A new marine ecosystem model for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

Earth System Climate Models (ESCMs) are valuable tools that can be used to gain a better understanding of the climate system, global biogeochemical cycles and how anthropogenically-driven changes may affect them. Here we describe improvements made to the marine biogeochemical ecosystem component of the University of Victoria's ESCM (version 2.9). Major changes include corrections to the code and equations describing phytoplankton light limitation and zooplankton grazing, the implementation of a more realistic zooplankton growth and grazing model, and the implementation of an iron limitation scheme to constrain phytoplankton growth. The new model is evaluated after a 10 000-yr spin-up and compared to both the previous version and observations. For the majority of biogeochemical tracers and ecosystem processes the new model shows significant improvements when compared to the previous version and evaluated against observations. Many of the improvements are due to better simulation of seasonal changes in higher latitude ecosystems and the effect that this has on ocean biogeochemistry. This improved model is intended to provide a basic new ESCM model component, which can be used as is or expanded upon (i.e., the addition of new tracers), for climate change and biogeochemical cycling research

Alternative health care consultations in Ontario, Canada: A geographic and socio-demographic analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An important but understudied component of Canada's health system is alternative care. The objective of this paper is to examine the geographic and socio-demographic characteristics of alternative care consultation in Ontario, Canada's largest province.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data is drawn from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS Cycle 3.1, 2005) for people aged 18 or over (n = 32,598) who had a consultation with an alternative health care provider. Four groups of consultations are examined: (1) all consultations (2) massage therapy (3) acupuncture, and (4) homeopath/naturopath. Descriptive statistics, mapping and logistic regression modeling are employed to analyze the data and to compare modalities of alternative health care use.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2005, more than 1.2 million adults aged 18 or over consulted an alternative health care provider, representing about 13% of the total population of Ontario. The analysis revealed a varied geographic pattern of consultations across the province. Consultations were fairly even across the urban to rural continuum and rural residents were just as likely to consult a provider as their urban counterparts. From a health perspective, people with a chronic condition, lower health status and self-perceived unmet health care needs were more likely to see an alternative health provider. Women with chronic conditions such as fibromyalgia, high blood pressure, chronic fatigue syndrome and chemical sensitivities were more likely to see an alternative provider if they felt their health care needs were not being met.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis revealed that geography is not a factor in determining alternative health care consultations in Ontario. By contrast, there is a strong association between these consultations and socio-demographic characteristics particularly age, sex, education, health and self-perceived unmet health care needs. The results underscore the importance of women's health needs as related to alternative care use. The paper concludes that there is a need for more place-specific research that explores the reasons why people use specific types of alternative health care as tied to socio-economic status, health, place of residence, and knowledge of these treatments.</p

The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing

The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately constant on centennial time scales. The mechanisms behind this constancy are not well understood, but previous studies suggest that compensating effects of ocean heat and carbon fluxes, which are governed by the same ocean mixing processes, could be one cause for this approximate constancy. This hypothesis is investigated by forcing different versions of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, which differ in the ocean mixing parameterization, with an idealized scenario of 1% annually increasing atmospheric CO2 until quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and constant concentration thereafter. The relationship between surface air warming and cumulative emissions remains close to linear, but the TCRE varies between model versions, spanning the range of 1.2°–2.1°C EgC−1 at the time of CO2 doubling. For all model versions, the TCRE is not constant over time while atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. It is constant after atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at 1120 ppm, because of compensating changes in temperature sensitivity (temperature change per unit radiative forcing) and cumulative airborne fraction. The TCRE remains approximately constant over time even if temperature sensitivity, determined by ocean heat flux, and cumulative airborne fraction, determined by ocean carbon flux, are taken from different model versions with different ocean mixing settings. This can partially be explained with temperature sensitivity and cumulative airborne fraction following similar trajectories, which suggests ocean heat and carbon fluxes scale approximately linearly with changes in vertical mixing

Hyperbolastic modeling of tumor growth with a combined treatment of iodoacetate and dimethylsulphoxide

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An understanding of growth dynamics of tumors is important in understanding progression of cancer and designing appropriate treatment strategies. We perform a comparative study of the hyperbolastic growth models with the Weibull and Gompertz models, which are prevalently used in the field of tumor growth.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The hyperbolastic growth models H1, H2, and H3 are applied to growth of solid Ehrlich carcinoma under several different treatments. These are compared with results from Gompertz and Weibull models for the combined treatment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The growth dynamics of the solid Ehrlich carcinoma with the combined treatment are studied using models H1, H2, and H3, and the models are highly accurate in representing the growth. The growth dynamics are also compared with the untreated tumor, the tumor treated with only iodoacetate, and the tumor treated with only dimethylsulfoxide, and the combined treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The hyperbolastic models prove to be effective in representing and analyzing the growth dynamics of the solid Ehrlich carcinoma. These models are more precise than Gompertz and Weibull and show less error for this data set. The precision of H3 allows for its use in a comparative analysis of tumor growth rates between the various treatments.</p

Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles

The story of Aliko and Ambai: cinema and social change in Papua New Guinea

This exegesis evaluates the practice-led research process and the production of a feature film, Aliko &amp;amp; Ambai, with a local creative team and crew in collaboration with communities in the Eastern Highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Working with the Centre for Social and Creative Media at the University of Goroka, I responded to specific communication for development (C4D) funding requirements by focusing on creating meaningful and culturally relevant content, establishing egalitarian methods of participation when engaging participants, and exploring structural support for all phases of production. The project created training workshops, used participant-observation during the production process, and conducted small group feedback sessions and individual surveys and interviews with the cast and crew. The film is a collaborative research output that provides the visual moving-image context for the discussion that is explored in the exegesis. The primary argument of this exegesis is that best practices in media, communication, and development emerge out of the local context, and understanding the role of the facilitator, creative collaborators, and local communities is crucial to this context. The role of the facilitator is to create structures that will encourage collective, peer-based learning and to provide a bridge between the expectations of external stakeholders and the creative aspirations, cultural expectations, and contributions of participants. In addition to developing the content for the film, our local creative team facilitated cooperation with their indigenous communities during the production process. These communities, representative of similar communities throughout PNG, are also the target audience for the film. This exegesis engages questions about how social change is currently being navigated in developing regions like Melanesia and how a creative media practice can contribute to that knowledge, by analysing the creation of narratives, exploration of social anxieties, improvement of skills, strengthening of identity, and creation of support structures that emerged from the film production process. There is evidence that ongoing media production projects in PNG have the potential to generate content that promotes a fuller and more creative expression of local entertainment while engaging with social change issues. However, this requires ongoing development of capacity with youth and indigenous community participation and this project provides insight into how to develop and support a local Melanesian narrative feature film production practice

Transportation in Michigan: older adults and caregivers

Michigan Department of Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90963/1/102858.pd

Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout \u3ci\u3eSalvelinus confluentus\u3c/i\u3e in a Rocky Mountain Watersehd, U.S.A.

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments

Prospectus, August 20, 2001

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_2001/1019/thumbnail.jp

Clinical and multiple gene expression variables in survival analysis of breast cancer: Analysis with the hypertabastic survival model

BACKGROUND: We explore the benefits of applying a new proportional hazard model to analyze survival of breast cancer patients. As a parametric model, the hypertabastic survival model offers a closer fit to experimental data than Cox regression, and furthermore provides explicit survival and hazard functions which can be used as additional tools in the survival analysis. In addition, one of our main concerns is utilization of multiple gene expression variables. Our analysis treats the important issue of interaction of different gene signatures in the survival analysis. METHODS: The hypertabastic proportional hazards model was applied in survival analysis of breast cancer patients. This model was compared, using statistical measures of goodness of fit, with models based on the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model and the parametric log-logistic and Weibull models. The explicit functions for hazard and survival were then used to analyze the dynamic behavior of hazard and survival functions. RESULTS: The hypertabastic model provided the best fit among all the models considered. Use of multiple gene expression variables also provided a considerable improvement in the goodness of fit of the model, as compared to use of only one. By utilizing the explicit survival and hazard functions provided by the model, we were able to determine the magnitude of the maximum rate of increase in hazard, and the maximum rate of decrease in survival, as well as the times when these occurred. We explore the influence of each gene expression variable on these extrema. Furthermore, in the cases of continuous gene expression variables, represented by a measure of correlation, we were able to investigate the dynamics with respect to changes in gene expression. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that use of three different gene signatures in the model provided a greater combined effect and allowed us to assess the relative importance of each in determination of outcome in this data set. These results point to the potential to combine gene signatures to a greater effect in cases where each gene signature represents some distinct aspect of the cancer biology. Furthermore we conclude that the hypertabastic survival models can be an effective survival analysis tool for breast cancer patients