Measurement Of Regıonal Economic Performance In Turkey: A Shıft-share Analysıs (1992-2008)

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2012Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2012Türkiye’de bölgesel politikalar planlı dönem olarak da bilinen 1960 yılından bu yana beş yıllık kalkınma planları ile yürütülmektedir. Bu planların temel hedef ve amaçları dönemin koşullarına göre değişim gösterse de bölgesel farklılıklara yapılan vurgu tüm planlarda yerini korumuştur. Buna rağmen yapılan pek çok çalışma Türkiye’de bölgesel politika ve politika araçlarının bölgesel farklılıkları azaltmada başarılı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşmaktadır. Bu başarısızlığın altındaki ilk neden gelişmekte olan ülkelerin birçoğunda karşılaşılan ikilem olarak görülmektedir. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi sağlamak adına bölgesel politikalar ikinci plana atılmaktadır. Başarısızlığın altındaki ikinci neden ise bölgesel politikaların bölgelerin ekonomik dinamiklerine dikkat edilmeden hazırlanmasıdır. Bu çalışma bölgesel ekonomik dinamiklere uygun olmayan bölgesel politikaların hazırlandığı eleştirisinden yola çıkılarak hazırlanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı bölgelerin sektörel ve ekonomik performanslarına uygun bölgesel politikaların hazırlanmasına olanak sağlamak adına bölgesel ekonomik performansın ölçülmesi ve değerlendirilmesidir. Bu sayede politika hazırlayıcılarına bölgelerin ekonomik aktiviteleri ve sektörel yapıları hakkında bilgi sağlanmış olunacaktır. Bu çalışmada geleneksel ekonomik performans ölçme yöntemlerinden Shift-Share analizi tercih edilmiştir. Shift-Share analizi bölgesel istihdam değişimini ulusal büyüme, endüstriyel bileşim ve bölgesel değişim olmak üzere üç bileşene ayrıştırır. Bu çalışmada toplam ve imalat sanayi sektöründeki istihdam değişimi 26 İBBS Düzey 2 bölgesinde 1992-2008 yılları arasında ölçülmüştür. Tarım dışı sektörleri kapsayan toplam istihdam değişimdeki Shift-Share analiz sonuçlarına göre sadece TR10-İstanbul ve TR41 (Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik) bölgeleri ulusal düzeyde hızlı büyüyen sektörlere ve bu sektörlerde rekabetçi üstünlüklere sahiptir. TR31-İzmir, TR51-Ankara ve TR71-(Kırıkkale, Aksaray, Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir) bölgelerinde ise başlangıçta hızlı büyüyen sektörler yer almasına rağmen bu bölgeler bu sektörler için rekabetçi üstünlüklere sahip değildir. İmalat sanayi için yapılan analizin sonuçlarında, İstanbul’un hinterlandı üzerinde çok büyük yayılma etkisine sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. İstanbul’un hinterlandı dışındaki TR71-(Kırıkkale, Aksaray, Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir) ve TR81-(Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın) bölgeleri kamu sanayi yatırımlarının etkisiyle, TR72-(Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat) bölgesi ise içsel dinamikleri sayesinde imalat sanayi sektöründe rekabetçi üstünlüklere sahiptir.Regional policies in Turkey, have been carried out with Five Years Development Plans since 1960, which known as “planned period”. Main goals and objectives of these development plans have changed according to the conditions of periods, nevertheless emphasize of the regional disparities in development plans have remained its place. Despite this, several studies show that regional policies and policy instruments in Turkey have not succeeded to reduce regional disparities. The first reason for this failure has been seen as the dilemma that developing countries commonly has faced. In developing countries such as Turkey, in order to ensure economic growth, regional policies subordinate due to the conflict between regional policies and development policies. The second reason is the preparation of regional policies without considering the regional economic dynamics in Turkish regions. This paper has focused on the basis on the criticism of the preparation of regional policies without take into account of regional economic dynamics. The aim of this paper is to measure and evaluate the regional economic performance in Turkey in order to ensure the preparation of appropriate regional policies for regional sectoral and economic performances. In this way, information about region’s economic activities and sectoral structure will be provided for the policy makers. In this study, Shift-Share analysis is chosen from traditional tools for measuring and evaluating regional economic performance. In Shift-Share analysis, the change in employment is partitioned into three components measuring the influence of national share, industrial mix, and regional shift. Regional total and manufacturing industrial employment (NACE REV 1.1) changes in Turkey are estimated in 26 NUTS 2 regions from 1992 to 2008. The results of Shift-Share analysis of total employment change in Turkey indicate that only two NUTS 2 regions – TR10 Istanbul and TR41 (Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik) - have local industries that grow faster than national level with competitive advantages. Additionally TR31-Izmir, TR51-Ankara and TR71-(Kırıkkale, Aksaray, Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir) regions have fast growing manufacturing sub sectors initially with no competitive advantages. Also results of manufacturing employment changes show that Istanbul has a great spillover effect on its hinterland. Also public industry investments have a great effect on TR81-(Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın) and TR71-(Kırıkkale, Aksaray, Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir) regions. TR72-(Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat) regions can be evaluated as Anatolian tigers. Manufacturing competitive advantages of this region come from its endogenous dynamics, which make it good example for the other regions.Yüksek LisansM.Sc

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