Role of environmental poliovirus surveillance in global polio eradication and beyond

Environmental poliovirus surveillance (ENV) means monitoring of poliovirus (PV) transmission in human populations by examining environmental specimens supposedly contaminated by human faeces. The rationale is based on the fact that PV-infected individuals, whether presenting with disease symptoms or not, shed large amounts of PV in the faeces for several weeks. As the morbidity:infection ratio of PV infection is very low, this fact contributes to the sensitivity of ENV which under optimal conditions can be better than that of the standard acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. The World Health Organization has included ENV in the new Strategic Plan of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative for years 2010-2012 to be increasingly used in PV surveillance, supplementing AFP surveillance. In this paper we review the feasibility of using ENV to monitor wild PV and vaccine-derived PV circulation in human populations, based on global experiences in defined epidemiological situation

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding

Understanding the Impact of Male Circumcision Interventions on the Spread of HIV in Southern Africa

BACKGROUND: Three randomised controlled trials have clearly shown that circumcision of adult men reduces the chance that they acquire HIV infection. However, the potential impact of circumcision programmes--either alone or in combination with other established approaches--is not known and no further field trials are planned. We have used a mathematical model, parameterised using existing trial findings, to understand and predict the impact of circumcision programmes at the population level. FINDINGS: Our results indicate that circumcision will lead to reductions in incidence for women and uncircumcised men, as well as those circumcised, but that even the most effective intervention is unlikely to completely stem the spread of the virus. Without additional interventions, HIV incidence could eventually be reduced by 25-35%, depending on the level of coverage achieved and whether onward transmission from circumcised men is also reduced. However, circumcision interventions can act synergistically with other types of prevention programmes, and if efforts to change behaviour are increased in parallel with the scale-up of circumcision services, then dramatic reductions in HIV incidence could be achieved. In the long-term, this could lead to reduced AIDS deaths and less need for anti-retroviral therapy. Any increases in risk behaviours following circumcision, i.e. 'risk compensation', could offset some of the potential benefit of the intervention, especially for women, but only very large increases would lead to more infections overall. CONCLUSIONS: Circumcision will not be the silver bullet to prevent HIV transmission, but interventions could help to substantially protect men and women from infection, especially in combination with other approaches

Risk factors for concordant HIV infection in heterosexual couples in Trinidad.

Risk factors for HIV infection in partners of HIV-seropositive index cases were investigated in a cross-sectional survey. Between September 1992 and April 1994 a total of 251 HIV-infected persons and 76 of their sexual partners were interviewed at the main sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) clinic in Trinidad. All participants gave signed consent and responded to a questionnaire. Sixty-four couples had risks for HIV infection through heterosexual intercourse only. However, many recruited sex partners (57/64) reported heterosexual intercourse with persons in addition to the index cases. Overall HIV concordance (both index case and partner HIV infected) was 45% in the couples. HIV concordance was not found to be related to the sexual practices within the studied unions nor to the clinical status of the index case. After allowing for confounding factors there was an increased risk for HIV concordance in couples in unions for > or = 1 year (adjusted OR 3.48; 95% CI 0.89-13.69, P = 0.055), and in those in which sex partners had a past history of genital sores (adjusted for prostitution: OR 4.50; 95% CI 1.01-20.4). Interventions targeted at reducing high-risk sexual behaviour, prostitution and cocaine use could be beneficial in reducing the spread of STDs and HIV in Trinidad

Intestinal parasitic infections in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive and HIV-negative individuals in San Pedro Sula, Honduras

Honduras has at least five-times more human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals than any other country in Central America. The relationship between HIV status and the presence of intestinal parasites in this part of the world is unknown. This study presents the results from a prospective, comparative study for the presence of parasites in 52 HIV-positive and 48 HIV-negative persons in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. Infection with HIV was determined by microagglutination and confirmed by Western blot analysis. Parasites were detected in stools using formalin-ether concentration, and Kinyoun and trichrome staining. Age, sex, and clinical state of HIV infection were recorded for each study participant. Our results indicate that Cryptosporidium parvum and Strongyloides stercoralis, which are intracellular or live in the mucosa, were found exclusively in persons infected with HIV. In comparison, the prevalence of the extracellular parasites Giardia lamblia, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in persons who were HIV-negative. Trichuris worms are in contact with the gut epithelium and less so with the mucosa, whereas Strongyloides lives within the gut mucosa. It is possible that changes in the gut epithelium due to HIV infection do not affect the mucosa and therefore would not affect Strongyloides. We conclude that infection with HIV may selectively deter the establishment of certain intestinal parasites. This may be due to the fact that HIV-induced enteropathy does not favor the establishment of extracellular parasites. Intracellular and mucosal dwelling organisms, however, may benefit from pathologic changes and reduced local immune responses induced by the virus, which, in turn, may lead to higher prevalence among HIV-infected individuals