Oil and international cooperation

The more that states depend on oil exports, the less cooperative they become: they grow less likely to join intergovernmental organizations, to accept the compulsory jurisdiction of international judicial bodies, and to agree to binding arbitration for investment disputes. This pattern is robust to the use of country and year fixed effects, to alternative measures of the key variables, and to the exclusion of all countries in the Middle East. To explain this pattern, we consider the economic incentives that foster participation in international institutions: the desire to attract foreign investment and to gain access to foreign markets. Oil-exporting states, we argue, find it relatively easy to achieve these aims without making costly commitments to international institutions. In other words, natural resource wealth liberates states from the economic pressures that would otherwise drive them toward cooperation

Foraminiferal proliferations in the Alborz Basin (northern Iran): global responses to Early Carboniferous glaciations

© 2017 Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung and Springer-Verlag Berlin HeidelbergThe Tournaisian interval of the Mobarak Formation in the Alborz Basin (Iran) preserves a specific bed with Earlandiidae and three foraminiferal zones that are restricted to specific intervals within the late Tournaisian and correlate with northern Eurasian biostratigraphic units. The bed with Earlandiidae dates to the early Tournaisian and corresponds with the lower Tournaisian and lower part of the upper Tournaisian of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The Granuliferella latispiralis–Latiendothyranopsis zone dates back to the earliest Ivorian (MFZ4?–MFZ5) and correlates with the G. latispiralis and Spinoendothyra costifera zones of the Urals. The Eotextularia diversa zone is of earliest late Ivorian age (MFZ6) and corresponds to the lower part of the E. diversa zone of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The Endospiroplectammina venusta–Eoparastaffella ex gr. rotunda zone is of latest Ivorian (MFZ7–MFZ8) age and correlates with the upper part of the E. diversa zone and the E. rotunda zone of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The entire early Tournaisian (Hastarian) portion is devoid of recognisable foraminiferal material, which is likely linked to a faunal shift of subtropical and temperate taxa to tropical latitudes in response to the glaciations at the Devonian–Carboniferous boundary. The establishment of the G. latispiralis–Latiendothyranopsis zone coincides with the first mondial Tournaisian foraminiferal radiation. The second and third episodes of foraminiferal diversification (E. diversa and E. venusta–Eoparastaffella ex gr. rotunda) are congruent with major foraminiferal shifts from Tethyan realms to higher latitudes in response to thermal periods. The occurrence of specific foraminiferal taxa in Alborz is strongly linked to transgressions and migrations of North Palaeotethyan biotic elements. The described Tournaisian cyclic patterns in the Alborz Basin share significant similarities with those in the North American, western European and Siberian realms, indicating a link with large-scale palaeoclimatic patterns. This cyclic system correlates directly with the pacing of global eustatic sea-level fluctuations caused by climate oscillations and follows the fourth-order ocean-level fluctuations as described from other, independent proxies

Discrete-time rewards model-checked

This paper presents a model-checking approach for analyzing discrete-time Markov reward models. For this purpose, the temporal logic probabilistic CTL is extended with reward constraints. This allows to formulate complex measures – involving expected as well as accumulated rewards – in a precise and succinct way. Algorithms to efficiently analyze such formulae are introduced. The approach is illustrated by model-checking a probabilistic cost model of the IPv4 zeroconf protocol for distributed address assignment in ad-hoc networks

Understanding State Preferences With Text As Data: Introducing the UN General Debate Corpus

Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments’ perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international politics. This paper introduces a new dataset consisting of over 7,300 country statements from 1970-2014. We demonstrate how the UN General Debate Corpus (UNGDC) can be used to derive country positions on different policy dimensions using text analytic methods. The paper provides applications of these estimates, demonstrating the contribution the UNGDC can make to the study of international politics

Multiphase progenetic development shaped the brain of flying archosaurs

The growing availability of virtual cranial endocasts of extinct and extant vertebrates has fueled the quest for endocranial characters that discriminate between phylogenetic groups and resolve their neural significances. We used geometric morphometrics to compare a phylogenetically and ecologically comprehensive data set of archosaurian endocasts along the deep evolutionary history of modern birds and found that this lineage experienced progressive elevation of encephalisation through several chapters of increased endocranial doming that we demonstrate to result from progenetic developments. Elevated encephalisation associated with progressive size reduction within Maniraptoriformes was secondarily exapted for flight by stem avialans. Within Mesozoic Avialae, endocranial doming increased in at least some Ornithurae, yet remained relatively modest in early Neornithes. During the Paleogene, volant non-neoavian birds retained ancestral levels of endocast doming where a broad neoavian niche diversification experienced heterochronic brain shape radiation, as did non-volant Palaeognathae. We infer comparable developments underlying the establishment of pterosaurian brain shapes

The impact of performing gastric cancer surgery during holiday periods. A population-based study using Dutch upper gastrointestinal cancer audit (DUCA) data

Existing literature suggests inferior quality of oncologic surgery during holiday periods. This study aimed to investigate the impact of holiday periods on surgical treatment of gastric cancer in the Netherlands. This nationwide study included all gastric cancer patients undergoing potentially curative surgery registered in the Dutch Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Audit (DUCA). For each patient it was established whether they underwent surgery during or outside the 11 Dutch holiday weeks, based on date and region of surgery. Separate, single-day holidays were not included. Baseline and treatment characteristics were compared using descriptive statistics. Time from diagnosis to treatment and short-term surgical outcomes were compared using multilevel multivariable logistic regression analyses. To prevent bias from recent advancements, analyses were repeated in a recent cohort of patients (2015-2018). Between 2011-2018, 3440 patients were included in the DUCA. Some 555 (16.1%) patients underwent surgery during 11 holiday weeks. There were no differences in patient, tumor and treatment characteristics and time to treatment between holidays and non-holidays. Tumor-positive resection margins (R1/R2 vs R0) occurred more frequent during holidays (aOR:1.47, 95%CI:1.07-2.04). Subgroup analyses in a recent cohort of patients also found higher tumor-positive resection margins (aOR:1.59, 95%CI:1.01-2.43) and higher failure-to-rescue rates (aOR:2.55, 95%CI:1.18-5.49) during holidays. Even though time to treatment and patient, tumor and treatment characteristics were comparable between holidays and non-holidays, tumor-positive resection margin and failure to-rescue rates were higher during holidays. This suggests that steps must be taken to keep specialized and dedicated gastric cancer expertise up to standard during holiday periods. (C)& nbsp;2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc.& nbsp;& nbsp

Sedimentologic and paleoclimatic reconstructions of carbonate factory evolution in the Alborz Basin (northern Iran) indicate a global response to Early Carboniferous (Tournaisian) glaciations

© 2016 Elsevier B.V.The Lower Carboniferous Mobarak Formation records the development of a storm-sensitive pervasive carbonate factory on the southern Paleo-Tethyan passive margin following the opening of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean into the Alborz Basin along the northern margin of Gondwana. Its depositional facies encompass inner ramp peritidal environments, peloidal to crinoidal shoals, storm to fair-weather influenced mid-ramps, proximal to distal shell beds and low energy outer ramps. Sedimentological analyses and foraminiferal biostratigraphy reveal four events affecting carbonate platform evolution in the Alborz Basin during the Lower Carboniferous: (1) A transgression following global temperature rise in the Early Tournaisian (middle Hastarian) caused the formation of thick-bedded argillaceous limestones. This interval correlates with Early Tournaisian nodular to argillaceous limestones in the Moravia Basin (Lisen Formation, Czech Republic), the Dinant Basin (Pont d'Arcole Formation, Belgium), and at the Rhenish Slate Mountains (Lower Alum shale, Germany). (2) Late Hastarian–early Ivorian glaciations previously identified in Southern Gondwana but had not yet recognized in Northern Gondwana were recorded through a sequence boundary. (3) During the Late Tournaisian–Early Visean?, a differential block faulting regime along the basin's margin caused uplift of the westernmost parts of the Alborz Basin and resulted in subsidence in the eastern part of the central basin. This tectonically controlled shift in depositional regime caused vast sub-aerial exposure and brecciation preserved in the top of the Mobarak Formation in the western portion of the Central Alborz Basin. (4) Tectonic activity coinciding with a progressive, multiphase sea level drop caused indirectly by the Viséan and Serpukhovian glaciations phases ultimately led to the stagnation of the carbonate factory. Paleothermometry proxies, the presence of foraminiferal taxa with a northern Paleo-Tethyan affinity and evidence for arid conditions in the terrestrial hinterland place the Alborz Basin at lower latitudes than the approximately 45ο–50ο southern paleolatitude reported thus far

The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0096-4.The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks—election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. We also find evidence that richer countries from the developing world win election more often, while involvement in warfare lowers election probability. By contrast, development aid does not predict election

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic ladder-like genealogical tree. Here, we use a large-scale individual-based model to show that evolution in a Euclidean antigenic space provides a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and the epidemiological, antigenic, genealogical and geographic patterns observed in influenza virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis. Thus, selective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable and hence, in theory, predictable.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, 10 supporting figure