Landscape Ecotoxicology of Coho Salmon Spawner Mortality in Urban Streams

In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, adult coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) returning from the ocean to spawn in urban basins of the Puget Sound region have been prematurely dying at high rates (up to 90% of the total runs) for more than a decade. The current weight of evidence indicates that coho deaths are caused by toxic chemical contaminants in land-based runoff to urban streams during the fall spawning season. Non-point source pollution in urban landscapes typically originates from discrete urban and residential land use activities. In the present study we conducted a series of spatial analyses to identify correlations between land use and land cover (roadways, impervious surfaces, forests, etc.) and the magnitude of coho mortality in six streams with different drainage basin characteristics. We found that spawner mortality was most closely and positively correlated with the relative proportion of local roads, impervious surfaces, and commercial property within a basin. These and other correlated variables were used to identify unmonitored basins in the greater Seattle metropolitan area where recurrent coho spawner die-offs may be likely. This predictive map indicates a substantial geographic area of vulnerability for the Puget Sound coho population segment, a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our spatial risk representation has numerous applications for urban growth management, coho conservation, and basin restoration (e.g., avoiding the unintentional creation of ecological traps). Moreover, the approach and tools are transferable to areas supporting coho throughout western North America

Semi-field studies to better understand the impact of eave tubes on mosquito mortality and behaviour

Background: Eave tubes are a type of housing modification that provide a novel way of delivering insecticides to mosquitoes as they attempt to enter the house. The current study reports on a series of semi-field studies aimed at improving the understanding of how eave tubes might impact mosquito mortality and behaviour. Methods: Experiments were conducted using West African style experimental huts at a field site in M'be, Côte d'Ivoire. Huts were modified in various ways to determine: (i) whether mosquitoes in this field setting naturally recruit to eave tubes; (ii) whether eave tubes can reduce house entry even in the absence of screening; (iii) whether mosquitoes suffer mortality if they attempt to exit a house via treated eave tubes; and, (iv) whether screening and eave tubes might deflect mosquitoes into neighbouring houses without the intervention. Results: Ninety percent more mosquitoes (Anopheles gambiae sensu lato, and other species) entered huts through open eaves tubes compared to window slits. The addition of insecticide-treated eave tubes reduced mosquito entry by 60%, even when windows remained open. Those mosquitoes that managed to enter the huts exhibited a 64% reduction in blood feeding and a tendency for increased mortality, suggesting contact with insecticide-treated inserts prior to hut entry. When An. gambiae mosquitoes were deliberately introduced into huts with treated eave tubes, there was evidence of six times increase in overnight mortality, suggesting mosquitoes can contact treated eave tube inserts when trying to exit the hut. There was no evidence for deflection of mosquitoes from huts with screening, or screening plus eave tubes, to adjacent unmodified huts. Conclusions: Eave tubes are a potentially effective way to target Anopheles mosquitoes with insecticides. That treated eave tubes can reduce mosquito entry even when windows are open is a potentially important result as it suggests that eave tubes might not need to be combined with household screening to have an impact on malaria transmission. The absence of deflection is also a potentially important result as coverage of eave tubes and/or screening is unlikely to be 100% and it is important that households that do not have the technology are not disadvantaged by those that do

Semi-field evaluation of the cumulative effects of a "lethal House Lure" on malaria mosquito mortality

Background: There is growing interest in the potential to modify houses to target mosquitoes with insecticides or repellents as they search for human hosts. One version of this 'Lethal House Lure' approach is the In2Care® EaveTube, which consists of a section of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe fitted into a closed eave, with an insert comprising electrostatic netting treated with insecticide powder placed inside the tube. Preliminary evidence suggests that when combined with screening of doors and windows, there is a reduction in entry of mosquitoes and an increase in mortality. However, the rate of overnight mortality remains unclear. The current study used a field enclosure built around experimental huts to investigate the mortality of cohorts of mosquitoes over multiple nights. Methods: Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes were collected from the field as larvae and reared through to adult. Three-to-five days old adult females were released inside an enclosure housing two modified West African style experimental huts at a field site in M'be, Côte d'Ivoire. Huts were either equipped with insecticide-treated tubes at eave height and had closed windows (treatment) or had open windows and open tubes (controls). The number of host-seeking mosquitoes entering the huts and cumulative mortality were monitored over 2 or 4 days. Results: Very few (0-0.4%) mosquitoes were able to enter huts fitted with insecticide-treated tubes and closed windows. In contrast, mosquitoes continually entered the control huts, with a cumulative mean of 50-80% over 2 to 4 days. Baseline mortality with control huts was approximately 2-4% per day, but the addition of insecticide-treated tubes increased mortality to around 25% per day. Overall cumulative mortality was estimated to be up to 87% over 4 days when huts were fitted with tubes. Conclusion: Only 20-25% of mosquitoes contacted insecticide-treated tubes or entered control huts in a given night. However, mosquitoes continue to host search over sequential nights, and this can lead to high cumulative mortality over 2 to 4 days. This mortality should contribute to community-level reduction in transmission assuming sufficient coverage of the intervention

Ramsey and the measurement of belief

Foundations of Bayesianism is an authoritative collection of papers addressing the key challenges that face the Bayesian interpretation of probability today. Some of these papers seek to clarify the relationships between Bayesian, causal and logical reasoning. Others consider the application of Bayesianism to artificial intelligence, decision theory, statistics and the philosophy of science and mathematics. The volume includes important criticisms of Bayesian reasoning and also gives an insight into some of the points of disagreement amongst advocates of the Bayesian approach. The upshot is a plethora of new problems and directions for Bayesians to pursue.The book will be of interest to graduate students or researchers who wish to learn more about Bayesianism than can be provided by introductory textbooks to the subject. Those involved with the applications of Bayesian reasoning will find essential discussion on the validity of Bayesianism and its limits, while philosophers and others interested in pure reasoning will find new ideas on normativity and the logic of belief