Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine : an ecological 28-year time series study

Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis. Methods: We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models. Results: There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001). Discussion and Conclusion: A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence

Seasonality in pulmonary tuberculosis among migrant workers entering Kuwait

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is paucity of data on seasonal variation in pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in developing countries contrary to recognized seasonality in the TB notification in western societies. This study examined the seasonal pattern in TB diagnosis among migrant workers from developing countries entering Kuwait.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Monthly aggregates of TB diagnosis results for consecutive migrants tested between January I, 1997 and December 31, 2006 were analyzed. We assessed the amplitude (<it>α</it>) of the sinusoidal oscillation and the time at which maximum (<it>θ</it>°) TB cases were detected using Edwards' test. The adequacy of the hypothesized sinusoidal curve was assessed by <it>χ</it>²goodness-of-fit test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the 10 year study period, the proportion (per 100,000) of pulmonary TB cases among the migrants was 198 (4608/2328582), (95% confidence interval: 192 – 204). The adjusted mean monthly number of pulmonary TB cases was 384. Based on the observed seasonal pattern in the data, the maximum number of TB cases was expected during the last week of April (<it>θ</it>° = 112°; <it>P </it>< 0.001). The amplitude (± se) (<it>α </it>= 0.204 ± 0.04) of simple harmonic curve showed 20.4% difference from the mean to maximum TB cases. The peak to low ratio of adjusted number of TB cases was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.39 – 1.65). The <it>χ</it>²goodness-of-test revealed that there was no significant (<it>P </it>> 0.1) departure of observed frequencies from the fitted simple harmonic curve. Seasonal component explained 55% of the total variation in the proportions of TB cases (100,000) among the migrants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This regularity of peak seasonality in TB case detection may prove useful to institute measures that warrant a better attendance of migrants. Public health authorities may consider re-allocation of resources in the period of peak seasonality to minimize the risk of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>infection to close contacts in this and comparable settings in the region having similar influx of immigrants from high TB burden countries. Epidemiological surveillance for the TB risk in the migrants in subsequent years and required chemotherapy of detected cases may contribute in global efforts to control this public health menace.</p