Mosaic effectiveness: measuring the impact of novel PrEP methods

Various ongoing trials seek to evaluate long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agents by showing that they are non-inferior to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine. Trials comparing oral PrEP to new methods examine effectiveness in a setting where only one or the other is provided; however, a new product will probably be delivered in a context where oral PrEP is also available. The effectiveness of a new PrEP product is best measured by its potential effect in a context that also includes oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine as an option. We offer an alternative standard for long-acting products—a measure of the effectiveness of the new product in addition to oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine as compared with oral PrEP alone. We term this measure mosaic effectiveness. We illustrate scenarios where a novel product can fail to show non-inferiority but show substantial mosaic effectiveness, thus implying the public health value of the novel product even if it is less effective than oral PrEP. Regulatory standards should consider mosaic effectiveness, not just comparative effectiveness. We assert that measurements that combine rigor with public health relevance can accelerate progress against the HIV epidemic

Minimizing the impact of the triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and HIV on health services in sub-Saharan Africa

In this perspective, we discuss the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis (TB)/HIV health services and approaches to mitigating the growing burden of these three colliding epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA countries bear significantly high proportions of TB and HIV cases reported worldwide, compared to countries in the West. Whilst COVID-19 epidemiology appears to vary across Africa, most countries in this region have reported relatively lower-case counts compared to the West. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has added an additional burden to already overstretched health systems in SSA, which, among other things, have been focused on the longstanding dual epidemics of TB and HIV. As with these dual epidemics, inadequate resources and poor case identification and reporting may be contributing to underestimations of the COVID-19 case burden in SSA. Modelling studies predict that the pandemic-related disruptions in TB and HIV services will result in significant increases in associated morbidity and mortality over the next five years. Furthermore, limited empirical evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 coinfections with TB and HIV are associated with increased mortality risk in SSA. However, predictive models require a better evidence-base to accurately define the impact of COVID-19, not only on communicable diseases such as TB and HIV, but on non-communicable disease comorbidities. Further research is needed to assess morbidity and mortality data among both adults and children across the African continent, paying attention to geographic disparities, as well as the clinical and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 in the setting of TB and/or HIV

Two remarks on generalized entropy power inequalities

This note contributes to the understanding of generalized entropy power inequalities. Our main goal is to construct a counter-example regarding monotonicity and entropy comparison of weighted sums of independent identically distributed log-concave random variables. We also present a complex analogue of a recent dependent entropy power inequality of Hao and Jog, and give a very simple proof.Comment: arXiv:1811.00345 is split into 2 papers, with this being on

Retention in Care and Connection to Care among HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa: Estimation via a Sampling-Based Approach

Current estimates of retention among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa consider patients who are lost to follow-up (LTF) as well as those who die shortly after their last clinic visit to be no longer in care and to represent limitations in access to care. Yet many lost patients may have "silently" transferred and deaths shortly after the last clinic visit more likely represent limitations in clinical care rather than access to care after initial linkage.We evaluated HIV-infected adults initiating ART from 1/1/2004 to 9/30/2007 at a clinic in rural Uganda. A representative sample of lost patients was tracked in the community to obtain updated information about care at other ART sites. Updated outcomes were incorporated with probability weights to obtain "corrected" estimates of retention for the entire clinic population. We used the competing risks approach to estimate "connection to care"--the percentage of patients accessing care over time (including those who died while in care).Among 3,628 patients, 829 became lost, 128 were tracked and in 111, updated information was obtained. Of 111, 79 (71%) were alive and 35/48 (73%) of patients interviewed in person were in care and on ART. Patient retention for the clinic population assuming lost patients were not in care was 82.3%, 68.9%, and 60.1% at 1, 2 and 3 years. Incorporating updated care information from the sample of lost patients increased estimates of patient retention to 85.8% to 90.9%, 78.9% to 86.2% and 75.8% to 84.7% at the same time points.Accounting for "silent transfers" and early deaths increased estimates of patient retention and connection to care substantially. Deaths soon after the last clinic visit (potentially reflecting limitations in clinical effectiveness) and disconnection from care among patient who were alive each accounted for approximately half of failures of retention

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Comparison of Methods to Correct Survival Estimates and Survival Regression Analysis on a Large HIV African Cohort

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses

Attrition among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)- Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy in China, 2003–2010

BACKGROUND: Mortality and morbidity from HIV have dramatically decreased in both high- and low-income countries. However, some patients may not benefit from combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) because of inadequate access to HIV care, including attrition after care initiation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study population included all HIV-infected patients receiving cART through the Chinese National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2010 (n = 106,542). We evaluated retention in HIV care and used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to identify independent factors predictive of attrition. The cumulative probability of attrition from cART initiation was 9% at 12 months, 13% at 18 months, 16% at 24 months and 24% at 60 months. A number of factors were associated with attrition, including younger age, male gender, and being single or divorced. Patients with higher CD4 cell counts at cART initiation were more likely to drop out of HIV care. The proportion of patients remaining in HIV care increased in more recent calendar years and among patients who initiated modern cART regimens. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Retention in HIV care is essential for optimizing individual and public health outcomes. Attrition, even the degree observed in our study, can lead to premature morbidity and mortality, and possibly affect further transmission of HIV and HIV resistant drug variants. Effective strategies to promote retention in HIV care programs are needed. In China these strategies may include focusing particularly on younger male patients and those with higher CD4 cell counts at therapy initiation

Not All Are Lost: Interrupted Laboratory Monitoring, Early Death, and Loss to Follow-Up (LTFU) in a Large South African Treatment Program

Background: Many HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings are plagued by high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU). Most studies have not distinguished between those who briefly interrupt, but return to care, and those more chronically lost to follow-up. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 11,397 adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 71 Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference/Catholic Relief Services HIV treatment clinics between January 2004 and December 2008. We distinguished among patients with early death, within the first 7 months on ART; patients with interruptions in laboratory monitoring (ILM), defined as missing visits in the first 7 months on ART, but returning to care by 12 months; and those LTFU, defined as missing all follow-up visits in the first 12 months on ART. We used multilevel logistic regression models to determine patient and clinic-level characteristics associated with these outcomes. Results: In the first year on ART, 60% of patients remained in care, 30% missed laboratory visits, and 10% suffered early death. Of the 3,194 patients who missed laboratory visits, 40% had ILM, resuming care by 12 months. After 12 months on ART, patients with ILM had a 30% increase in detectable viremia compared to those who remained in care. Risk of LTFU decreased with increasing enrollment year, and was lowest for patients who enrolled in 2008 compared to 2004 [OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.39–0.62]. Conclusions: In a large community-based cohort in South Africa, nearly 30% of patients miss follow-up visits for CD4 monitoring in the first year after starting ART. Of those, 40% have ILM but return to clinic with worse virologic outcomes than those who remain in care. The risk of chronic LTFU decreased with enrollment year. As ART availability increases, interruptions in care may become more common, and should be accounted for in addressing program LTFU