Photograph of Telegram congratulating Clark on his election to the House of Assembly in 1878 from E.W. O'Sullivan who was later prominent in NSW politics.

Photograph of Telegram congratulating Clark on his election to the House of Assembly in 1878 from E.W. O'Sullivan who was later prominent in NSW politics

Added value of frailty and social support in predicting risk of 30-day unplanned re-admission or death for patients with heart failure: an analysis from OPERA-HF

Background: Models for predicting the outcome of patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) rarely take a holistic view. We assessed the ability of measures of frailty and social support in addition to demographic, clinical, imaging and laboratory variables to predict short-term outcome for patients discharged after a hospitalization for HF. Methods: OPERA-HF is a prospective observational cohort, enrolling patients hospitalized for HF in a single center in Hull, UK. Variables were combined in a logistic regression model after multiple imputation of missing data to predict the composite outcome of death or readmission at 30 days. Comparisons were made to a model using clinical variables alone. The discriminative performance of each model was internally validated with bootstrap re-sampling. Results: 1094 patients were included (mean age 77 [interquartile range 68–83] years; 40% women; 56% with moderate to severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction) of whom 213 (19%) had an unplanned re-admission and 60 (5%) died within 30 days. For the composite outcome, a model containing clinical variables alone had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.68 [95% CI 0.64–0.72]. Adding marital status, support from family and measures of physical frailty increased the AUC (p < 0.05) to 0.70 [95% CI 0.66–0.74]. Conclusions: Measures of physical frailty and social support improve prediction of 30-day outcome after an admission for HF but predicting near-term events remains imperfect. Further external validation and improvement of the model is required

Sediment removal by prairie filter strips in row-cropped ephemeral watersheds

Twelve small watersheds in central Iowa were used to evaluate the effectiveness of prairie filter strips (PFS) in trapping sediment from agricultural runoff. Four treatments with PFS of different size and location (100% rowcrop, 10% PFS of total watershed area at footslope, 10% PFS at footslope and in contour strips, 20% PFS at footslope and in contour strips) arranged in a balanced incomplete block design were seeded in July 2007. All watersheds were in bromegrass ( L.) for at least 10 yr before treatment establishment. Cropped areas were managed under a no-till, 2-yr corn ( L.)-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation beginning in 2007. About 38 to 85% of the total sediment export from cropland occurred during the early growth stage of rowcrop due to wet field conditions and poor ground cover. The greatest sediment load was observed in 2008 due to the initial soil disturbance and gradually decreased thereafter. The mean annual sediment yield through 2010 was 0.36 and 8.30 Mg ha for the watersheds with and without PFS, respectively, a 96% sediment trapping efficiency for the 4-yr study period. The amount and distribution of PFS had no significant impact on runoff and sediment yield, probably due to the relatively large width (37-78 m) of footslope PFS. The findings suggest that incorporation of PFS at the footslope position of annual rowcrop systems provides an effective approach to reducing sediment loss in runoff from agricultural watersheds under a no-till system

Economic Fluctuations and Diffusion

Stock price changes occur through transactions, just as diffusion in physical systems occurs through molecular collisions. We systematically explore this analogy and quantify the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions $N_{\Delta t}$ - and the price change $G_{\Delta t}$, for a given stock, over a time interval $[t, t+\Delta t]$. To this end, we analyze a database documenting every transaction for 1000 US stocks over the two-year period 1994-1995. We find that price movements are equivalent to a complex variant of diffusion, where the diffusion coefficient fluctuates drastically in time. We relate the analog of the diffusion coefficient to two microscopic quantities: (i) the number of transactions $N_{\Delta t}$ in $\Delta t$, which is the analog of the number of collisions and (ii) the local variance $w^2_{\Delta t}$ of the price changes for all transactions in $\Delta t$, which is the analog of the local mean square displacement between collisions. We study the distributions of both $N_{\Delta t}$ and $w_{\Delta t}$, and find that they display power-law tails. Further, we find that $N_{\Delta t}$ displays long-range power-law correlations in time, whereas $w_{\Delta t}$ does not. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that the pronounced tails of the distribution of $G_{\Delta t} are due to$w_{\Delta t}$, and that the long-range correlations previously found for$| G_{\Delta t} |$are due to$N_{\Delta t}$.Comment: RevTex 2 column format. 6 pages, 36 references, 15 eps figure

Effects of Short Range Correlations on Ca Isotopes

The effect of Short Range Correlations (SRC) on Ca isotopes is studied using a simple phenomenological model. Theoretical expressions for the charge (proton) form factors, densities and moments of Ca nuclei are derived. The role of SRC in reproducing the empirical data for the charge density differences is examined. Their influence on the depletion of the nuclear Fermi surface is studied and the fractional occupation probabilities of the shell model orbits of Ca nuclei are calculated. The variation of SRC as function of the mass number is also discussed.Comment: 11 pages (RevTex), 6 Postscript figures available upon request at [email protected] Physical Review C in prin

Game Theoretical Interactions of Moving Agents

Game theory has been one of the most successful quantitative concepts to describe social interactions, their strategical aspects, and outcomes. Among the payoff matrix quantifying the result of a social interaction, the interaction conditions have been varied, such as the number of repeated interactions, the number of interaction partners, the possibility to punish defective behavior etc. While an extension to spatial interactions has been considered early on such as in the "game of life", recent studies have focussed on effects of the structure of social interaction networks. However, the possibility of individuals to move and, thereby, evade areas with a high level of defection, and to seek areas with a high level of cooperation, has not been fully explored so far. This contribution presents a model combining game theoretical interactions with success-driven motion in space, and studies the consequences that this may have for the degree of cooperation and the spatio-temporal dynamics in the population. It is demonstrated that the combination of game theoretical interactions with motion gives rise to many self-organized behavioral patterns on an aggregate level, which can explain a variety of empirically observed social behaviors

Common Scaling Patterns in Intertrade Times of U. S. Stocks

We analyze the sequence of time intervals between consecutive stock trades of thirty companies representing eight sectors of the U. S. economy over a period of four years. For all companies we find that: (i) the probability density function of intertrade times may be fit by a Weibull distribution; (ii) when appropriately rescaled the probability densities of all companies collapse onto a single curve implying a universal functional form; (iii) the intertrade times exhibit power-law correlated behavior within a trading day and a consistently greater degree of correlation over larger time scales, in agreement with the correlation behavior of the absolute price returns for the corresponding company, and (iv) the magnitude series of intertrade time increments is characterized by long-range power-law correlations suggesting the presence of nonlinear features in the trading dynamics, while the sign series is anti-correlated at small scales. Our results suggest that independent of industry sector, market capitalization and average level of trading activity, the series of intertrade times exhibit possibly universal scaling patterns, which may relate to a common mechanism underlying the trading dynamics of diverse companies. Further, our observation of long-range power-law correlations and a parallel with the crossover in the scaling of absolute price returns for each individual stock, support the hypothesis that the dynamics of transaction times may play a role in the process of price formation.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Presented at The Second Nikkei Econophysics Workshop, Tokyo, 11-14 Nov. 2002. A subset appears in "The Application of Econophysics: Proceedings of the Second Nikkei Econophysics Symposium", editor H. Takayasu (Springer-Verlag, Tokyo, 2003) pp.51-57. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E on 25 June 200

Safer topical treatment for inflammation using 5α-tetrahydrocorticosterone in mouse models

Use of topical glucocorticoid for inflammatory skin conditions is limited by systemic and local side-effects. This investigation addressed the hypothesis that topical 5α-tetrahydrocorticosterone (5αTHB, a corticosterone metabolite) inhibits dermal inflammation without affecting processes responsible for skin thinning and impaired wound healing. The topical anti-inflammatory properties of 5αTHB were compared with those of corticosterone in C57Bl/6 male mice with irritant dermatitis induced by croton oil, whereas its effects on angiogenesis, inflammation, and collagen deposition were investigated by subcutaneous sponge implantation. 5αTHB decreased dermal swelling and total cell infiltration associated with dermatitis similarly to corticosterone after 24 h, although at a five fold higher dose, but in contrast did not have any effects after 6 h. Pre-treatment with the glucocorticoid receptor antagonist RU486 attenuated the effect of corticosterone on swelling at 24 h, but not that of 5αTHB. After 24 h 5αTHB reduced myeloperoxidase activity (representative of neutrophil infiltration) to a greater extent than corticosterone. At equipotent anti-inflammatory doses 5αTHB suppressed angiogenesis to a limited extent, unlike corticosterone which substantially decreased angiogenesis compared to vehicle. Furthermore, 5αTHB reduced only endothelial cell recruitment in sponges whereas corticosterone also inhibited smooth muscle cell recruitment and decreased transcripts of angiogenic and inflammatory genes. Strikingly, corticosterone, but not 5αTHB, reduced collagen deposition. However, both 5αTHB and corticosterone attenuated macrophage infiltration into sponges. In conclusion, 5αTHB displays the profile of a safer topical anti-inflammatory compound. With limited effects on angiogenesis and extracellular matrix, it is less likely to impair wound healing or cause skin thinning

Approximate conditional distributions of distances between nodes in a two-dimensional sensor network

When we represent a network of sensors in Euclidean space by a graph, there are two distances between any two nodes that we may consider. One of them is the Euclidean distance. The other is the distance between the two nodes in the graph, defined to be the number of edges on a shortest path between them. In this paper, we consider a network of sensors placed uniformly at random in a two-dimensional region and study two conditional distributions related to these distances. The first is the probability distribution of distances in the graph, conditioned on Euclidean distances; the other is the probability density function associated with Euclidean distances, conditioned on distances in the graph. We study these distributions both analytically (when feasible) and by means of simulations. To the best of our knowledge, our results constitute the first of their kind and open up the possibility of discovering improved solutions to certain sensor-network problems, as for example sensor localization

Interstellar MHD Turbulence and Star Formation

This chapter reviews the nature of turbulence in the Galactic interstellar medium (ISM) and its connections to the star formation (SF) process. The ISM is turbulent, magnetized, self-gravitating, and is subject to heating and cooling processes that control its thermodynamic behavior. The turbulence in the warm and hot ionized components of the ISM appears to be trans- or subsonic, and thus to behave nearly incompressibly. However, the neutral warm and cold components are highly compressible, as a consequence of both thermal instability in the atomic gas and of moderately-to-strongly supersonic motions in the roughly isothermal cold atomic and molecular components. Within this context, we discuss: i) the production and statistical distribution of turbulent density fluctuations in both isothermal and polytropic media; ii) the nature of the clumps produced by thermal instability, noting that, contrary to classical ideas, they in general accrete mass from their environment; iii) the density-magnetic field correlation (or lack thereof) in turbulent density fluctuations, as a consequence of the superposition of the different wave modes in the turbulent flow; iv) the evolution of the mass-to-magnetic flux ratio (MFR) in density fluctuations as they are built up by dynamic compressions; v) the formation of cold, dense clouds aided by thermal instability; vi) the expectation that star-forming molecular clouds are likely to be undergoing global gravitational contraction, rather than being near equilibrium, and vii) the regulation of the star formation rate (SFR) in such gravitationally contracting clouds by stellar feedback which, rather than keeping the clouds from collapsing, evaporates and diperses them while they collapse.Comment: 43 pages. Invited chapter for the book "Magnetic Fields in Diffuse Media", edited by Elisabete de Gouveia dal Pino and Alex Lazarian. Revised as per referee's recommendation