Population-based mammography screening below age 50: balancing radiation-induced vs prevented breast cancer deaths

Introduction:Exposure to ionizing radiation at mammography screening may cause breast cancer. Because the radiation risk increases with lower exposure age, advancing the lower age limit may affect the balance between screening benefits and risks. The present study explores the benefit-risk ratio of screening before age 50.Methods:The benefits of biennial mammography screening, starting at various ages between 40 and 50, and continuing up to age 74 were examined using micro-simulation. In contrast with previous studies that commonly used excess relative risk models, we assessed the radiation risks using the latest BEIR-VII excess abso

The cost-effectiveness of different visual acuity screening strategies in three European countries: a microsimulation study

Childhood vision screening programmes in Europe differ by age, frequency and location at which the child is screened, and by the professional who performs the test. The aim of this study is to compare the cost-effectiveness for three countries with different health care structures. We developed a microsimulation model of amblyopia. The natural history parameters were calibrated to a Dutch observational study. Sensitivity, specificity, attendance, lost to follow-up and costs in the three countries were based on the EUSCREEN Survey. Quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated using assumed utility loss for unilateral persistent amblyopia (1%) and bilateral visual impairment (8%). We calculated the cost-effectiveness of screening (with 3.5% annual discount) by visual acuity measurement at age 5 years or 4 and 5 years in the Netherlands by nurses in child healthcare centres, in England and Wales by orthoptists in schools and in Romania by urban kindergarten nurses. We compared screening at various ages and with various frequencies. Assuming an amblyopia prevalence of 36 per 1,000 children, the model predicted that 7.2 cases of persistent amblyopia were prevented in the Netherlands, 6.6 in England and Wales and 4.5 in Romania. The cost-effectiveness was €24,159, €19,981 and €23,589, per QALY gained respectively, compared with no screening. Costs/QALY was influenced most by assumed utility loss of unilateral persistent amblyopia. For all three countries, screening at age 5, or age 4 and 5 years were optimal. Despite differences in health care structure, vision screening by visual acuity measurement seemed cost-effective in all three countries

Overdetection, overtreatment and costs in prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer

Background:Prostate cancer screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has shown to reduce prostate cancer mortality in the European Randomised study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial. Overdetection and overtreatment are substantial unfavourable side effects with consequent healthcare costs. In this study the effects of introducing widespread PSA screening is evaluated.Methods:The MISCAN model was used to simulate prostate cancer growth and detection in a simulated cohort of 100 000 men (European standard population) over 25 years. PSA screening from age 55 to 70 or 75, with 1, 2 and 4-year-intervals is simulated. Number of diagnoses, PSA tests, biopsies, treatments, deaths and corresponding costs for 100 000 men and for United Kingdom and United States are compared.Results:Without screening 2378 men per 100 000 were predicted to be diagnosed with prostate cancer compared with 4956 men after screening at 4-year intervals. By introducing screening, the costs would increase with 100% to \[euro]60 695 000. Overdetection is related to 39% of total costs (\[euro]23 669 000). Screening until age 75 is relatively most expensive because of the costs of overtreatment.Conclusion:Introduction of PSA screening will increase total healthcare costs for prostate cancer substantially, of which the actual screening costs will be a small part

Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: Benefits and harms according to prognostic factors

Background:Men with screen-detected prostate cancer can choose to undergo immediate curative treatment or enter into an expectant management programme. We quantified how the benefits and harms of immediate treatment vary according to the prognostic factors of clinical T-stage, Gleason score, and patient age.Methods:A microsimulation model based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data was used to predict the benefits and harms of immediate treatment versus delayed treatment of local-regional prostate cancer in men aged 55-74 years. Benefits included life-years gained and reduced probability of death from prostate cancer. Harms included lead time and probability of overdiagnosis.Results:The ratio of mean lead time to mean life-years gained ranged from 1.8 to 31.2, and the additional number of treatments required per prostate cancer death prevented ranged from 0.3 to 11.6 across the different prognostic groups. Both harm-benefit ratios were lowest, most favourable, for men aged 55-59 years and diagnosed with moderate-risk prostate cancer. Ratios were high for men aged 70-74 years regardless of clinical T-stage and Gleason score.Conclusion:Men aged 55-59 years with moderate-risk prostate cancer are predicted to derive greatest benefit from immediate curative treatment. Immediate treatment is least favourable for men aged 70-74 years with either low-risk or high-risk prostate cancer

Prediction of pathological stage in patients with prostate cancer: a neuro-fuzzy model

The prediction of cancer staging in prostate cancer is a process for estimating the likelihood that the cancer has spread before treatment is given to the patient. Although important for determining the most suitable treatment and optimal management strategy for patients, staging continues to present significant challenges to clinicians. Clinical test results such as the pre-treatment Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) level, the biopsy most common tumor pattern (Primary Gleason pattern) and the second most common tumor pattern (Secondary Gleason pattern) in tissue biopsies, and the clinical T stage can be used by clinicians to predict the pathological stage of cancer. However, not every patient will return abnormal results in all tests. This significantly influences the capacity to effectively predict the stage of prostate cancer. Herein we have developed a neuro-fuzzy computational intelligence model for classifying and predicting the likelihood of a patient having Organ-Confined Disease (OCD) or Extra-Prostatic Disease (ED) using a prostate cancer patient dataset obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network. The system input consisted of the following variables: Primary and Secondary Gleason biopsy patterns, PSA levels, age at diagnosis, and clinical T stage. The performance of the neuro-fuzzy system was compared to other computational intelligence based approaches, namely the Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy C-Means, Support Vector Machine, the Naive Bayes classifiers, and also the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram which is commonly used by clinicians. A comparison of the optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) points that were identified using these approaches, revealed that the neuro-fuzzy system, at its optimal point, returns the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), with a low number of false positives (FPR = 0.274, TPR = 0.789, AUC = 0.812). The proposed approach is also an improvement over the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram (FPR = 0.032, TPR = 0.197, AUC = 0.582)

Interpreting Overdiagnosis Estimates in Population-based Mammography Screening

Estimates of overdiagnosis in mammography screening range from 1% to 54%. This review explains such variations using gradual implementation of mammography screening in the Netherlands as an example. Breast cancer incidence without screening was predicted with a micro-simulation model. Observed breast cancer incidence (including ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer) was modeled and compared with predicted incidence without screening during various phases of screening program implementation. Overdiagnosis was calculated as the difference between the modeled number of breast cancers with and the predicted number of breast cancers without screening. Estimating overdiagnosis annually between 1990 and 2006 illustrated the importance of the time at which overdiagnosis is measured. Overdiagnosis was also calculated using several estimators identified from the literature. The estimated overdiagnosis rate peaked during the implementation phase of screening, at 11.4% of all predicted cancers in women aged 0–100 years in the absence of screening. At steady-state screening, in 2006, this estimate had decreased to 2.8%. When different estimators were used, the overdiagnosis rate in 2006 ranged from 3.6% (screening age or older) to 9.7% (screening age only). The authors concluded that the estimated overdiagnosis rate in 2006 could vary by a factor of 3.5 when different denominators were used. Calculations based on earlier screening program phases may overestimate overdiagnosis by a factor 4. Sufficient follow-up and agreement regarding the chosen estimator are needed to obtain reliable estimates

Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: A model-based approach on screening intervals

Background: The optimal interval between two consecutive mammograms is uncertain. The UK Frequency Trial did not show a significant difference in breast cancer mortality between screening every year (study group) and screening every 3 years (control group). In this study, the trial is simulated in order to gain insight into the results of the trial and to predict the effect of different screening intervals on breast cancer mortality. Methods: UK incidence, life tables and information from the trial were used in the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia to simulate the trial and predict the number of breast ca

Effectiveness of grasping and duration of clamping using laparoscopic graspers

Background: Manipulating tissue with laparoscopic forceps is more difficult than using the hands. This study investigates the effectiveness of grasping and the duration or tissue-clamping using laparoscopic forceps. Methods: Video recordings of 10 laparoscopic colectomies and 15 cholecystectomies were analyzed using time-action analysis. Results: The results indicated that 62% of the grasping actions were successful: the tissue was clamped sufficiently to perform an action. Of all the clamping actions on the colon, 10% were repeated actions. On the gallbladder 7% were repeated actions. The bowel slipped out of the grasper in 7% of the clamping actions, whereas the gallbladder slipped in 17%. In 89%, the colon was clamped less than 1 min. The maximum clamping time was 7 min for the colon, and 55 min for the gallbladder. Conclusion: The low percentage of successful grasping actions indicates that the design of laparoscopic graspers is not optima