ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Migraine: a major debilitating chronic non-communicable disease in Brazil, evidence from two national surveys

Background Even though migraine and other primary headache disorders are common and debilitating, major health surveys in Brazil have not included them. We repair this omission by combining data on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Brazilian National Health Survey (PNS) 2013 with epidemiological data on migraine prevalence and severity in Brazil. The purpose is to rank migraine and its impact on public healthh among NCDs in order to support public-health policy toward better care for migraine in Brazil. Methods Data from PNS, a cross-sectional population-based study, were merged with estimates made by the Brazilian Headache Epidemiology Study (BHES) of migraine prevalence (numbers of people affected and of candidates for migraine preventative therapy) and migraine-attributed disability. Results Migraine ranked second in prevalence among the NCDs, and as the highest cause of disability among adults in Brazil. Probable migraine accounted for substantial additional disability. An estimated total of 5.5 million people in Brazil (or 9.5 million with probable migraine included) were in need of preventative therapy. Conclusion On this evidence, migraine should be included in the next health surveys in Brazil. Public-health policy should recognize the burden of migraine expressed in public ill health, and promote health services offering better diagnosis and treatment

Representing complex data using localized principal components with application to astronomical data

Often the relation between the variables constituting a multivariate data space might be characterized by one or more of the terms: ``nonlinear'', ``branched'', ``disconnected'', ``bended'', ``curved'', ``heterogeneous'', or, more general, ``complex''. In these cases, simple principal component analysis (PCA) as a tool for dimension reduction can fail badly. Of the many alternative approaches proposed so far, local approximations of PCA are among the most promising. This paper will give a short review of localized versions of PCA, focusing on local principal curves and local partitioning algorithms. Furthermore we discuss projections other than the local principal components. When performing local dimension reduction for regression or classification problems it is important to focus not only on the manifold structure of the covariates, but also on the response variable(s). Local principal components only achieve the former, whereas localized regression approaches concentrate on the latter. Local projection directions derived from the partial least squares (PLS) algorithm offer an interesting trade-off between these two objectives. We apply these methods to several real data sets. In particular, we consider simulated astrophysical data from the future Galactic survey mission Gaia.Comment: 25 pages. In "Principal Manifolds for Data Visualization and Dimension Reduction", A. Gorban, B. Kegl, D. Wunsch, and A. Zinovyev (eds), Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering, Springer, 2007, pp. 180--204, http://www.springer.com/dal/home/generic/search/results?SGWID=1-40109-22-173750210-

Interacting Supernovae: Types IIn and Ibn

Supernovae (SNe) that show evidence of strong shock interaction between their ejecta and pre-existing, slower circumstellar material (CSM) constitute an interesting, diverse, and still poorly understood category of explosive transients. The chief reason that they are extremely interesting is because they tell us that in a subset of stellar deaths, the progenitor star may become wildly unstable in the years, decades, or centuries before explosion. This is something that has not been included in standard stellar evolution models, but may significantly change the end product and yield of that evolution, and complicates our attempts to map SNe to their progenitors. Another reason they are interesting is because CSM interaction is an efficient engine for making bright transients, allowing super-luminous transients to arise from normal SN explosion energies, and allowing transients of normal SN luminosities to arise from sub-energetic explosions or low radioactivity yield. CSM interaction shrouds the fast ejecta in bright shock emission, obscuring our normal view of the underlying explosion, and the radiation hydrodynamics of the interaction is challenging to model. The CSM interaction may also be highly non-spherical, perhaps linked to binary interaction in the progenitor system. In some cases, these complications make it difficult to definitively tell the difference between a core-collapse or thermonuclear explosion, or to discern between a non-terminal eruption, failed SN, or weak SN. Efforts to uncover the physical parameters of individual events and connections to possible progenitor stars make this a rapidly evolving topic that continues to challenge paradigms of stellar evolution.Comment: Final draft of a chapter in the "SN Handbook". Accepted. 25 pages, 3 fig

Dose response of the 16p11.2 distal copy number variant on intracranial volume and basal ganglia.

Carriers of large recurrent copy number variants (CNVs) have a higher risk of developing neurodevelopmental disorders. The 16p11.2 distal CNV predisposes carriers to e.g., autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia. We compared subcortical brain volumes of 12 16p11.2 distal deletion and 12 duplication carriers to 6882 non-carriers from the large-scale brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging collaboration, ENIGMA-CNV. After stringent CNV calling procedures, and standardized FreeSurfer image analysis, we found negative dose-response associations with copy number on intracranial volume and on regional caudate, pallidum and putamen volumes (β = -0.71 to -1.37; P < 0.0005). In an independent sample, consistent results were obtained, with significant effects in the pallidum (β = -0.95, P = 0.0042). The two data sets combined showed significant negative dose-response for the accumbens, caudate, pallidum, putamen and ICV (P = 0.0032, 8.9 × 10-6, 1.7 × 10-9, 3.5 × 10-12 and 1.0 × 10-4, respectively). Full scale IQ was lower in both deletion and duplication carriers compared to non-carriers. This is the first brain MRI study of the impact of the 16p11.2 distal CNV, and we demonstrate a specific effect on subcortical brain structures, suggesting a neuropathological pattern underlying the neurodevelopmental syndromes

Gravitational waves from single neutron stars: an advanced detector era survey

With the doors beginning to swing open on the new gravitational wave astronomy, this review provides an up-to-date survey of the most important physical mechanisms that could lead to emission of potentially detectable gravitational radiation from isolated and accreting neutron stars. In particular we discuss the gravitational wave-driven instability and asteroseismology formalism of the f- and r-modes, the different ways that a neutron star could form and sustain a non-axisymmetric quadrupolar "mountain" deformation, the excitation of oscillations during magnetar flares and the possible gravitational wave signature of pulsar glitches. We focus on progress made in the recent years in each topic, make a fresh assessment of the gravitational wave detectability of each mechanism and, finally, highlight key problems and desiderata for future work.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables. Chapter of the book "Physics and Astrophysics of Neutron Stars", NewCompStar COST Action 1304. Minor corrections to match published versio

Modulation of glutaredoxin in the lung and sputum of cigarette smokers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND: One typical feature in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the disturbance of the oxidant/antioxidant balance. Glutaredoxins (Grx) are thiol disulfide oxido-reductases with antioxidant capacity and catalytic functions closely associated with glutathione, the major small molecular weight antioxidant of human lung. However, the role of Grxs in smoking related diseases is unclear. METHODS: Immunohistochemical and Western blot analyses were conducted with lung specimens (n = 45 and n = 32, respectively) and induced sputum (n = 50) of healthy non-smokers and smokers without COPD and at different stages of COPD. RESULTS: Grx1 was expressed mainly in alveolar macrophages. The percentage of Grx1 positive macrophages was significantly lower in GOLD stage IV COPD than in healthy smokers (p = 0.021) and the level of Grx1 in total lung homogenate decreased both in stage I–II (p = 0.045) and stage IV COPD (p = 0.022). The percentage of Grx1 positive macrophages correlated with the lung function parameters (FEV1, r = 0.45, p = 0.008; FEV1%, r = 0.46, p = 0.007, FEV/FVC%, r = 0.55, p = 0.001). Grx1 could also be detected in sputum supernatants, the levels being increased in the supernatants from acute exacerbations of COPD compared to non-smokers (p = 0.013) and smokers (p = 0.051). CONCLUSION: The present cross-sectional study showed that Grx1 was expressed mainly in alveolar macrophages, the levels being decreased in COPD patients. In addition, the results also demonstrated the presence of Grx1 in extracellular fluids including sputum supernatants. Overall, the present study suggests that Grx1 is a potential redox modulatory protein regulating the intracellular as well as extracellular homeostasis of glutathionylated proteins and GSH in human lung

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201