Voting and the Cardinal Aggregation of Judgments

The paper elaborates the idea that voting is an instance of the aggregation of judgments, this being a more general concept than the aggregation of preferences. To aggregate judgments one must first measure them. I show that such aggregation has been unproblematic whenever it has been based on an independent and unrestricted scale. The scales analyzed in voting theory are either context dependent or subject to unreasonable restrictions. This is the real source of the diverse 'paradoxes of voting' that would better be termed 'voting pathologies'. The theory leads me to advocate what I term evaluative voting. It can also be called utilitarian voting as it is based on having voters express their cardinal preferences. The alternative that maximizes the sum wins. This proposal operationalizes, in an election context, the abstract cardinal theories of collective choice due to Fleming and Harsanyi. On pragmatic grounds, I argue for a three valued scale for general elections

Gas emissions, minerals, and tars associated with three coal fires, Powder River Basin, USA.

Ground-based surveys of three coal fires and airborne surveys of two of the fires were conducted near Sheridan, Wyoming. The fires occur in natural outcrops and in abandoned mines, all containing Paleocene-age subbituminous coals. Diffuse (carbon dioxide (CO(2)) only) and vent (CO(2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane, hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), and elemental mercury) emission estimates were made for each of the fires. Additionally, gas samples were collected for volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis and showed a large range in variation between vents. The fires produce locally dangerous levels of CO, CO(2), H(2)S, and benzene, among other gases. At one fire in an abandoned coal mine, trends in gas and tar composition followed a change in topography. Total CO(2) fluxes for the fires from airborne, ground-based, and rate of fire advancement estimates ranged from 0.9 to 780mg/s/m(2) and are comparable to other coal fires worldwide. Samples of tar and coal-fire minerals collected from the mouth of vents provided insight into the behavior and formation of the coal fires

Quasi Harmonic Lattice Dynamics and Molecular Dynamics calculations for the Lennard-Jones solids

We present Molecular Dynamics (MD), Quasi Harmonic Lattice Dynamics (QHLD) and Energy Minimization (EM) calculations for the crystal structure of Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe as a function of pressure and temperature. New Lennard-Jones (LJ) parameters are obtained for Ne, Kr and Xe to reproduce the experimental pressure dependence of the density. We employ a simple method which combines results of QHLD and MD calculations to achieve densities in good agreement with experiment from 0 K to melting. Melting is discussed in connection with intrinsic instability of the solid as given by the QHLD approximation. (See http://www.fci.unibo.it/~valle for related papers)Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, REVte

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

How COVID-19 impacted child and family health and healthcare: a mixed-methods study incorporating family voices

To describe how social disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic impacted child access to healthcare and child health behaviors in 2020. We used mixed-methods to conduct surveys and in-depth interviews with English- and Spanish-speaking parents of young children from five geographic regions in the USA. Participants completed the COVID-19 Exposure and Family Impact Survey (CEFIS). Semistructured telephone interviews were conducted between August and October 2020. Of the 72 parents interviewed, 45.8% of participants were Hispanic, 20.8% Black (non-Hispanic), and 19.4% White (non-Hispanic). On the CEFIS, the average (SD) number of social/family disruptions reported was 10.5 (3.8) out of 25. Qualitative analysis revealed multiple levels of themes that influenced accessing healthcare during the pandemic, including two broad contextual themes: (a) lack of trustworthiness of medical system/governmental organizations, and (b) uncertainty due to lack of consistency across multiple sources of information. This context influenced two themes that shaped the social and emotional environments in which participants accessed healthcare: (a) fear and anxiety and (b) social isolation. However, the pandemic also had some positive impacts on families: over 80% indicated that the pandemic made it "a lot"or "a little"better to care for their new infants. Social and family disruptions due to COVID-19 were common. These disruptions contributed to social isolation and fear, and adversely impacted multiple aspects of child and family health and access to healthcare. Some parents of infants reported improvements in specific health domains such as parenting, possibly due to spending more time together

Party activism in the populist radical right: The case of the UK Independence Party

Recent decades have seen an upsurge of interest in populist radical right (PRR) parties. Yet despite a large body of research on PRR voters, there are few studies of the internal life of these parties. In particular, there is a dearth of research about why people are active in them. This article uses data from a unique large-scale survey of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) members to investigate if drivers of voting support for these parties are also important for explaining party activism. Analyses show that traditional models of party activism are important for understanding engagement in UKIP, but macro-level forces captured in an expanded relative deprivation model also stimulate participation in the party. That said macro-level forces are not the dominant driver of activism

The West against the rest? Democracy versus autocracy promotion in Venezuela

Venezuela provides a strong test case for the weakening of democracy and the strengthening of autocracy promotion. External actors are a key part of the domestic political game: the European Union and the United States (EUUS) promote ‘democracy by coercion’ and recognised Juan Guaidó as president, whereas China, Cuba and Russia (CCR) bolster the regime of Nicolás Maduro. A comparative foreign policy analysis argues that, firstly, EUUS sanctions have resulted in strengthening CCR's autocratic leverage and linkage; and secondly, the division ‘between the West and the Rest’ has posed an additional obstacle for a transition to democracy and national reconstructio