Modelling the Volatility of GHC_USD Exchange Rate Using Garch Model

Modelling and forecasting the exchange rate volatility is a crucial area, as it has implications for many issues in the arena of finance and economics.  Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with their modifications, is used in capturing the volatility of the exchange rates. Simple rate of returns is employed to model the currency exchange rate volatility of Ghana Cedi-United States Dollar. The daily closing exchange rates were used as the daily observations.  The parameters of these models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The results indicate that the volatility of the GHC_USD exchange rate is persistent. The asymmetry terms for TARCH are not statistically significant. Also in TARCH case, the coefficient estimate is negative, suggesting that positive shocks imply a higher next period conditional variance than negative shocks of the same sign. This is the opposite to what would have been expected in the case of the application of a GARCH model to a set of stock returns. But arguably, neither the leverage effect or volatility feedback explanations for asymmetries in the context of stocks apply here. Keywords: Exchange rate, volatility, GARCH mode

Intimate partner violence against married and cohabiting women in sub-Saharan Africa: does sexual autonomy matter?

Background: Literature shows that women’s sexual autonomy, which refers to women’s capacity to refuse sex and ask a partner to use condom, has significant implications on the sexual and reproductive health outcomes and sexual-and-gender based violence. Nevertheless, there is scarcity of empirical evidence to support the association between women’s sexual autonomy and intimate partner violence (IPV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Data for the study were extracted from the recent Demographic and Health Surveys in 24 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2010 and 2019. Bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between sexual autonomy and IPV in all the studied countries. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: The pooled prevalence of IPV and sexual autonomy in the 24 countries were 38.5% and 73.0% respectively. Overall, the odds of exposure to IPV were higher among women with sexual autonomy, compared to those without sexual autonomy even after controlling for covariates (age, level of education, marital status, current working status, place of residence, wealth quintile and media exposure). At the country-level, women from Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, Cote d’lvoire, Gambia, Mali, Nigeria, Kenya, Comoros, Zambia, and South Africa who had sexual autonomy were more likely to experience IPV whilst those in Burundi were less likely to experience IPV. The study showed that sexual autonomy increases women’s exposure to IPV and this occurred in many countries except Burundi where women with sexual autonomy were less likely to experience IPV. Conclusion: The findings highlight the need for serious programs and policies to fight against IPV in the sub-region. Additionally, laws need to be passed and implemented, with law enforcement agencies provided with the necessary resources to reduce intimate partner violence among women with sexual autonomy

An outbreak of pneumococcal meningitis among older children (≥5 years) and adults after the implementation of an infant vaccination programme with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of pneumococcal meningitis among non-infant children and adults occurred in the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana between December 2015 and April 2016 despite the recent nationwide implementation of a vaccination programme for infants with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13). METHODS: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens were collected from patients with suspected meningitis in the Brong-Ahafo region. CSF specimens were subjected to Gram staining, culture and rapid antigen testing. Quantitative PCR was performed to identify pneumococcus, meningococcus and Haemophilus influenzae. Latex agglutination and molecular serotyping were performed on samples. Antibiogram and whole genome sequencing were performed on pneumococcal isolates. RESULTS: Eight hundred eighty six patients were reported with suspected meningitis in the Brong-Ahafo region during the period of the outbreak. In the epicenter district, the prevalence was as high as 363 suspected cases per 100,000 people. Over 95 % of suspected cases occurred in non-infant children and adults, with a median age of 20 years. Bacterial meningitis was confirmed in just under a quarter of CSF specimens tested. Pneumococcus, meningococcus and Group B Streptococcus accounted for 77 %, 22 % and 1 % of confirmed cases respectively. The vast majority of serotyped pneumococci (80 %) belonged to serotype 1. Most of the pneumococcal isolates tested were susceptible to a broad range of antibiotics, with the exception of two pneumococcal serotype 1 strains that were resistant to both penicillin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. All sequenced pneumococcal serotype 1 strains belong to Sequence Type (ST) 303 in the hypervirulent ST217 clonal complex. CONCLUSION: The occurrence of a pneumococcal serotype 1 meningitis outbreak three years after the introduction of PCV13 is alarming and calls for strengthening of meningitis surveillance and a re-evaluation of the current vaccination programme in high risk countries

Maximale Wahrscheinlichkeits Analyse für bivariate Exponentialverteilung

Eine Verallgemeinerung der bivariaten Exponentialverteilung von Marshall und Olkin (1967) wird vorgeschlagen und asymptotische Normalverteilung hergeleitet. Das klassische Marshall-Olkin-Modell ist eine Mischung aus einer absolut-stetigen und einer singulren Komponente, die ihre Masse auf der Diagonalen x = y konzentriert. In dieser Arbeit verallgemeinern wir das Resultat von Marshall und Olkin zu einer Verteilung mit positiver Masse auf Geraden x = \mu y, \mu > 0. Einige Simulationsergebnisse zum Vergleich der beiden Modelle werden dargestellt. Wir leiten auch eine Erweiterung des Modells von Marshall and Olkin (1967) fr eine beliebige stetige und in einem offenen dichten Definitionsbereich zweimal stetig differenzierbare Funktion her. Diese Erweiterung ergibt eine Klasse von Modellen, deren Randverteilungen in einigen Fllen Exponentialverteilungen sind. Wir leiten asymptotische Normalverteilungen fr diese Klasse her. Wir modellieren die ersten gemischten Momente derjenigen bivariaten Exponentialmodelle, deren Randverteilungen wiederum Exponentialverteilung sind, mit der Methode verallgemeinerter linearer Modelle

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management COCOA PRODUCTION IN GHANA: TRENDS AND VOLATILITY

Abstract The Ghanaian economy is dependent to a high degree on primary production, in agriculture and mining for exports. (-20.80127) was seen to be significant, hence the return of cocoa purchases series doesn&apos;t have a unit root problem. The ARCH and GARCH coefficients (0.53 and 0.15

A Fractional Differential Equation Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Disease in Ghana

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread through almost 224 countries and has caused over 5 million deaths. In this paper, we propose a model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana using fractional-derivatives. The fractional-derivative is defined in the Atangana Beleanu Caputo (ABC) sense. This model considers seven (7) classes namely; Susceptible individuals, Exposed, Asymptomatic population, Symptomatic, Vaccinated, Quarantined, and Recovered population. The equilibrium points, stability analysis, and the basic reproduction number of the model have been determined. The existence and uniqueness of the solution and Ulam Hyers stability are established. The model is tested using Ghana demographical and COVID-19 data. Further, two preventive control measures are incorporated into the model. The numerical analysis reveals the impact of the fractional-order derivative on the various classes of the disease model as one can get reliable information at any integer or non-integer value of the fractional operator. The results of the simulation predict the COVID-19 cases in Ghana. Analysis of the optimal control reveals social distancing leads to an increase in the susceptible population, whereas vaccination reduces the number of susceptible individuals. Both vaccination and social distancing lead to a decline in COVID-19 infections. It was established that the fractional-order derivatives could influence the behavior of all classes in the proposed COVID-19 disease model.Comment: The manuscript contains 21 figures and has 42 page

Intimate Partner Violence and Pregnancy Termination Among Women in Sub-Saharan Africa

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is predominant in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and has serious adverse effects on the physical, psychological, and reproductive health of those who experience it. For reproductive health outcomes, experiencing IPV has been linked to higher odds of unintended pregnancies that can result in abortion. Hence, we examined the association between IPV and pregnancy termination among women in SSA. This study used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of 25 countries in SSA, which adopted a cross-sectional study design. Bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression models were used to examine the association between IPV and pregnancy termination. The results were presented as crude odds ratios (cORs) and adjusted odds ratios (aORs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The prevalence of IPV and pregnancy termination were 40.8% and 16.5%, respectively. The odds of pregnancy termination was higher among women who had experienced IPV [cOR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.52–1.61] compared to those who had never experienced IPV. This persisted after controlling for potential confounders [aOR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.51–1.61]. At the country level, IPV had a significant association with pregnancy termination in all the countries considered, except Sierra Leone and Namibia. These findings highlight the need for laws and policies to protect women from IPV in SSA, especially in the countries that recorded higher odds of IPV and pregnancy termination

A multi-country cross-sectional study of self-reported sexually transmitted infections among sexually active men in sub-Saharan Africa

Seidu A-A, Ahinkorah BO, Dadzie LK, et al. A multi-country cross-sectional study of self-reported sexually transmitted infections among sexually active men in sub-Saharan Africa. BMC Public Health. 2020;20(1):1-11.Abstract Background Despite the importance of self-reporting health in sexually transmitted infections (STIs) control, studies on self-reported sexually transmitted infections (SR-STIs) are scanty, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study assessed the prevalence and factors associated with SR-STIs among sexually active men (SAM) in SSA. Methods Analysis was done based on the current Demographic and Health Survey of 27 countries in SSA conducted between 2010 and 2018. A total of 130,916 SAM were included in the analysis. The outcome variable was SR-STI. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed with a statistical significance set at p &lt; 0.05. Results On the average, the prevalence of STIs among SAM in SSA was 3.8%, which ranged from 13.5% in Liberia to 0.4% in Niger. Sexually-active men aged 25–34 (AOR = 1.77, CI:1.6–1.95) were more likely to report STIs, compared to those aged 45 or more years. Respondents who were working (AOR = 1.24, CI: 1.12–1.38) and those who had their first sex at ages below 20 (AOR = 1.20, CI:1.11–1.29) were more likely to report STIs, compared to those who were not working and those who had their first sex when they were 20 years and above. Also, SAM who were not using condom had higher odds of STIs (AOR = 1.35, CI: 1.25–1.46), compared to those who were using condom. Further, SAM with no comprehensive HIV and AIDS knowledge had higher odds (AOR = 1.43, CI: 1.08–1.22) of STIs, compared to those who reported to have HIV/AIDS knowledge. Conversely, the odds of reporting STIs was lower among residents of rural areas (AOR = 0.93, CI: 0.88–0.99) compared to their counterparts in urban areas, respondents who had no other sexual partner (AOR = 0.32, CI: 0.29–0.35) compared to those who had 2 or more sexual partners excluding their spouses, those who reported not paying for sex (AOR = 0.55, CI: 0.51–0.59) compared to those who paid for sex, and those who did not read newspapers (AOR = 0.93, CI: 0.86–0.99) compared to those who read. Conclusion STIs prevalence across the selected countries in SSA showed distinct cross-country variations. Current findings suggest that STIs intervention priorities must be given across countries with high prevalence. Several socio-demographic factors predicted SR-STIs. To reduce the prevalence of STIs among SAM in SSA, it is prudent to take these factors (e.g., age, condom use, employment status, HIV/AIDS knowledge) into consideration when planning health education and STIs prevention strategies among SAM. </jats:sec

sj-docx-1-smo-10.1177_20503121231225924 – Supplemental material for Health and safety of health workers in the Suame Municipality of Ghana – Lessons learnt from the COVID-19 outbreak in infection prevention and control for future pandemics

Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-smo-10.1177_20503121231225924 for Health and safety of health workers in the Suame Municipality of Ghana – Lessons learnt from the COVID-19 outbreak in infection prevention and control for future pandemics by David Oppong Darko, Douglas Aninng Opoku, Nana Kwame Ayisi-Boateng, Aliyu Mohammed, Jennifer Ashilevi, Obed Kwabena Offe Amponsah, Ayongo Mate-Kole, Dora Egblewogbe, Bridgetta Addai Darko, Ebenezer Agyemang and Paul Okyere in SAGE Open Medicine</p

Additional file 1: of An outbreak of pneumococcal meningitis among older children (≥5 years) and adults after the implementation of an infant vaccination programme with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Ghana

The weekly distribution of suspected meningitis cases in the hardest hit districts. (A) Jaman North District, (B) Tain District, (C) Techiman Municipal District and (D) Wenchi District. (JPG 609 kb