantity theory of money that relates the money supply with the general level of prices. The implicit assumption in this theory is that money is neutral and that, therefore, monetary policy has no long-term effects on unemployment and the productive structure. The article seeks to demonstrate that this assumption is not true and that the monetary injection always has effects on the structure of production, both in the short and long term. We will analyze the contributions of the most important theoretical of the Chicago school (Frank Knight , Milton Friedman, entre otros) in macroeconomic issues and we will see the main differences in this school with the Austrian school and the new classical macroeconomics of Robert Lucas. The interpretation of Chicago economists and of the Austrian school on the great depression of 1929 will be lastly analyzed

Análisis de los efectos de la dolarización espontánea y oficial en hispanoamérica: la perspectiva keynesiana y liberal del sistema monetario.

Abstract Introduction: this article analyzes the process of dollarization in Hispanic America from different economic perspectives. Dollarization refers to the adoption of a foreign currency as legal tender and is linked to the loss of value of national currencies. The concept and the different types of dollarization will be established, paying special attention to the cases of official dollarization such as that of Ecuador and El Salvador and to the banking system of Panama that is characterized by its financial integration and the absence of a central bank. Objective: to analyze the effects on interest rates, inflation, trade balance and other macroeconomic variables in different countries of the region. Materials and Methods: primary sources are therefore used and economic data are interpreted based on the theories presented. Results: In the case of Ecuador, dollarization contributed to overcoming the 1999 financial crisis by providing the period of greatest monetary stability in its history. Conclusions: Keynesian economists or those who propose the intervention of central banks in the design of monetary policy pose another analysis of the process.Resumo Introdução: este artigo analisa o processo de dolarização na América hispânica a partir de diferentes perspectivas econômicas. A dolarização se refere à adoção de uma moeda estrangeira como moeda legal e está vinculada à perda de valor das moedas nacionais. o conceito é estabelecida e os diferentes tipos de dolarização com especial atenção para os casos de dolarização oficial do Equador como em El Salvador e Panamá sistema bancário caracterizada pela integração financeira ea ausência de banco central. Objetivo: analisar os efeitos sobre as taxas de juros, inflação, balança comercial e outras variáveis macroeconômicas em diferentes países da região. Materiais e Métodos: as fontes primárias são utilizadas e os dados econômicos são interpretados com base nas teorias apresentadas. Resultados: No caso do Equador, a dolarização contribuiu para superar a crise financeira de 1999, proporcionando o período de maior estabilidade monetária em sua história. Conclusão: Economistas keynesianos ou aqueles que propõem a intervenção dos bancos centrais no desenho da política monetária colocam outra análise do processo.Resumen Introducción: en este artículo se analiza el proceso de dolarización en Hispanoamérica desde distintas perspectivas económicas. La dolarización hace referencia a la adopción de una moneda extranjera como moneda de curso legal y está vinculada a la pérdida de valor de las monedas nacionales. Se establecerá el concepto y los distintos tipos de dolarización prestando especial atención a los casos de dolarización oficial como el de Ecuador y El Salvador y al sistema bancario de Panamá que se caracteriza por su integración financiera y la ausencia de banco central. Objetivo: analizar los efectos sobre las tasas de interés, la inflación, la balanza comercial y otras variables macroeconómicas en diferentes países de la región. Materiales y Métodos: se utilizan por tanto fuentes primarias y se interpretan los datos económicos en base a las teorías expuestas. Resultados: En el caso de Ecuador, la dolarización contribuyó a superar la crisis financiera de 1999 proporcionando el periodo de mayor estabilidad monetaria de su historia. Conclusiones: los economistas keynesianos o que proponen la intervención de los bancos centrales en el diseño de la política monetaria plantean otro análisis del proceso

Un análisis de la crisis económica de Venezuela desde los postulados de la Escuela Austríaca de Economía

Abstract Introduction: This article analyzes the economic crisis of Venezuela from the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics, which provides an analytical tool of great value to understand the consequences of fiscal and monetary interventionism and has long posed the impossibility of organizing Centralized way the economy. The current situation in Venezuela makes it necessary to study the causes that have generated the deep political, economic and social crisis, which will analyze the productive structure, monetary policy, the setting of maximum prices, exchange control and external indebtedness. Objective: Explain the effects of the economic policy that the successive governments of Venezuela have developed to detect the causes of the current economic crisis and propose reform proposals that allow the situation to be reversed as much as possible. Materials and methods: It is based on the study of primary sources such as the macroeconomic information of different research centers and the analysis of the most relevant academic articles and books. Results: Real socialism collapsed in Eastern Europe and Asia due to the lack of productivity of the system and the Austrian School of Economics warned in the interwar years of the unsustainability of this model from a theoretical perspective. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that the Socialism of the 21st century, of which Venezuela is the maximum exponent, walks in the same direction and that the free market is the only way to economic prosperity.Resumo Introdução: Este artigo descreve a crise econômica na Venezuela é analisado do ponto de vista da Escola Austríaca de Economia, que fornece ferramentas analíticas de grande valor para compreender as consequências de intervencionismo fiscal e monetária e há muito tempo levantou a incapacidade de organizar Forma centralizada da economia. A situação atual na Venezuela torna necessário estudar as causas que geraram a profunda crise política, econômica e social, que analisaram a estrutura produtiva, a política monetária, a fixação de preços máximos, o controle cambial e o endividamento externo. Objetivo: Explique os efeitos da política econômica que os sucessivos governos da Venezuela desenvolveram para detectar as causas da atual crise econômica e propor propostas de reforma que permitam que a situação seja revertida o máximo possível. Materiais e métodos: Baseia-se no estudo de fontes primárias, como a informação macroeconômica de diferentes centros de pesquisa e a análise dos artigos acadêmicos e livros mais relevantes. Resultados: O real socialismo entrou em colapso na Europa Oriental e Ásia devido à falta de produtividade do sistema e a Escola Austríaca de Economia alertou nos anos entre guerras da insustentabilidade deste modelo de uma perspectiva teórica. Conclusões: Nossa análise mostra que o socialismo do século XXI, do qual a Venezuela é o maior expoente, anda na mesma direção e que o livre mercado é o único caminho para a prosperidade econômica.Resumen Introducción: En este artículo se analiza la crisis económica de Venezuela desde la perspectiva de la Escuela Austríaca de Economía, la cual proporciona un instrumental analítico de gran valor para comprender las consecuencias del intervencionismo fiscal y monetario y desde hace tiempo ha planteado la imposibilidad de organizar de forma centralizada la economía. La situación actual de Venezuela hace necesario un estudio de las causas que han generado la profunda crisis política, económica y social por lo que se analizará la estructura productiva, la política monetaria, la fijación de precios máximos, el control de cambios y el endeudamiento externo. Objetivo: Explicar los efectos de la política económica que los sucesivos gobiernos de Venezuela han desarrollado para detectar las causas de la actual crisis económica y plantear propuestas de reforma que permitan revertir la situación en la medida de lo posible. Materiales y métodos: Se basa en el estudio de fuentes primarias como son la información macroeconómica de distintos centros de investigación y el análisis de los artículos y libros académicos más relevantes. Resultados: El socialismo real se desmoronó en Europa del este y Asia debido a la falta de productividad del sistema y la Escuela Austríaca de Economía advirtió en los años de entreguerra de la insostenibilidad de este modelo desde una perspectiva teórica. Conclusiones: Nuestro análisis muestra que el Socialismo del siglo XXI, del cual Venezuela es el máximo exponente, camina en la misma dirección y que el libre mercado es el único camino hacia la prosperidad económica

From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Risk of Expansionary Monetary Policies

Central banks have been pursuing an expansionary monetary policy since before the pandemic, although the health and economic crisis of COVID-19 has boosted asset purchase programmes. After the Great Recession, a new phase began, characterised by low interest rates and liquidity injections. These policies spilled over into financial markets and are leading to higher inflation. These policies stabilised the situation in the short term, but if they continue indefinitely there is a risk of debt overhang, investment mistakes and high inflation in the future. The aim of this article is to analyse monetary policy developments from the Great Recession to the COVID-19 crisis. Correlations between different macroeconomic variables will be shown through IBM SPSS Statistics. For this purpose, bi-variate correlations were used. For the predictions and confidence of the model data, Tableau Desktop Edition was used, which in turn was used for the generation of the graphs. There is a strong correlation between the growth of monetary aggregates and public debt and stock market capitalisation for the selected indicators. The main contribution of this research is the analysis of the long-term effects of a monetary policy

Cryptocurrencies and Fraudulent Transactions: Risks, Practices, and Legislation for Their Prevention in Europe and Spain

Cryptocurrencies have been developing very rapidly in recent years, and their use is becoming more and more widespread in different areas. The use of digital currencies for legal uses is advancing along with technological development, but, at the same time, criminal activities are also emerging to take advantage of this boom. The aim of this paper has been, first, to analyze the various ways in which individuals and criminal organizations have taken advantage of the phenomenon of cryptocurrencies to carry out fraudulent activities such as laundering money of illicit origin and, second, to provide an overview of the legal tools that have been developed in this regard in Europe and, more specifically, in Spain to combat these activities. Undoubtedly, cryptocurrencies bring great benefits to the economy, but it is also necessary to know the risks and abuses that have been developed to prevent them

Financial Exclusion in Rural and Urban Contexts in Poland: A Threat to Achieving SDG Eight?

Financial inclusion, which consists of having a financial system that is easily accessible to citizens, is identified by various international organizations such as the new UN Agenda 2030, as a priority objective. This objective is particularly relevant in rural areas, where access to these services is more difficult, as citizens have to travel several kilometers to access them. In this study, we analyze the current situation of the Polish financial sector in terms of its accessibility, in order to measure the degree of financial inclusion. For this purpose, we use three combined methodologies. Initially, a data extraction from the Central Bank of Poland was carried out. Subsequently, three methodologies are applied to calculate financial inclusion. First, we apply the criteria of the Financial Access Survey (FAS) of the International Monetary Fund. Secondly, the Access to Cash Index (ACI) methodology by calculating a score that describes the access to banking services according to certain items. Finally, we applied the nearest neighbor methodology to detect in each voivodship those points where it is most difficult (measured in km distance) to access banking services. Some areas, especially in rural areas of the different voivodeships, present certain problems when it comes to accessing banking services. Therefore, the fulfillment of SDG 8.10 will be more difficult to achieve in these areas. The public authorities must pay attention to this, in order to reach the commitments acquired with the 2030 agenda, in terms of financial inclusion