Approximate Bayesian inference for doubly robust estimation

Doubly robust estimators are typically constructed by combining outcome regression and propensity score models to satisfy moment restrictions that ensure consistent estimation of causal quantities provided at least one of the component models is correctly specified. Standard Bayesian methods are difficult to apply because restricted moment models do not imply fully specified likelihood functions. This paper proposes a Bayesian bootstrap approach to derive approximate posterior predictive distributions that are doubly robust for estimation of causal quantities. Simulations show that the approach performs well under various sources of misspecification of the outcome regression or propensity score models. The estimator is applied in a case study of the effect of area deprivation on the incidence of child pedestrian casualties in British cities

lp-Recovery of the Most Significant Subspace among Multiple Subspaces with Outliers

We assume data sampled from a mixture of d-dimensional linear subspaces with spherically symmetric distributions within each subspace and an additional outlier component with spherically symmetric distribution within the ambient space (for simplicity we may assume that all distributions are uniform on their corresponding unit spheres). We also assume mixture weights for the different components. We say that one of the underlying subspaces of the model is most significant if its mixture weight is higher than the sum of the mixture weights of all other subspaces. We study the recovery of the most significant subspace by minimizing the lp-averaged distances of data points from d-dimensional subspaces, where p>0. Unlike other lp minimization problems, this minimization is non-convex for all p>0 and thus requires different methods for its analysis. We show that if 0<p<=1, then for any fraction of outliers the most significant subspace can be recovered by lp minimization with overwhelming probability (which depends on the generating distribution and its parameters). We show that when adding small noise around the underlying subspaces the most significant subspace can be nearly recovered by lp minimization for any 0<p<=1 with an error proportional to the noise level. On the other hand, if p>1 and there is more than one underlying subspace, then with overwhelming probability the most significant subspace cannot be recovered or nearly recovered. This last result does not require spherically symmetric outliers.Comment: This is a revised version of the part of 1002.1994 that deals with single subspace recovery. V3: Improved estimates (in particular for Lemma 3.1 and for estimates relying on it), asymptotic dependence of probabilities and constants on D and d and further clarifications; for simplicity it assumes uniform distributions on spheres. V4: minor revision for the published versio

Dynamical tunneling in molecules: Quantum routes to energy flow

Dynamical tunneling, introduced in the molecular context, is more than two decades old and refers to phenomena that are classically forbidden but allowed by quantum mechanics. On the other hand the phenomenon of intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) has occupied a central place in the field of chemical physics for a much longer period of time. Although the two phenomena seem to be unrelated several studies indicate that dynamical tunneling, in terms of its mechanism and timescales, can have important implications for IVR. Examples include the observation of local mode doublets, clustering of rotational energy levels, and extremely narrow vibrational features in high resolution molecular spectra. Both the phenomena are strongly influenced by the nature of the underlying classical phase space. This work reviews the current state of understanding of dynamical tunneling from the phase space perspective and the consequences for intramolecular vibrational energy flow in polyatomic molecules.Comment: 37 pages and 23 figures (low resolution); Int. Rev. Phys. Chem. (Review to appear in Oct. 2007

Modeling the Shape and Evolution of Normal-Fault Facets

Facets formed along the footwalls of active normal-fault blocks display a variety of longitudinal profile forms, with variations in gradient, shape, degree of soil cover, and presence or absence of a slope break at the fault trace. We show that a two-dimensional, process-oriented cellular automaton model of facet profile evolution can account for the observed morphologic diversity. The model uses two dimensionless parameters to represent fault slip, progressive rock weathering, and downslope colluvial-soil transport driven by gravity and stochastic disturbance events. The parameters represent rock weathering and soil disturbance rates, respectively, scaled by fault slip rate; both can be derived from field-estimated rate coefficients. In the model's transport-limited regime, slope gradient depends on the ratio of disturbance to slip rate, with a maximum that represents the angle of repose for colluvium. In this regime, facet evolution is consistent with nonlinear diffusion models of soil-mantled hillslope evolution. Under the weathering-limited regime, bedrock becomes partly exposed but microtopography helps trap some colluvium even when facet gradient exceeds the threshold angle. Whereas the model predicts a continuous gradient from footwall to colluvial wedge under transport-limited behavior, fully weathering-limited facets tend to develop a slope break between footwall and basal colluvium as a result of reduced transport efficiency on the rocky footwall slope. To the extent that the model provides a reasonable analogy for natural facets, its behavior suggests that facet profile morphology can provide useful constraints on relative potential rates of rock weathering, soil disturbance, and fault slip.</p

Habitat structure: a fundamental concept and framework for urban soil ecology

Habitat structure is defined as the composition and arrangement of physical matter at a location. Although habitat structure is the physical template underlying ecological patterns and processes, the concept is relatively unappreciated and underdeveloped in ecology. However, it provides a fundamental concept for urban ecology because human activities in urban ecosystems are often targeted toward management of habitat structure. In addition, the concept emphasizes the fine-scale, on-the-ground perspective needed in the study of urban soil ecology. To illustrate this, urban soil ecology research is summarized from the perspective of habitat structure effects. Among the key conclusions emerging from the literature review are: (1) habitat structure provides a unifying theme for multivariate research about urban soil ecology; (2) heterogeneous urban habitat structures influence soil ecological variables in different ways; (3) more research is needed to understand relationships among sociological variables, habitat structure patterns and urban soil ecology. To stimulate urban soil ecology research, a conceptual framework is presented to show the direct and indirect relationships among habitat structure and ecological variables. Because habitat structure serves as a physical link between sociocultural and ecological systems, it can be used as a focus for interdisciplinary and applied research (e.g., pest management) about the multiple, interactive effects of urbanization on the ecology of soils

Victimization and PTSD-like states in an Icelandic youth probability sample

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although adolescence in many cases is a period of rebellion and experimentation with new behaviors and roles, the exposure of adolescents to life-threatening and violent events has rarely been investigated in national probability studies using a broad range of events.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In an Icelandic national representative sample of 206 9th-grade students (mean = 14.5 years), the prevalence of 20 potentially traumatic events and negative life events was reported, along with the psychological impact of these events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seventy-four percent of the girls and 79 percent of the boys were exposed to at least one event. The most common events were the death of a family member, threat of violence, and traffic accidents. The estimated lifetime prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder-like states (PTSD; DSM-IV, APA, 1994 <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr></abbrgrp>) was 16 percent, whereas another 12 percent reached a sub-clinical level of PTSD-like states (missing the full diagnosis with one symptom). Following exposure, girls suffered from PTSD-like states almost twice as often as boys. Gender, mothers' education, and single-parenthood were associated with specific events. The odds ratios and 95% CI for PTSD-like states given a specific event are reported. Being exposed to multiple potentially traumatic events was associated with an increase in PTSD-like states.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings indicate substantial mental health problems in adolescents that are associated with various types of potentially traumatic exposure.</p

Crystal Structures Reveal the Multi-Ligand Binding Mechanism of Staphylococcus aureus ClfB

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) pathogenesis is a complex process involving a diverse array of extracellular and cell wall components. ClfB, an MSCRAMM (Microbial Surface Components Recognizing Adhesive Matrix Molecules) family surface protein, described as a fibrinogen-binding clumping factor, is a key determinant of S. aureus nasal colonization, but the molecular basis for ClfB-ligand recognition remains unknown. In this study, we solved the crystal structures of apo-ClfB and its complexes with fibrinogen α (Fg α) and cytokeratin 10 (CK10) peptides. Structural comparison revealed a conserved glycine-serine-rich (GSR) ClfB binding motif (GSSGXGXXG) within the ligands, which was also found in other human proteins such as Engrailed protein, TCF20 and Dermokine proteins. Interaction between Dermokine and ClfB was confirmed by subsequent binding assays. The crystal structure of ClfB complexed with a 15-residue peptide derived from Dermokine revealed the same peptide binding mode of ClfB as identified in the crystal structures of ClfB-Fg α and ClfB-CK10. The results presented here highlight the multi-ligand binding property of ClfB, which is very distinct from other characterized MSCRAMMs to-date. The adherence of multiple peptides carrying the GSR motif into the same pocket in ClfB is reminiscent of MHC molecules. Our results provide a template for the identification of other molecules targeted by S. aureus during its colonization and infection. We propose that other MSCRAMMs like ClfA and SdrG also possess multi-ligand binding properties