Environmental management policy analysis using complex system simulation

The two primary modules of Envirosim (the model of Los Alamos TA-55 and the WIPP transport/storage model) have been combined into one application, with the simulated waste generated by TA-55 operations being fed to storage, packaging, and transport simulation entities. Three simulation scenarios were executed which demonstrate the usefulness of Envirosim as a policy analysis tool for use in planning shipments to WIPP. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been implemented using IDL (Interactive Data Language) which allows the analyst to easily view simulation results. While IDL is not necessarily the graphics interface that would be selected for a production version of Envirosim, it does provide some powerful data manipulation capabilities, and it runs on a variety of platforms

Inclusion of Hermetia Illucens larvae or prepupae in an experimental extruded feed: process optimisation and impact on in vitro digestibility

This study investigated the effect of extrusion on digestibility of different blends containing Hermetia illucens (HI) larvae or prepupae. Five blends of HI larvae or prepupae and wheat flour, in a ratio of 25:75, with or without sunflower oil addition, have been formulated as follows: prepupae\u2009+\u2009wheat (no oil); prepupae\u2009+\u2009wheat (low oil); prepupae\u2009+\u2009wheat (medium oil); prepupae\u2009+\u2009wheat (high oil); larvae\u2009+\u2009wheat (no oil). Ether extract (EE) content in different blend was 31.5, 38.9, 46.3, 53.7 and 46.27\u2009g\u2009kg 121 on wet basis (wb), respectively. Blends were homogeneous for moisture (238.9\u2009g\u2009kg 121) and crude protein (112.6\u2009g\u2009kg 121 wb). Feed blends were extruded by a co-rotating, conical twin-screw mini extruder and net torque value (NTV) was recorded as indicator of extrudability. The best performing blend was furtherly tested at four barrel temperatures (60, 70, 80 and 90\u2009\ub0C). In vitro organic matter digestibility (OMD) and in vitro crude protein digestibility (CPD) were measured to evaluate the effect of extrusion process on nutritional value. Increasing the blend EE content up to 53.74\u2009g kg 121 wb, NTV was reduced by four times (<100 Ncm) compared to 31.5 and 38.9\u2009g kg 121 wb EE blends. The best performing mixture was larvae\u2009+\u2009wheat (no oil). Extrusion process increased OMD but not CPD compared to unextruded control, while different extrusion temperature did not affect OMD nor CPD. Concluding, extrusion can contribute to increase OMD in insect containing feed blends. EE content in the blends is a key variable that should be defined in the process

Sustained safety and performance of the second-generation drug-eluting absorbable metal scaffold in patients with de novo coronary lesions: 12-month clinical results and angiographic findings of the BIOSOLVE-II first-in-man trial.

Metal absorbable scaffolds constitute a conceptually attractive alternative to polymeric scaffolds. Promising 6-month outcomes of a second-generation drug-eluting absorbable metal scaffold (DREAMS 2G), consisting of an absorbable magnesium scaffold backbone, have been reported. We assessed the 12-month safety and performance of this novel device. The prospective, international, multi-centre, first-in-man BIOSOLVE-II trial enrolled 123 patients with up to two de novo lesions with a reference diameter between 2.2 and 3.7 mm. All patients were scheduled for angiographic follow-up at 6 months, and-if subjects consented-at 12 months. Dual antiplatelet therapy was recommended for 6 months. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) parameters remained stable from 6 to 12 months [paired data of 42 patients: in-segment late lumen loss 0.20 ± 0.21 mm vs. 0.25 ± 0.22 mm, P = 0.117, Δ 0.05 ± 0.21 mm (95% CI: -0.01;0.12); in-scaffold late lumen loss 0.37 ± 0.25 mm vs. 0.39 ± 0.27 mm, P = 0.446, Δ 0.03 ± 0.22 (95% CI: -0.04;0.10), respectively]. Intravascular ultrasound and optical coherence tomography findings corroborated the QCA results. Target lesion failure occurred in four patients (3.4%), consisting of one death of unknown cause, one target-vessel myocardial infarction, and two clinically driven target lesion revascularization. No additional event occurred beyond the 6-month follow-up. During the entire follow-up of 12 months, none of the patients experienced a definite or probable scaffold thrombosis. The novel drug-eluting metal absorbable scaffold DREAMS 2G showed a continuous favourable safety profile up to 12 months and stable angiographic parameters between 6 and 12 months. NCT01960504

De visserskaai te Oostende (prov. West-Vlaanderen): archeologie van een in de 17de eeuw zwaar geteisterde stad

The Institute for the Archaeological Heritage of the Flemish Community (IAP) has, in close collaboration with the town of Ostend, carried out archaeological excavations during the construction works of the car park below the Visserskaai at Ostend from September 1998 till February 1999. This archaeological work mainly produced information on the eastern ramparts of Ostend and their evolution from the 16th century onwards together with information on the material culture of the inhabitants of Ostend during this same period. The town of Ostend had no defences until late in the 16th century as initial construction work for the defences only started in 1572 when the town came into northern hands. In the beginning of the 17th century Ostend managed to withstand successfully, with its newly built ramparts, for three years an overwhelming Spanish army siege. This was only possible thanks to the fact that the Spaniards never managed to seal of Ostend completely from the sea. As a result, victuals and soldiers arrived continuously at Ostend during the siege. It was only after the arrival of Spinola in the besieging camp, at the end of 1603, that Ostend was gradually forced to surrender. At the bottom of the excavated car park trench, some 4 m below the actual street level, wooden structures of the earthen ramparts were preserved (figs. 4-5). The presence of these con- firms historical data about the use of wood to strengthen the earthen ramparts. The excavations however documented mainly features from 2 bastions, the Peckels bastion and the Spanish bastion (fig. 2-3). Human burials and a gunpowder-magazine (figs. 7, 8, 10, 12) were uncovered in the Peckels bastion and human burials and an open-air rainwater reservoir were detected in the Spanish bastion. The human burials are studied elsewhere in this volume together with other post-medieval burials from Ostend recently discovered outside regular cemeteries. Archaeological material found in connection with the gunpowder-magazine in the Peckelf bastion dates from the 2nd half of the 16th /1st half of the 17th century (figs. 6,9,13-15) and suggests that the construction of this gunpowder-magazine? has to be situated somewhere in the middle of the 17th century, in other words in the period when the town defences of Ostend were adapted to new standards after the above- mentioned siege. A typical object related to the siege is a funnel-shaped gunpowder-flask in a copper-alloy (fig. 6). The inner wall of the gunpowder-magazine was erected on a framework of horizontal wooden beams, which were themselves resting on vertically placed and sharpened beams, mainly in oak (fig. 8). A dendrochronological analysis of the vertically placed beams produced a terminus post quem, which is far too early to be of any help in the discussion on the gunpowder-magazine. The technical differences between the inner and outer wall of the gunpowder-magazine suggest at least 2 phases for this building. The above-mentioned ceramics consist of redwares, Rhenish stone- wares a.o. Raeren, maiolicas, Weser slipwares, olive jars from Seville and some whitewares with green or yellow glaze. The archaeological material from the open- air rainwater reservoir in the Spanish bastion dates from the 2nd half of the 17th/1st half of the 19th century but mainly from the 18th century (figs. 16-32). The collection of ceramics from this context is largely dominated by tablewares. Among these stonewares are nearly missing and replaced by faience, china and industrial white- wares (pearl and cream wares). Maiolica has been nearly completely replaced by faience. Maiolicas remain in fact only important as wall-tiles. The collection contains some olive jars from Seville, a bowl from Dèsvres and a few products from Beauvais. The collection of china mainly consists of cups and small dishes in blue and white china. The china has been brought to Ostend in great quantities in the 18th century, first by the Ostend Company and later by mariners from Ostend in Foreign Service, mainly as ship's ballast. Besides ceramics this context also produced several finds in leather, glass, stone and metal. The leather finds mainly consist of shoes. The glass collection is largely dominated by cylindrical and globular bottles of which one was still intact including its cork (fig. 26: 1). Metal is represented by 22 cast iron cannon balls (fig. 28) and by a standard measure for bottles from an unidentified town inspector of measures and weights of Ostend with GS initials (fig. 27: 8). Small quantities of animal remains were found dispersed over many contexts within the site's stratigraphy. Only three of them are meaningful: a deposit found under the floor of the gunpowder-magazine (table 1: context A), an assemblage excavated in leveling layers within the Peckels bastion (table 1: context B), and material found in the water reservoir in the Spanish bastion (table 1: context C). All connections consisted of larger material; sieved samples did not yield meaningful numbers of smaller animal remains. Context A dates from the second half of the 16th to the first half of the 17th century and consists of consumption refuse: marine molluscs, marine fish bones, bird bone and the remains of cattle, sheep and pig. Context B is contemporaneous to context A and also represents consumption refuse with a similar composition. Remarkable are only a series of vertebrae of a large specimen of ling, a fish that must have been caught in northern waters, and a number of skeletal elements of a gurnard species. Context C has a younger date (second half of the 17th century to the first half of the 19th century) and has a mixed origin in terms of the taphonomy of the animal remains. Not only consumption refuse is present but also parts of the skeletons of at least four dogs and a horse. It is possible that all three contexts represent secondary refuse; in any case their provenance remains unknown. The material certainly has limited value for the interpretation of former consumption patterns. A feature of special interest is the presence of a few cowrie shells. Several aspects of the material culture reflect the maritime character of the town: the presence of several imports such as olive jars from Seville and specific objects as a token in lead (fig. 13: 16) probably used by skippers for the payment of fees and/or tolls. The presence of an important percentage of china and of some cowrie shells is probably related to the activities of the Ostend Company in the l8th century. The pottery discovered from both contexts (2nd half 16th century/ 1 st half 17th century and 2nd half 17th century/ 1st half 19th century) follows the general trends described for post-medieval Flanders

Statistical Outliers and Dragon-Kings as Bose-Condensed Droplets

A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns, city-size distributions (e.g., Paris in France and London in the UK), in material failure, epileptic seizure intensities, and other systems. Within our theory, the large outliers are interpreted as droplets of Bose-Einstein condensate: the appearance of outliers is a natural consequence of the occurrence of Bose-Einstein condensation controlled by the relative degree of attraction, or utility, of the largest entities. For large populations, Zipf's law is recovered (except for the dragon-king outliers). The theory thus provides a parsimonious description of the possible coexistence of a power law distribution of event sizes (Zipf's law) and dragon-king outliers.Comment: Latex file, 16 pages, 1 figur

Global Patterns of City Size Distributions and Their Fundamental Drivers

Urban areas and their voracious appetites are increasingly dominating the flows of energy and materials around the globe. Understanding the size distribution and dynamics of urban areas is vital if we are to manage their growth and mitigate their negative impacts on global ecosystems. For over 50 years, city size distributions have been assumed to universally follow a power function, and many theories have been put forth to explain what has become known as Zipf's law (the instance where the exponent of the power function equals unity). Most previous studies, however, only include the largest cities that comprise the tail of the distribution. Here we show that national, regional and continental city size distributions, whether based on census data or inferred from cluster areas of remotely-sensed nighttime lights, are in fact lognormally distributed through the majority of cities and only approach power functions for the largest cities in the distribution tails. To explore generating processes, we use a simple model incorporating only two basic human dynamics, migration and reproduction, that nonetheless generates distributions very similar to those found empirically. Our results suggest that macroscopic patterns of human settlements may be far more constrained by fundamental ecological principles than more fine-scale socioeconomic factors

The additional value of patient-reported health status in predicting 1-year mortality after invasive coronary procedures: A report from the Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularisation

Objective: Self-perceived health status may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. The Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization (EHS-CR) provided an opportunity to explore whether impaired health status was a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing angiographic procedures. Methods: Data from the EHS-CR that included 5619 patients from 31 member countries of the European Society of Cardiology were used. Inclusion criteria for the current study were completion of a self-report measure of health status, the EuroQol Questionnaire (EQ-5D) at discharge and information on 1-year follow-up, resulting in a study population of 3786 patients. Results: The 1-year mortality was 3.2% (n = 120). Survivors reported fewer problems on the five dimensions of the EQ-5D as compared with non-survivors. A broad range of potential confounders were adjusted for, which reached a p<0.10 in the unadjusted analyses. In the adjusted analyses, problems with self-care (OR 3.45; 95% CI 2.14 to 5.59) and a low rating (≤ 60) on health status (OR 2.41; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.94) were the most powerful independent predictors of mortality, among the 22 clinical variables included in the analysis. Furthermore, patients who reported no problems on all five dimensions had significantly lower 1-year mortality rates (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.28 to 0.81). Conclusions: This analysis shows that impaired health status is associated with a 2-3-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with CAD, independent of other conventional risk factors. These results highlight the importance of including patients' subjective experience of their own health status in the evaluation strategy to optimise risk stratification and management in clinical practice