Properties of the Power Envelope for Tests Against Both Stationary and Explosive Alternatives: The Effect of Trends

This paper details a precise analytic e¤ect that inclusion of a linear trend has on the power of Neyman-Pearson point optimal unit root tests and thence the power envelope. Both stationary and explosive alternatives are considered. The envelope can be characterized by probabilities for two, related, sums of chi-square random variables. A stochastic expansion, in powers of the local-to-unity parameter, of the di¤erence between these loses its leading term when a linear trend is included. This implies that the power envelope converges to size at a faster rate, which can then be exploited to prove that the power envelope must necessarily be lower. This e¤ect is shown to be, analytically, greater asymptotically than in small samples and numerically far greater for explosive than for stationary alternatives. Only a linear trend has a speci…c rate e¤ect on the power envelope, however other deterministic variables will have some e¤ect. The methods of the paper lead to a simple direct measure of this e¤ect which is then informative about power, in practice

Globalization and U.S. Wages: Modifying Classic Theory to Explain Recent Facts

This paper seeks to review how globalization might explain the recent trends in real and relative wages in the United States. We begin with an overview of what is new during the last 10-15 years in globalization, productivity, and patterns of U.S. earnings. To preview our results, we then work through four main findings: First, there is only mixed evidence that trade in goods, intermediates, and services has been raising inequality between more- and less-skilled workers. Second, it is more possible, although far from proven, that globalization has been boosting the real and relative earnings of superstars. The usual trade-in-goods mechanisms probably have not done this. But other globalization channels—such as the combination of greater tradability of services and larger market sizes abroad—may be playing an important role. Third, seeing this possible role requires expanding standard Heckscher-Ohlin trade models, partly by adding insights of more recent research with heterogeneous firms and workers. Finally, our expanded trade framework offers new insights on the sobering fact of pervasive real-income declines for the large majority of Americans in the past decade

Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI : an Extreme Bounds Analysis

Understanding what determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. This paper applies Extreme Bounds Analysis to identify the robust determinants of FDI using panel data covering 168 countries from 1970 to 2006. We consider 58 potential economic, geographic and political determinants and find that almost one-third are robust, including: openness, education, government spending, corporate tax rate, infrastructure, experience of conflict, democratic governance, natural resources, geographic location, number of borders, coastal location and language

Non-tariff and overall protection: evidence across countries and over time

This paper analyzes the evolution of the incidence and intensity of non-tariff measures (NTMs). It extends earlier work by measuring protection from NTMs over time from a newly available database and provides evidence on the evolution of NTMs. In particular, building on Kee, Nicita and Olarreaga (2009), this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs for 97 countries at the product level over the period 1997 to 2015. We show that the incidence and the intensity of NTMs were both increasing over this period, with NTMs becoming an even more dominant source of trade protection. We are also able to investigate the evolution of overall protection derived jointly fromtariffs and NTMs. The results show that the overall protection level, for most countries and products, has not decreased despite the fall in tariffs associated with multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements in recent decades. We also document an increase in overall trade protection during the recent 2008 financial crisis. Overall, this study sheds light on an under-researched aspect of trade liberalization: the proliferation and increase of NTMs

Revisiting the influence of institutional forces on the written business plan:A replication study

The present paper re-analyzes and extends a study on institutional forces and the written business plan (Honig and Karlsson in J Manag 30(1):29–48, 2004). We attempt to examine to what extent critical decision making is evident in model and variable choice, and whether the implications provided by systematic replication efforts may serve to provide additional and perhaps unrecognized theoretical and/or empirical observations. We find that the key result—formal business planning does not affect performance, does not hold. In fact, we find evidence that formal business planning affects survival but not profitability. The re-analysis also reveals, that institutional antecedents to formal planning appear to be fragile and prone to researcher biases due to different coding and assumptions. Our study underscores the consequences of access to original data and coding material, and to rely upon current methodological explanations for subsequent analyses

An examination of the long-term business value of investments in information technology

In this paper, we examine the effects of investments in Information Technology (IT) on the long term business values of organizations. The regression discontinuity design is used in this research to examine eight hundred and ten IT investment announcements collected from the period 1982–2007. Our results found that press releases can affect the market value of a firm by possibly providing investors with a better idea of a firm’s current and future operations and strategy. On the other hand, these press releases also appear to attract more transient investors. The attraction of transient investors likely suggests the market believes the IT investing firm is serious about its potential for growth and expansion

The effect of low temperature and low light intensity on nutrient removal from municipal wastewater by purple phototrophic bacteria (PPB)

There has been increased interest in alternative wastewater treatment systems to improve nutrient recovery while achieving acceptable TCOD, TN, and TP discharge limits. Purple phototrophic bacteria (PPB) have a high potential for simultaneous nutrient removal and recovery from wastewater. This study evaluated the PPB performance and its growth at different operating conditions with a focus on HRT and light optimization using a continuous-flow membrane photobioreactor (PHB). Furthermore, the effect of low temperature on PPB performance was assessed to evaluate the PPB’s application in cold-climate regions. In order to evaluate PPB performance, TCOD, TN, and TP removal efficiencies and Monod kinetic parameters were analyzed at different HRTs (36, 18, and 9 h), at temperatures of 22°C and 11°C and infrared (IR) light intensities of 50, 3, and 1.4 Wm-2. The results indicated that low temperature had no detrimental impact on PPB’s performance. The photobioreactor (PHB) with cold-enriched PPB has a high potential to treat municipal wastewater with effluent concentrations below target limits (TCOD˂ 50mgL-1, TN˂10 mgL-1, and TP˂1 mgL-1). Monod kinetic parameters Ks, K, Y, and Kd were estimated at 20-29 mgCODL-1, 1.6-1.9 mgCOD(mgVSS.d)-1, 0.47 mgVSS mgCOD-1, and 0.07-0.08 d-1 at temperatures of 11°C-22°C respectively. The results of the steady-state mass balances showed TCOD, TN, and TP recoveries of 80%-86%, which reflected PPB’s substrate and nutrient assimilation. Previous studies utilized high light intensities (˃ 50 Wm-2) to provide PPB with the maximum energy required for its growth. In order to enable the PPB technology as a practical approach in municipal wastewater treatment, light intensity must be optimized. Based on the literature, there is no study on PPB performance at low light intensities using a continuous-flow membrane photobioreactor. The effect of low light intensities of 3, and 1.4 Wm-2 on PPB performance was addressed in this study. The results indicated that PPB at a light intensity as low as 1.4 Wm-2 were able to treat municipal wastewater with effluent concentrations below above-mentioned target limits. Light intensity (1-50 Wm-2) had no detrimental impact on PPB performance and Monod kinetic parameters. This study showed that the optimized light intensity required for municipal wastewater treatment with PPB is significantly lower than previously indicated in the literature. The energy consumptions attributed to PHB’s illumination of 3, and 1.4 Wm-2 were determined to be 1.44, and 0.67 kWh/m3 which is significantly lower than previous studies (˃ 24 kWh/m3)

S-values and Bayesian weighted all-subsets regressions

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. This paper compares and contrasts Bayesian variable-exclusion methods proposed by Eduardo Ley and coauthors with methods proposed by Raftery and Sala-i-Martin et al. and with the s-values proposed by myself. A distinction is drawn between estimation uncertainty which is the focus of Ley's research and model ambiguity which arises in Ley's work and is the focus of my own recent proposal. The discussion is organized around the prior covariance matrix, which needs to be diagonal to support all-subsets regressions. The basic question addressed here is: what aspects of the prior covariance matrix can be taken as known, what aspects can be estimated and what aspects require a sensitivity analysis because they are neither known nor estimable. When diagonality is in doubt, we are more-or-less forced into a model ambiguity sensitivity mode because the data are never rich enough credibly to estimate the full prior covariance matrix. When diagonality is assumed, the data evidence, though very limited, can help to estimate the diagonal elements, but this literature has not yet produced a compelling conventional treatment which will necessarily include both estimation uncertainty and model ambiguity as they relate both to the diagonal values and to the rest of the prior covariance matrix. But there has been a lot of progress