The complexity of pluralistic ignorance in Republican climate change policy support in the United States

Most Americans fail to recognize widespread public support for climate change action. Here we investigate how this phenomenon differs for Republican supporters versus opponents of several climate change policies. Surveying a representative sample of Republican voters (N = 1000), we find that misperception of in-group support for climate action is primarily restricted to Republicans already opposed to action. Specifically, those in the minority (i.e., Republicans opposed to climate action) were more likely to erroneously perceive other Republicans as holding views on climate change policy similar to their own. While Republican supporters recognize that most Republicans support climate change policy, they may be discouraged from expressing their support due to an information environment disproportionately portraying Republicans as opposed to climate change action

A prospective multicentre study in Sweden and Norway of mental distress and psychiatric morbidity in head and neck cancer patients

A Swedish/Norwegian head and neck cancer study was designed to assess prospectively the levels of mental distress and psychiatric morbidity in a heterogeneous sample of newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients. A total of 357 patients were included. The mean age was 63 years, and 72% were males. The patients were asked to answer the HAD scale (the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale) six times during 1 year. The number of possible or probable cases of anxiety or depression disorder was calculated according to standardized cut-offs. Approximately one-third of the patients scored as a possible or probable case of a major mood disorder at each measurement point during the study year. There were new cases of anxiety or depression at each time point. The anxiety level was highest at diagnosis, while depression was most common during treatment. Females were more anxious than males at diagnosis, and patients under 65 years of age scored higher than those over 65. Patients with lower performance status and more advanced disease reported higher levels of mental distress and more often scored as a probable or possible cases of psychiatric disorder. Our psychometric analyses supported the two-dimensional structure and stability of the HAD scale. The HAD scale seems to be the method of choice for getting valid information about the probability of mood disorder in head and neck cancer populations. The prevalence of psychiatric morbidity found in this study emphasizes the importance of improved diagnosis and treatment

Measures of observation impact in non-Gaussian data assimilation

ABSTRACT Non-Gaussian/non-linear data assimilation is becoming an increasingly important area of research in the Geosciences as the resolution and non-linearity of models are increased and more and more non-linear observation operators are being used. In this study, we look at the effect of relaxing the assumption of a Gaussian prior on the impact of observations within the data assimilation system. Three different measures of observation impact are studied: the sensitivity of the posterior mean to the observations, mutual information and relative entropy. The sensitivity of the posterior mean is derived analytically when the prior is modelled by a simplified Gaussian mixture and the observation errors are Gaussian. It is found that the sensitivity is a strong function of the value of the observation and proportional to the posterior variance. Similarly, relative entropy is found to be a strong function of the value of the observation. However, the errors in estimating these two measures using a Gaussian approximation to the prior can differ significantly. This hampers conclusions about the effect of the non-Gaussian prior on observation impact. Mutual information does not depend on the value of the observation and is seen to be close to its Gaussian approximation. These findings are illustrated with the particle filter applied to the Lorenz ’63 system. This article is concluded with a discussion of the appropriateness of these measures of observation impact for different situations

A comparison of variational and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference in partially observed stochastic dynamic systems

In recent work we have developed a novel variational inference method for partially observed systems governed by stochastic differential equations. In this paper we provide a comparison of the Variational Gaussian Process Smoother with an exact solution computed using a Hybrid Monte Carlo approach to path sampling, applied to a stochastic double well potential model. It is demonstrated that the variational smoother provides us a very accurate estimate of mean path while conditional variance is slightly underestimated. We conclude with some remarks as to the advantages and disadvantages of the variational smoother. © 2008 Springer Science + Business Media LLC

Land Use Patterns and the Scale of Adoption of Agroforestry in the Rural Landscapes of Padma Floodplain in Bangladesh

This research was conducted in six typical villages of Northern Bangladesh. A sample of 170 farmers was selected. Research indicates that the farmers practising agroforestry own small farms and the income of agroforestry helps them to reduce their poverty, maintain their socio-economic needs and sustain their livelihoods. Agroforestry is not a new concept in the study area. The people have been practicing agroforestry traditionally in the form of home gardens, hedgerows and alley cropping. Homestead agroforestry is an age old practice. Alley cropping and hedgerow agroforestry systems are comparatively new. Yet alley cropping is now most popular and is widely accepted in the study area because of its socio-economic advantages and environmental sustainability

Causal Connections between Water Quality and Land Use in a Rural Tropical Island Watershed: Rural Tropical Island Watershed Analysis

We examined associations between riparian canopy cover, presence or absence of cattle, rainfall, solar radiation, month of year, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, salinity, and Enterococcus concentrations in riparian surface soils with Enterococcus geometric mean in-stream water concentrations at Waipā watershed on the north side of the Hawaiian island Kaua’i. Each 1% decrease in riparian canopy cover was associated with a 4.6 most probable number (MPN)/100 ml increase of the geometric mean of Enterococcus in stream water (P < 0.05). Each unit decrease in salinity (ppt) was associated with an increase of Enterococcus by 68.2 MPN/100 ml in-stream water geometric mean concentrations (P < 0.05). Month of year was also associated with increases in stream water Enterococcus geometric mean concentrations (P < 0.05). Reducing riparian canopy cover is associated with Enterococcus increases in stream water, suggesting that decreasing riparian vegetation density could increase fecal bacteria surface runoff

Abundances of the elements in the solar system

A review of the abundances and condensation temperatures of the elements and their nuclides in the solar nebula and in chondritic meteorites. Abundances of the elements in some neighboring stars are also discussed.Comment: 42 pages, 11 tables, 8 figures, chapter, In Landolt- B\"ornstein, New Series, Vol. VI/4B, Chap. 4.4, J.E. Tr\"umper (ed.), Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag, p. 560-63

The management and survival outcomes of nasopharyngeal cancer in the Nordic countries

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