The end of secularization in Europe? A socio-demographic perspective

Much of the current debate over secularization in Europe focuses only on the direction of religious change, and pays exclusive attention to social causes. Scholars have been less attentive to shifts in the rate of religious decline, and to the role of demography – notably fertility and immigration. This article addresses both phenomena. It uses data from the European Values Surveys and European Social Survey for the period 1981-2008 to establish basic trends in religious attendance and belief across the ten countries that have been consistently surveyed. These show that religious decline is mainly occurring in Catholic European countries and has effectively ceased among post-1945 birth cohorts in six northwestern European societies where secularization began early. It also provides a cohort component projection of religious affiliation for two European countries using fertility, migration, switching and age and sex-structure parameters derived from census and immigration data. These suggest that western Europe may be more religious at the end of our century than at its beginning

Demographic Profile of the Arab Region: Realizing the Demographic Dividend. E/ESCWA/SDD/2016/Technical Paper 3

The demographic transition is a change in patterns of population growth, from high rates of fertility and mortality to low rates of fertility and mortality. At an early stage, this transition leads to a shift in the population’s age composition whereby the number of working-age persons exceeds that of economically dependent persons. More resources are then available for investment in human capital (health and education), physical capital, and economic and social development. This phase is referred to as the demographic dividend or demographic window of opportunity. Its duration varies between countries, and it is affected by various factors such as the speed of fertility decline (the faster the better), and employment and productivity rates. Today, Arab countries are registering declining fertility rates and increases in life expectancy, although at different paces and starting from different levels. They are thus at different stages of the demographic transition and of the window of opportunity. This study, aimed at analysing the demographic changes that Arab countries are undergoing, classes them in four categories: (a) Arab least developed countries (LDCs): Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen; (b) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates; (c) Mashreq countries: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, State of Palestine and Syrian Arab Republic; and (d) Maghreb countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. It gives an overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region and assesses the window of opportunity during which each country could reap the benefits of its changing population structure. Reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend is not automatic and requires an enabling policy environment. The study thus presents four case studies on countries that benefitted from their demographic window of opportunity by implementing sound policies, making recommendations for the Arab region

Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100

This paper describes the base-line data and summarizes the methodology that underlies the projections presented for 195 countries of the world by age, sex, and educational attainment, based on detailed data on education for 171 countries. These multi-dimensional cohort-component projections require a large amount of empirical information, ranging from base-year data on populations disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on educational differentials of fertility and mortality. The paper also summarizes the procedures by which the assumed trajectories for future fertility, mortality and migration were derived by combining structured expert judgments with statistical models. It also describes in detail the procedures by which assumptions on aggregate fertility, mortality and migration trends were translated into education-specific trajectories in order to then calculate the implications of alternative education scenarios

A Harmonized Dataset on Global Educational Attainment between 1970 and 2060 – An Analytical Window into Recent Trends and Future Prospects in Human Capital Development

We hereby present a dataset produced at the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) containing comprehensive time series on educational attainment and mean years of schooling (MYS). The dataset is split by 5-year age groups and sex for 171 countries and covers the period between 1970 and 2010. It also contains projections of educational attainment to 2060 based on several scenarios of demographic and educational development. The dataset is constructed around collected and harmonized empirical census and survey data sets for the projection base year. The paper presents the principles and methodology associated with the reconstruction and the projection, and how it differs from several previous exercises. It also proposes a closer look at the diffusion of education in world regions and how the existing gaps in terms of generation, gender, and geography have been evolving in the last 40 years

Immigrants' educational attainment: A mixed picture, but often higher than the average in their country of origin

The immigrants living in France and the refugees who arrived in Austria are more educated than most of the population in their country of origin. By comparison with the population in the host country, the picture is more mixed: some groups, such as immigrants from Portugal living in France, are relatively low educated, while others, such as Romanians, have more frequently completed higher education than people born in France

A Unified Theoretical Description of the Thermodynamical Properties of Spin Crossover with Magnetic Interactions

After the discovery of the phenomena of light-induced excited spin state trapping (LIESST), the functional properties of metal complexes have been studied intensively. Among them, cooperative phenomena involving low spin-high spin (spin-crossover) transition and magnetic ordering have attracted interests, and it has become necessary to formulate a unified description of both phenomena. In this work, we propose a model in which they can be treated simultaneously by extending the Wajnflasz-Pick model including a magnetic interaction. We found that this new model is equivalent to Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) Hamiltonian with degenerate levels. This model provides a unified description of the thermodynamic properties associated with various types of systems, such as spin-crossover (SC) solids and Prussian blue analogues (PBA). Here, the high spin fraction and the magnetization are the order parameters describing the cooperative phenomena of the model. We present several typical temperature dependences of the order parameters and we determine the phase diagram of the system using the mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that the magnetic interaction drives the SC transition leading to re-entrant magnetic and first-order SC transitions.Comment: 30pages, 11figure

Collective effects in spin-crossover chains with exchange interaction

The collective properties of spin-crossover chains are studied. Spin-crossover compounds contain ions with a low-spin ground state and low lying high-spin excited states and are of interest for molecular memory applications. Some of them naturally form one-dimensional chains. Elastic interaction and Ising exchange interaction are taken into account. The transfer-matrix approach is used to calculate the partition function, the fraction of ions in the high-spin state, the magnetization, susceptibility, etc., exactly. The high-spin-low-spin degree of freedom leads to collective effects not present in simple spin chains. The ground-state phase diagram is mapped out and compared to the case with Heisenberg exchange interaction. The various phases give rise to characteristic behavior at nonzero temperatures, including sharp crossovers between low- and high-temperature regimes. A Curie-Weiss law for the susceptibility is derived and the paramagnetic Curie temperature is calculated. Possible experiments to determine the exchange coupling are discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 13 color figures, published versio