New method for critical failure prediction of complex systems

Rigorous analytical technique, called criticality determination methodology /or CD technique/ determines the probability that a given complex system will successfully achieve stated objectives. The CD technique identifies critical elements of the system by a failure mode and effects analysis

Spatiotemporal correlations of handset-based service usages

We study spatiotemporal correlations and temporal diversities of handset-based service usages by analyzing a dataset that includes detailed information about locations and service usages of 124 users over 16 months. By constructing the spatiotemporal trajectories of the users we detect several meaningful places or contexts for each one of them and show how the context affects the service usage patterns. We find that temporal patterns of service usages are bound to the typical weekly cycles of humans, yet they show maximal activities at different times. We first discuss their temporal correlations and then investigate the time-ordering behavior of communication services like calls being followed by the non-communication services like applications. We also find that the behavioral overlap network based on the clustering of temporal patterns is comparable to the communication network of users. Our approach provides a useful framework for handset-based data analysis and helps us to understand the complexities of information and communications technology enabled human behavior.Comment: 11 pages, 15 figure

Relative commutants of strongly self-absorbing C*-algebras

The relative commutant $A'\cap A^{\mathcal{U}}$ of a strongly self-absorbing algebra $A$ is indistinguishable from its ultrapower $A^{\mathcal{U}}$. This applies both to the case when $A$ is the hyperfinite II$_1$ factor and to the case when it is a strongly self-absorbing C*-algebra. In the latter case we prove analogous results for $\ell_\infty(A)/c_0(A)$ and reduced powers corresponding to other filters on $\bf N$. Examples of algebras with approximately inner flip and approximately inner half-flip are provided, showing the optimality of our results. We also prove that strongly self-absorbing algebras are smoothly classifiable, unlike the algebras with approximately inner half-flip.Comment: Some minor correction

Lo-Fi Matchmaking: A Study of Social Pairing for Backpackers

There is a new world emerging around mobile social networks and the technologies used to facilitate and mediate them. It is technically feasible for mobile social software such as pairing or matchmaking systems to introduce people to others and assist information exchange. However, little is known about the social structure of many mobile communities or why they would want pairing systems. When these systems are built, it is not clear what the social response by those communities will be or what the systems will be like to use in practice. While engaged in other work determining requirements for a mobile travel assistant we saw a potentially useful application for a pairing system to facilitate the exchange of travel information between backpackers. To explore this area, we designed two studies involving usage of a low-fidelity role prototype of a social pairing system for backpackers. Graphs of the resulting social pairings showed backpackers who were hubs in the network of travel information. It also demonstrated the effect of travel direction on information utility. Backpackers rated the utility of different pairing types, and provided feedback on the social implications of being paired based on travel histories. Practical usage of the social network pairing activity and the implications of broader societal usage are discussed

Pervasive sensing to model political opinions in face-to-face networks

Exposure and adoption of opinions in social networks are important questions in education, business, and government. We de- scribe a novel application of pervasive computing based on using mobile phone sensors to measure and model the face-to-face interactions and subsequent opinion changes amongst undergraduates, during the 2008 US presidential election campaign. We nd that self-reported political discussants have characteristic interaction patterns and can be predicted from sensor data. Mobile features can be used to estimate unique individ- ual exposure to di erent opinions, and help discover surprising patterns of dynamic homophily related to external political events, such as elec- tion debates and election day. To our knowledge, this is the rst time such dynamic homophily e ects have been measured. Automatically esti- mated exposure explains individual opinions on election day. Finally, we report statistically signi cant di erences in the daily activities of individ- uals that change political opinions versus those that do not, by modeling and discovering dominant activities using topic models. We nd people who decrease their interest in politics are routinely exposed (face-to-face) to friends with little or no interest in politics.U.S. Army Research Laboratory (Cooperative Agreement No. W911NF-09-2-0053)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Award No. FA9550-10-1-0122)Swiss National Science Foundatio

Robust modeling of human contact networks across different scales and proximity-sensing techniques

The problem of mapping human close-range proximity networks has been tackled using a variety of technical approaches. Wearable electronic devices, in particular, have proven to be particularly successful in a variety of settings relevant for research in social science, complex networks and infectious diseases dynamics. Each device and technology used for proximity sensing (e.g., RFIDs, Bluetooth, low-power radio or infrared communication, etc.) comes with specific biases on the close-range relations it records. Hence it is important to assess which statistical features of the empirical proximity networks are robust across different measurement techniques, and which modeling frameworks generalize well across empirical data. Here we compare time-resolved proximity networks recorded in different experimental settings and show that some important statistical features are robust across all settings considered. The observed universality calls for a simplified modeling approach. We show that one such simple model is indeed able to reproduce the main statistical distributions characterizing the empirical temporal networks

Cellular expression, trafficking, and function of two isoforms of human ULBP5/RAET1G

Background: The activating immunoreceptor NKG2D is expressed on Natural Killer (NK) cells and subsets of T cells. NKG2D contributes to anti-tumour and anti-viral immune responses in vitro and in vivo. The ligands for NKG2D in humans are diverse proteins of the MIC and ULBP/RAET families that are upregulated on the surface of virally infected cells and tumours. Two splicing variants of ULBP5/RAET1G have been cloned previously, but not extensively characterised. Methodology/Principal Findings: We pursue a number of approaches to characterise the expression, trafficking, and function of the two isoforms of ULBP5/RAET1G. We show that both transcripts are frequently expressed in cell lines derived from epithelial cancers, and in primary breast cancers. The full-length transcript, RAET1G1, is predicted to encode a molecule with transmembrane and cytoplasmic domains that are unique amongst NKG2D ligands. Using specific anti-RAET1G1 antiserum to stain tissue microarrays we show that RAET1G1 expression is highly restricted in normal tissues. RAET1G1 was expressed at a low level in normal gastrointestinal epithelial cells in a similar pattern to MICA. Both RAET1G1 and MICA showed increased expression in the gut of patients with celiac disease. In contrast to healthy tissues the RAET1G1 antiserum stained a wide variety or different primary tumour sections. Both endogenously expressed and transfected RAET1G1 was mainly found inside the cell, with a minority of the protein reaching the cell surface. Conversely the truncated splicing variant of RAET1G2 was shown to encode a soluble molecule that could be secreted from cells. Secreted RAET1G2 was shown to downregulate NKG2D receptor expression on NK cells and hence may represent a novel tumour immune evasion strategy. Conclusions/Significance: We demonstrate that the expression patterns of ULBP5RAET1G are very similar to the well-characterised NKG2D ligand, MICA. However the two isoforms of ULBP5/RAET1G have very different cellular localisations that are likely to reflect unique functionality

Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery : a cohort study

Background: In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction. A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison. Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Results: Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0.001) and perioperative mortality (2.7% vs 12.6% (odds ratio: 0.19) for open repair only, P < 0.05). CPET-stratified (open/endovascular) patients exhibited a mid-term survival benefit (P < 0.05). Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, a pre-operative AT > 11 ml/kg/min was associated with reduced perioperative mortality (open cases only), LOS, survival and inpatient costs (open and endovascular repair) for elective infra-renal AAA surgery