Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux

This paper proves a certainty equivalence result for optimal policy under commitment with symmetric partial information about the state of the economy in a model with forward-looking variables. This result is used in our previous paper, Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy,' which synthesizes what is known about the case of symmetric partial information, and derives useful general formulas for computation of the optimal policy response coefficients and efficient estimates of the state of the economy in the context of a fairly general forward-looking rational-expectations model. In particular, our proof takes into account that, under commitment, the policymaker can affect the future evolution of the observable variables, and thereby potentially affect the future information available.

Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting

We examine to what extent variants of inflation-forecast targeting can avoid stabilization bias, incorporate history-dependence, and achieve determinancy of equilibrium, so as to reproduce a socially optimal equilibrium. We also evaluate these variants in terms of the transparency of the connection with the ultimate policy goals and the robustness to model perturbations. A suitably designed inflation-forecast targeting rule can achieve the social optimum and at the same time have a more transparent connection to policy goals and be more robust than competing instrument rules.

Self-fulfilling Prophecies and the Business Cycle

We demonstrate that multiple stationary rational-expectations equilibria exist in a version of Lucas's island economy. The existence of these equilibria follows from the fact that there is an indeterminate set of monetary equilibria in the two-period overlapping-generations model. We show how to construct stationary rational-expectations equilibria by randomizing over the set of nonstationary monetary equilibria. In some of our equilibria, a positively sloped Phillips curve exists even though our economy contains no signal-extraction problem as in the original Lucas paper. Our equilibria are indexed by beliefs and are examples of the existence of sunspot equilibria in which allocations may differ across states of nature for which preferences, technology, and endowments are identical. Our technique for constructing stationary sunspot equilibria should prove useful in a wide class of models in which an indeterminate stationary equilibrium exists

Novel 16S rRNA methyltransferase RmtE3 in acinetobacter baumannii ST79.

Introduction. The 16S rRNA methyltransferase (16S RMTase) gene armA is the most common mechanism conferring high-level aminoglycoside resistance in Acinetobacter baumannii, although rmtA, rmtB, rmtC, rmtD and rmtE have also been reported.Hypothesis/Gap statement. The occurrence of 16S RMTase genes in A. baumannii in the UK and Republic of Ireland is currently unknown.Aim. To identify the occurrence of 16S RMTase genes in A. baumannii isolates from the UK and the Republic of Ireland between 2004 and 2015.Methodology. Five hundred and fifty pan-aminoglycoside-resistant A. baumannii isolates isolated from the UK and the Republic of Ireland between 2004 and 2015 were screened by PCR to detect known 16S RMTase genes, and then whole-genome sequencing was conducted to screen for novel 16S RMTase genes.Results. A total of 96.5 % (531/550) of isolates were positive for 16S RMTase genes, with all but 1 harbouring armA (99.8 %, 530/531). The remaining isolates harboured rmtE3, a new rmtE variant. Most (89.2 %, 473/530) armA-positive isolates belonged to international clone II (ST2), and the rmtE3-positive isolate belonged to ST79. rmtE3 shared a similar genetic environment to rmtE2 but lacked an ISCR20 element found upstream of rmtE2.Conclusion. This is the first report of rmtE in A. baumannii in Europe; the potential for transmission of rmtE3 to other bacterial species requires further research

Impacts of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Measures of Body Composition

Fluctuations in body weight and water retention are common complaints made by many women as a result of hormonal changes that accompany menstrual cycle (MC). Specific research regarding how the different phases of the menstrual cycle may impact body composition measures have been limited, and typically are examined as a subset of other variables. As lean body tissue is approximately 73% water, fluctuations in body water due to changes in a women’s MC may influence measurements of body composition. PURPOSE: To investigate whether phases of the MC have an impact on common measures of body composition. METHODS: A total of 51 females between the ages of 18 and 45 years participated in a total of four data collection sessions. Participants reported to the exercise physiology lab once a week, at the same time of day, seven days apart, for a total of four weeks. Each week, participants self-reported the presence or absence of menses during that week, including starting or ending days. Participants completed three body composition assessments: bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), air displacement plethysmography (ADP), and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) according to manufacturer’s instructions. Physical activity patterns for the previous week were also self-reported weekly. RESULTS: RMANOVAs revealed no differences in physical activity levels between sessions for participants and that total body water amounts in participants did not change across time when measured via BIA. A 3 (device) x 4 (MC phase) RMANOVA demonstrated no significant device by phase interaction effects, nor were changes in body weight, body fat percentage, or lean body mass seen across time. However, significant differences in lean body mass measures (p = .001) between DXA and BIA (x̄ difference = 1.62 ± 0.4 kg) and DXA and ADP (x̄ difference = 1.74 ± 0.36 kg) measures were seen. CONCLUSION: Although there were no changes in body composition across the MC phases, there were differences in body composition values among the three types of devices used to quantifying body composition. These findings suggest that differences in the technology used to quantify body composition may explain varying results across studies

Women's experiences of factors affecting treatment engagement and adherence in internet delivered behavioural activation for postnatal depression

ArticleCrown Copyright © 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).Introduction Women with postnatal depression (PND) face significant barriers to treatment that may be overcome by internet based delivery of treatment. Demand for a self-help internet postnatal treatment offered via a parenting site was high, but attrition rates were also high. Aims To gain patient perspectives on engagement and barriers to the Netmums' “Helping with Depression” treatment. Method Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 participants selected from the Netmums trial. Results Thematic analysis revealed motivators and barriers to treatment. Women reported that the flexibility and anonymity of internet interventions fit with their postnatal circumstances. They identified that the relevance of the intervention to their personal circumstances, expectations of motherhood, stigma about depression and motherhood, hopelessness about their ability to improve, previous negative experiences with treatment and treatment seeking, and a lack of practical and emotional support contributed to feelings of being overwhelmed. Women who felt more overwhelmed were more likely to discontinue treatment. Women suggested that support would reduce the impact of barriers and improve adherence. Discussion Open access, self-help internet interventions are acceptable to women with postnatal depression, but it is critical to provide tailoring and support to help overcome barriers and improve treatment adherence