Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill

Defining cellular complexity in human autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease by multimodal single cell analysis

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading genetic cause of end stage renal disease characterized by progressive expansion of kidney cysts. To better understand the cell types and states driving ADPKD progression, we analyze eight ADPKD and five healthy human kidney samples, generating single cell multiomic atlas consisting of ~100,000 single nucleus transcriptomes and ~50,000 single nucleus epigenomes. Activation of proinflammatory, profibrotic signaling pathways are driven by proximal tubular cells with a failed repair transcriptomic signature, proinflammatory fibroblasts and collecting duct cells. We identify GPRC5A as a marker for cyst-lining collecting duct cells that exhibits increased transcription factor binding motif availability for NF-κB, TEAD, CREB and retinoic acid receptors. We identify and validate a distal enhancer regulating GPRC5A expression containing these motifs. This single cell multiomic analysis of human ADPKD reveals previously unrecognized cellular heterogeneity and provides a foundation to develop better diagnostic and therapeutic approaches

Extremely high He isotope ratios in MORB-source mantle from the proto-Iceland plume

The high <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He ratio of volcanic rocks thought to be derived from mantle plumes is taken as evidence for the existence of a mantle reservoir that has remained largely undegassed since the Earth's accretion. The helium isotope composition of this reservoir places constraints on the origin of volatiles within the Earth and on the evolution and structure of the Earth's mantle. Here we show that olivine phenocrysts in picritic basalts presumably derived from the proto-Iceland plume at Baffin Island, Canada, have the highest magmatic <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He ratios yet recorded. A strong correlation between <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He and <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr, <sup>143</sup>Nd/<sup>144</sup>Nd and trace element ratios demonstrate that the <sup>3</sup>He-rich end-member is present in basalts that are derived from large-volume melts of depleted upper-mantle rocks. This reservoir is consistent with the recharging of depleted upper-mantle rocks by small volumes of primordial volatile-rich lower-mantle material at a thermal boundary layer between convectively isolated reservoirs. The highest <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He basalts from Hawaii and Iceland plot on the observed mixing trend. This indicates that a <sup>3</sup>He-recharged depleted mantle (HRDM) reservoir may be the principal source of high <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He in mantle plumes, and may explain why the helium concentration of the 'plume' component in ocean island basalts is lower than that predicted for a two-layer, steady-state model of mantle structure

The personal experience of parenting a child with Juvenile Huntington’s Disease: perceptions across Europe

The study reported here presents a detailed description of what it is like to parent a child with juvenile Huntington’s disease in families across four European countries. Its primary aim was to develop and extend findings from a previous UK study. The study recruited parents from four European countries: Holland, Italy, Poland and Sweden,. A secondary aim was to see the extent to which the findings from the UK study were repeated across Europe and the degree of commonality or divergence across the different countries. Fourteen parents who were the primary caregiver took part in a semistructured interview. These were analyzed using an established qualitative methodology, interpretative phenomenological analysis. Five analytic themes were derived from the analysis: the early signs of something wrong; parental understanding of juvenile Huntington’s disease; living with the disease; other people’s knowledge and understanding; and need for support. These are discussed in light of the considerable convergence between the experiences of families in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe

Illness perceptions and explanatory models of viral hepatitis B & C among immigrants and refugees: a narrative systematic review.

© 2015 Owiti et al.; licensee BioMed Central. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B and C (HBV, HCV) infections are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Many countries with traditionally low prevalence (such as UK) are now planning interventions (screening, vaccination, and treatment) of high-risk immigrants from countries with high prevalence. This review aimed to synthesise the evidence on immigrants' knowledge of HBV and HCV that might influence the uptake of clinical interventions. The review was also used to inform the design and successful delivery of a randomised controlled trial of targeted screening and treatment. METHODS: Five databases (PubMed, CINHAL, SOCIOFILE, PsycINFO & Web of Science) were systematically searched, supplemented by reference tracking, searches of selected journals, and of relevant websites. We aimed to identify qualitative and quantitative studies that investigated knowledge of HBV and HCV among immigrants from high endemic areas to low endemic areas. Evidence, extracted according to a conceptual framework of Kleinman's explanatory model, was subjected to narrative synthesis. We adapted the PEN-3 model to categorise and analyse themes, and recommend strategies for interventions to influence help-seeking behaviour. RESULTS: We identified 51 publications including quantitative (n = 39), qualitative (n = 11), and mixed methods (n = 1) designs. Most of the quantitative studies included small samples and had heterogeneous methods and outcomes. The studies mainly concentrated on hepatitis B and ethnic groups of South East Asian immigrants residing in USA, Canada, and Australia. Many immigrants lacked adequate knowledge of aetiology, symptoms, transmission risk factors, prevention strategies, and treatment, of hepatitis HBV and HCV. Ethnicity, gender, better education, higher income, and English proficiency influenced variations in levels and forms of knowledge. CONCLUSION: Immigrants are vulnerable to HBV and HCV, and risk life-threatening complications from these infections because of poor knowledge and help-seeking behaviour. Primary studies in this area are extremely diverse and of variable quality precluding meta-analysis. Further research is needed outside North America and Australia

Analysis of the accuracy of actuation electronics in the laser interferometer space antenna pathfinder

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna Pathfinder (LPF) main observable, labeled Δg, is the differential force per unit mass acting on the two test masses under free fall conditions after the contribution of all non-gravitational forces has been compensated. At low frequencies, the differential force is compensated by an applied electrostatic actuation force, which then must be subtracted from the measured acceleration to obtain Δg. Any inaccuracy in the actuation force contaminates the residual acceleration. This study investigates the accuracy of the electrostatic actuation system and its impact on the LPF main observable. It is shown that the inaccuracy is mainly caused by the rounding errors in the waveform processing and also by the random error caused by the analog to digital converter random noise in the control loop. Both errors are one order of magnitude smaller than the resolution of the commanded voltages. We developed a simulator based on the LPF design to compute the close-to-reality actuation voltages and, consequently, the resulting actuation forces. The simulator is applied during post-processing the LPF data

Sensor noise in <i>LISA Pathfinder</i>: An extensive in-flight review of the angular and longitudinal interferometric measurement system

In a previous article [1], we have reported on the first subpicometer interferometer flown in space as part of ESA’s LISA Pathfinder mission, and have shown the residual sensor noise to be on the level of 32.0+2.4−1.7  fm/√Hz. This review provides a deeper and more complete overview of the full system and its interferometric mission performance under varying operational conditions, allowing a much more detailed view on the noise model. We also include the optical measurements of rotations through differential wave front sensing (DWS), which reached a sensitivity of as good as 100  prad/√Hz. We present more evidence for the long-term stability of the interferometric performance and components. This proves a solid foundation for future interferometry in space such as the LISA mission

Transient acceleration events in LISA Pathfinder data: Properties and possible physical origin

We present an in depth analysis of the transient events, or glitches, detected at a rate of about one per day in the differential acceleration data of LISA Pathfinder. We show that these glitches fall in two rather distinct categories: fast transients in the interferometric motion readout on one side, and true force transient events on the other. The former are fast and rare in ordinary conditions. The second may last from seconds to hours and constitute the majority of the glitches. We present an analysis of the physical and statistical properties of both categories, including a cross-analysis with other time series like magnetic fields, temperature, and other dynamical variables. Based on these analyses we discuss the possible sources of the force glitches and identify the most likely, among which the outgassing environment surrounding the test-masses stands out. We discuss the impact of these findings on the LISA design and operation, and some risk mitigation measures, including experimental studies that may be conducted on the ground, aimed at clarifying some of the questions left open by our analysis

Candidate Causal Regulatory Effects by Integration of Expression QTLs with Complex Trait Genetic Associations

The recent success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is now followed by the challenge to determine how the reported susceptibility variants mediate complex traits and diseases. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) have been implicated in disease associations through overlaps between eQTLs and GWAS signals. However, the abundance of eQTLs and the strong correlation structure (LD) in the genome make it likely that some of these overlaps are coincidental and not driven by the same functional variants. In the present study, we propose an empirical methodology, which we call Regulatory Trait Concordance (RTC) that accounts for local LD structure and integrates eQTLs and GWAS results in order to reveal the subset of association signals that are due to cis eQTLs. We simulate genomic regions of various LD patterns with both a single or two causal variants and show that our score outperforms SNP correlation metrics, be they statistical (r2) or historical (D'). Following the observation of a significant abundance of regulatory signals among currently published GWAS loci, we apply our method with the goal to prioritize relevant genes for each of the respective complex traits. We detect several potential disease-causing regulatory effects, with a strong enrichment for immunity-related conditions, consistent with the nature of the cell line tested (LCLs). Furthermore, we present an extension of the method in trans, where interrogating the whole genome for downstream effects of the disease variant can be informative regarding its unknown primary biological effect. We conclude that integrating cellular phenotype associations with organismal complex traits will facilitate the biological interpretation of the genetic effects on these traits